Saturday, January 17, 2009

Most popular relocation cities

CNBC lists the most popular cities to relocate to:
Nearly 34 million people moved in 2007, according to the U.S. Census. But where are they going? ... These 10 cities drew the most interest.
  1. Las Vegas, NV
  2. Denver, CO
  3. Charlotte, NC
  4. Phoenix/Mesa, AZ
  5. Portland, OR
  6. Seattle, WA
  7. Orlando, FL
  8. Washington, DC
  9. Atlanta, GA
  10. Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL

52 comments:

  1. All these locals are to obvious-look before the surface and actually see what they may offer-less then the hype that is given.

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  2. Vegas is a shithole, Denver is filled with wierdos, Charlotte is boring as hell, you couldn't pay me enough to live in Arizona, Portland is OK if you stay within the city...the rest are hicks, Seattle...I'd rather go to Vancouver, BC, Orlando...another shithole state, DC...crimeland, Atlanta..blah. Tampa...did I mention Florida sucks?

    I'd rather leave this country before relocating from the current shithole I live in...LA...but that's me.

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  3. RE: "Nearly 34 million people moved in 2007"

    2007? That was 2 years ago.

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  4. Forbes recently ranked DC as #2 nationwide in employment/job outlook. The inflow is not surprising.

    I haven't been here for awhile. I am encouraged to see a more balanced discussion. I'd love to see more of Neil's old predictions.

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  5. Here are Neils predictions that were 100% true.... There is a housing bubble, prices are not justified gaining 25%/year, there will be a crash, we are in a ressesion, toxic mortgages will kill Housing ( I could go on and on)...

    Here are Neils predictions that were not true... The house near the subdivision just north of Arlington by the metro just near the creek thats really a run off from the strip mall that has that new Cuircut City Mega store, did not depreciate to below 2005 levels mostly because the people there are not selling and love the night life especially with the Obamas moving into town will be the next hot spot for all things urban. That Neil how does he sleep at night knowing he got that wrong.

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  6. I see your sarcasm and raise you 20. Neil's failure(s) does not lie in a vacuum. Wishing and hoping that the desirable locales crash is not very effective. The "popcorn" crap was/is childish. I'm sure that there is an affordable house for him in Haymarket.

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  7. The thing about Neil was his INSISTENCE that Arlington would lose 40%. If he had made one or two posts on the subject, and them moved on that would be excusable.

    Thats not what happened though. He went on and on about Arlington - graphs, multiple blog entries, half baked theories "proving" arlington was hurting. He did an article on the worst markets in the US and cited Arlington as one of the "four horsemen of the apocalypse"! Even when fellow bears told him he may be wrong about Arlington, he was undeterred.

    If someone told me, "XYZ area wont get hurt much", I may question that person's rationale, but if they had a good reason for believing it, Id probably let it go. I mean who cares, I dont want to live in XYZ an area thousands of miles away from me.

    Thats the difference between Neil and myself. It was his extreme arrogance (got popcorn) in insisting that NO place is "immune" that caused people to club him. He insisted he was right about Arlington even though more and more evidence mounted about how wrong he was.

    Eventually, like so many others, he just faded away...

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  8. If you want to see more failed Neil predictions look at last winter when he was probably at the peak of his denial. Here are a few good excerpts:

    "Oh... the core of DC is only lagging the exurbs by 3 to 4 months... In other words, its not different here."
    Got Popcorn?
    Neil
    Dec 20, 2007

    YEP, -20% to -30% YOY PRICING FOR ARLINGTON - GOOD CALL NEIL!

    What about this one:

    "greater DC inventory is up 30% compared to the same day in 2007. Using ziprealty, 59,397 today versus 45,724 one year ago. Peak was 68,318 just before the end of September. Expect 18,000 to 24,000 more homes to be on the market by this year's peak."
    Got Popcorn?
    Neil
    Jan 17, 2008

    REALITY WAS WE WERE PAST PEAK AND INVENTORY WAS ON ITS WAY DOWN. GOOD CALL ON THE +18-24k MORE HOUSES!!!

    how about this - enraged that people were saying Case Shiller was not representative of Arlington:

    "So the argument that Case-Shiller is weighted towards representing undesirable ares is a red-Herring. Case-Shiller will focus on the price changes on where sales occur by how the index is weighted. In other words, desirable areas.. (sales are down more in outer counties)."
    Got Popcorn?
    Neil
    Feb 5, 2008

    SURE THING NEIL, FORGET ABOUT THE FACT THAT EVEN ON GOOD DAYS THE CORE AREAS ACCOUNT FOR LESS THAN 10% OF SALES FOR THE METRO AREA. IM SURE ALL THE FORECLOSURES IN PWC WERENT AFFECTING CASE SHILLER AT ALL!!!!

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  9. oh - and heres one of my all time favorites regarding the future of Arlington.

    "As to when 14 to 20 months of inventory (implosion level), inner DC is about one year behind San Diego. In other words... around next Christmas. So YES THE INVENTORY LEVELS WILL GET THAT BAD. The real estate market will not see enough of a 'spring bounce' in sales to overcome an unusually large 'spring bounce' in inventory."
    Got Popcorn?
    Neil
    Dec 21, 2007

    Arlington still has less than 6 months of inventory in Dec 2008 GOOD CALL THERE NEIL!!!!

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  10. Case in Point.... every little quote you posted above inside " " of Neils talks about D.C. and THEN YOU attribute it to Arlington. I will bet you think the colors you picked out for your dinning room are so esquiste that it makes your house worth an extra $125,000.

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  11. I think ANON has a big hard-on to prove Neil wrong...for whatever reason.

    We haven't even BEGUN the meltdown this year and next...so don't get so cocky.

    If you think you're on a tail end of this, you're delusional.

    Happy 2009.

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  12. I think ANON has a big hard-on to prove Neil wrong

    True.

    "We haven't even BEGUN the meltdown this year and next...so don't get so cocky."

    I know - the great thing is he made prediction after prediction for mid 2009 - cant wait til those fail too!

    "If you think you're on a tail end of this, you're delusional."

    Im sure it will get much worse. DC proper will post its biggest losses ever 7-15% - leaving it "only" 150-160% above year 2000 prices!

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  13. I think NOZ, another CA guy with no knowledge of the DC market whatsoever, will now take up Neil's position with unfounded platitutes i.e.

    "We haven't even BEGUN the meltdown this year and next...so don't get so cocky.

    If you think you're on a tail end of this, you're delusional."

    Hey NOZ, you seem to be up to date on whats going on in the DC area. Let me ask you:

    What is inventory doing in the DC area?

    Whats the burnoff rate of Alt A loans in the DC area?

    I assume you saw that report the other day re: the bank owned inventory broken down by county. How long do you think it will take to work that off?

    Do you think the VA settlement with countrywide will do much to the area?

    What about BRAC - helpful or hurtful?

    How many jobs do you think TARP administration will add to the area?

    I mean, clearly you are up on the DC market as you are so willing to opine as we see above. I assume these opinions "we havent even BEGUN the meltdown" and such are based on your thorough research of the issues we face here in DC - right?

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  14. "every little quote you posted above inside " " of Neils talks about D.C. and THEN YOU attribute it to Arlington."

    Neil was talking about CORE DC, Arlington, Alexandria & DC proper.

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  15. ANON:

    I don't know Neil nor do I frequent his site.

    But I do know that if you think DC prices have stopped falling, you truly are delusional.

    You don't have to live in Los Angeles to know that home prices in LA have dropped over 35% and have no end in site do you? Nor in San Diego, nor in Las Vegas.

    Maybe you live in a bubble but the rest of us don't.

    And I also don't have the obvious God complex to think that "We're Different."....

    Yeah....OK

    Enjoy your 2009 and continued price drops.

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  16. Oh let me state a few facts about DC pricing:

    From January to December 2008:

    * Aggregate average prices fell 19.7%.
    * Condo prices fell 16.77%.
    * Home prices fell 22.01%.

    * The condo market continued to drop: unit sales and dollar volume fell 14.29% and 25.38% YoY, respectively. Home sales were no better: unit sales down 8.47%, dollar volume down 29.24%.

    (OOOOOH...that can't be good).

    * YoY, average prices for condos fell 12.94% while those for homes declined 22.7%.

    (Ouch!)

    * Based on December's sales volume, there is a 7.7 month inventory of condos listed and 8.44 month's supply for homes. The good news is this is a 33.28% decrease for condos and a 25.54% decrease for homes from November, although the drop could simply reflect that sellers took/kept their homes off the market during the holidays. Compared to December 2007, the number of condos listed is up 10.34%, while home listings grew 24.74%.

    (Man that sucks for you huh?)

    Oh well...we're all in it together ANON.

    Let me know what magic bullet you have that makes your place so special and so immune to the continued decline of available money, job losses, and so on...all that trivial stuff that doesn't happen in DC.

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  17. what happnes to DC RE prices after the taxpayer revolt and all FedGov employees take a 20% pay cut?

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  18. Noz - you fool, you fell for the same trap that Neil did in assuming that all of the DC metro area was THE SAME.

    DC Metro consists of dozens of counties spread across 3 different states (MD, DC & VA). Turns out, some of them are getting hit WAY harder than others. For example:

    Prince William county median prices 2008

    Dec -46.7
    Nov -43.3
    Oct -45.6
    Sep -43.1
    Aug -43.3
    Jul -39.6
    Jun -38.1
    May -33.0
    Apr -29.7
    Mar -29.7
    Feb -27.4
    Jan -25.5

    2008 average is probably -33%. Prices are at 2001 levels. Pretty bad huh. But what about DC proper 25 miles away as the crow flies?

    Dec -12.5
    Nov -2.8
    Oct +0.4
    Sep +3.9
    Aug -0.0
    Jul -2.1
    Jun +2.4
    May +5.0
    Apr +4.5
    Mar -8.1
    Feb +6.4
    Jan +11.2

    For the year, DC proper is likely to be +0.5%. Do you know why? BECAUSE ITS DIFFERENT HERE!

    For the record, I think DC proper will post its biggest decline ever in 2009 7-10% putting it back near 2005 levels, or up only +120% over year 2000 levels.

    So dont give me some BS response about how I think prices "wont go down". Ive been watching these markets for years, and I feel 90% certain next year will be down for DC proper.

    The thing is, and what we were trying to point out to west coast fools like Neil is that some areas are DIFFERENT, and wont do nearly as bad as the others.

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  19. By the way NOZ, I love the fact that you got worked up enough to do some simple research on DC in an attempt to show I am wrong. This is the same path Neil went down years ago, citing inaccurate data while not understanding the vagaries of this area.

    Not being clear on what constitutes DC vs the DC MSA, not understanding the difference between Alexandria City, and Alexandria, Fairfax Co., not understanding the difference between the NVAR area, and say Falls Church City. The difference in price declines by areas is enormous.

    Its as if I came out to CA and tried to debate you on why Manhattan Beach was doomed based on a report I saw about the Antelope Valley. I realize I would be out of my league and give up. Not like I really care since I dont want to buy there anyway.

    Still, its encouraging you gave an attempt (albeit very feeble) to prove me wrong. Its been very lonely here since Neil was thoroughly humiliated and gave up. I hope you will stick around so you and I can debate the finer points about inventory, BRAC, all the things that affect THIS AREA...

    Theres something strange about you CA guys - you cant stand that some area thousands of miles away from you, an area you arent interested in, may not be doing so bad. Its so easy to bait you guys into debates where you are thoroughly outmatched when it come to what is affecting prices here in DC and the DC MSA. Maybe its something in the water...

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  20. ANON:

    We have areas in LA that have seen little to no depreciation here either.

    So get off your high horse thinking we don't see the same things here. What...we don't have expensive neighborhoods here either with old money and rich folk? Where exactly do you think you live? Fairytale land?

    You are NOT different there at all. You are governed by the same problems everyone else is being governed by. There are pockets of areas that are affected more and others that are affected less.

    But to think you are immune and different is not only stupid but arrogant as well.

    Good luck if you think you're only going to get a 10% hit max. You're dreaming...and delusional like many idiots here in LA who are still thinking their expensive areas and homes won't lose value.

    If you want to make the stupid argument that Bel Air and places like that aren't losing value, lol...all I can say is good luck. Even THOSE places have lost value...and will continue to do so.

    And to set the record straight, I couldn't care less if some other place is doing better or worse than CA. I'm neither a CA native NOR to I like CA. I live here out of necessity and personal reasons...nothing more.

    So stop living in some pompous bubble thinking that YOU and no one else can understand something that is quite evident.

    I'll bet you were one of those shills when back in 2006 were screaming your ass off about how home prices can't go down.

    Really, people like you were a dime a dozen a couple of years back...kicking, screaming, whining about people saying home prices wouldn't go down much...this and that. You may still find a few on the Seattle housing blogs because they got a bit of a late start...especially the self-righteous and untouchable King's County shills.

    Much the same in Glendale, Burbank, Pasadena areas where people here are still calling home price reductions any more than 15% a pipe-dream.

    I came here to just call you out....because I'm tired of people like you being so full of shit and self-righteous. Regardless of where you are or where I am. You're becoming a dinasour in this housing market and fast.

    Let us all know why some areas are DIFFERENT. I'd like to hear what makes YOUR areas that aren't "losing" value as much different from OUR areas that aren't "losing" value as much either.

    Please....enlighten us all.

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  21. "Let us all know why some areas are DIFFERENT. I'd like to hear what makes YOUR areas that aren't "losing" value as much different from OUR areas that aren't "losing" value as much either.

    Please....enlighten us all."

    Because NOZ, unlike your areas out in LA, the areas I am talking about here were subject to not only the bubble (hence prices are falling), but substantial gentrification.

    This is not LA style gentrification where some house gets an addition and upgraded countertops either. This was the real thing.

    DC Proper was the murder capital in the US in 1991 as the crack and heroin epidemics roiled the city.

    Nothing really started to CHANGE until 1998 when Marion "Crack Addict" Barry was finally bounced and replaced with an accountant dedicated to reducing crime and bringing some life back into the city.

    For the first time since 1950, DC actually gains population - reversing a 50+ year trend of too many houses, not enough people. The educated gays and dinks move in while the gangbangers move out. What do you think this does for property values?

    Many of the former low income apartments (i.e. Barry Farms) are gone, replaced with townhomes, recreation centers, etc. What do you think that does for property values?

    In Del Ray, there was not a single business of any consequence on Mt Vernon ave in 1996. Today, there is an upscale butcher, a cheese monger, top 100 washingtonian restaurants, wholistic healers, etc. etc. What do you think this does to property values?

    Im sure you remember the open air drug & prostitution market in Parker Gray (im sure you do). Remember how rte 1 was lined with liquor stores that used to average 600 police calls per year. The drugs and prostitution are gone, replaced by townhouses, shops, boutiques, etc. What do you think this does to property values?

    Remember the running gang battles seen in the 4th ward near adams morgan? (you do dont you)? Those are long gone - people can now occupy the grand old mansions nearby that used to get hit by nearby gun fire. What do you think this does to property values?

    In my ward, police stats indicate we used to have at least 50 shootings a year. Shootings diminished rapidly 1996-2000. Since 2000, we now have less than 10 a year. What do you think this does to property values?

    There used to be about 25 abandoned residences within 3-4 blocks of me. Today there are only 3 left. What do you think this does to property values?

    There used to be 3 homeless shelters within one mile of my house. Today, all are gone. What do you think this does to property values?

    When I first moved here, there were ZERO upscale businesses. Most of what we had was check cashing stores and barbershops to get your cornrows done. Today, about 90% of these are gone, replaced with upscale shops & restaurants. Tell me, what does this do to property values?

    As late as 2003, a good friend of mine who hadnt stepped foot in the city since 1994 said he would never consider my hood for fear he would "suffer multiple stab wounds". Now, he is considering it because his wife thinks it is "cute". What does this do to property values?

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  22. See NOZ thats the thing. Unlinke areas of LA (& frankly many places), there were some real and very dramatic changes to DC proper. Even today, DC proper is not wealthy - the suburbs like Loudoun County are far wealthier yet they have all fallen 20% or more.

    We had gains in the city due to the bubble and gentrification. THe bubble gains are gone, the gentrification gains are still here. Turns out, people are willing to pay a heck of a lot more for simple things like safety and security - things that werent seen in the city since the 1968 riots. That is just one of the things that makes it DIFFERENT HERE.

    Neil never could grasp how more than one force could be prevailing upon DC proper values. Lets see if you can.

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  23. "Anon said...

    THe bubble gains are gone, the gentrification gains are still here."

    I think another reason why prices are going up is because of the foreclosures.

    Take petworth, or U street for example. Hundreds of black families who lived in those cool old houses for centuries - they never wanted to sell but were more than willing to take out HELOCs they couldnt afford.

    Now those HELOCs are coming due, and these people are forced to sell. The houses are now available for the first time in a generation. Typically, the buyers are young, educated professional types with plenty of cash. Eager to pay 400K for a place that (if renovated) would be worth double that.

    So I see this meltdown as speeding up the gentrification process of the last decade or so. This may be the best thing that ever happened to the city.

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  24. 150% - 200% appreciation in DC prices in few years is nothing but a bubble. Prices are still high.. way high! There's only one way.... Down.. Way down! If things in the economy and the banking system keep going bad at the rate they are going..... Kiss the whole economy goodbye ....NOT JUST DC!

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  25. ANON...I'm hoping the correct ANON knows who I am replying to.

    I guess time will tell for you and me and the rest of us. So far, the trend has been against you. And there is no indication whatsoever that it is going to turn anytime soon. Downward momentum is strong, credit is going to get tighter, people are losing more jobs, on and on and on.

    I'm going to ask you a question. And this question goes out to everyone...but I'll specifically ask it for the DC proper area you claim will not drop more than 7-15% (because I already know the answer to my areas in LA).

    Are prices for homes in line with salaries NOW? Will they be in line with salaries after a 7-15% drop in home prices?

    What is the average salary in DC proper? And what's the ratio of home prices to salaries?

    With these numbers in mind, what do you think the job market will be in DC proper in the next year or so?

    LA and the surround areas are not going to become more expensive just because they tear down "Barry Farms" and put up town homes. Who's going to buy them when they need more than a hole and heartbeat to get a loan now?

    Those days are OVER.

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  26. "Noz said.

    Are prices for homes in line with salaries NOW? Will they be in line with salaries after a 7-15% drop in home prices?

    What is the average salary in DC proper? And what's the ratio of home prices to salaries?"

    Theve never been in line with salaries. In some areas of the city, weve had price to income of 12 before the bubble! We have a huge undercurrent of perpetually unemployed in da hood (east of the river especially). These people rent, and they always have, and probably always will. Still, they count against the salary metrics.

    "With these numbers in mind, what do you think the job market will be in DC proper in the next year or so?"

    Very similar to what happened during the great depression. The US government, in an effort to stimulate the economy, puts out tons and tons of new programs, all of which need to be administered. During the 1930s, I think about 100,000 jobs were added as "New Dealers" invaded in droves. I dont think it will be this many this time around. Latest I heard, DC area is adding 23,000 jobs a year, not losing them as the rest of the country.

    So what else would you like to know Noz. Thing is, unlike the earlier generation of perma bulls that were full of hot air, there are some of us who actually have a decent idea what we are talking about.

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  27. You didn't answer my question....you didn't give any numbers...I'm not going to believe you simply because said so.

    I've already looked up figures for 2005-2007 numbers for DC for income to mortgage ratios...and it's not 12 times...even during the bubble.

    So give us some numbers regarding these stats you claim and let's go from there.

    So you heard DC is adding jobs...in what sectors? How much income? How stable?

    You see, just like others, you really don't know what you are talking about.

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  28. Noz - see on page 4 where DC is gaining jobs while LA is hemmoraging them away.

    See page 5 where DC is losing low paying jobs like construction, but gaining high paying jobs like "professional & business services"

    http://www.cra-gmu.org/forecastreports/08forecasts/WashingtonEconomy-HousingMarketDAARDec17.pdf

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  29. Noz - heres your income info. Med HH income is 46K. However, note that the homeownership rate is only 40% in DC proper. Thus, by definition the median reflects renters not homeowners who have long ago been priced out.

    http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/11000.html

    This fact is terribly improtant in urban areas where you have extreme stratification of incomes (i.e. a high percentage of renters and the underclass).

    Take Zip code 20007 for instance. This shows median income a mere 70K, yet belies the fact that 14.6% of the population (usually owners) makes over 200K. Thus, houses here are geared toward the 200K crowd despite the 70K median income stat.

    http://zipskinny.com/index.php?zip=20007

    By contrast heres a middle class DC suburb where Median income is actually a relevant statistic and most everyone can afford a home.

    http://zipskinny.com/index.php?zip=20147

    Note here however, the median income is 88K. On its face, much higher than the 70K found in the urban area. However, here a mere 5.5% of the population makes over 200K. Meaning its not only less wealthy, but also geared toward high rates of homeownership.

    Finally, note too that the DC population has gone up by over 9,000 in the period from 200-2006

    http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/11000.html

    In the suburbs, you can account for increased population by building more houses. In DC, this isnt really applicable as most of the area is built up since the 1850's and the only choice is vertical construction (condos, a poor substittue good). Thus, when you have increased demand, and limited supply (via land constraint, prices rise).


    Incidentally, Neil, I mean Noz - why so desparate to prove me wrong? Why go through the trouble of looking up stats yourself on an area thousands of miles away from you. Seriously you west coast types are nuts. Are you sure you arent neil.

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  30. LOL...I'm afraid I'm not Neil...but nice try.

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  31. Ummm..I could ask you the same question regarding going through lengths to prove people wrong.

    You're the only one trying to buck the national trend...I don't know why. Denial? Hope?

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  32. "Ummm..I could ask you the same question regarding going through lengths to prove people wrong."

    Because I enjoy it, and occasionally learn a thing or two.

    I wasnt like this years ago. Back in 2005-2006, I was like you - bearish as hell spouting off platitutes & cliches like "no place is immune" and "its only the 3rd inning of this thing".

    A bullish anon pointed out to me some discrepancies in the data, explaining why DC might be not so hard hit. Angry - I launched into a campaign to prove him wrong. However, the more I looked at the data, the more I came around to his way of thinking.

    As time went on. I adopted some of his positions - they made sense, and were pretty accurate. I began posting the findings here in hopes someone would see something I didnt. Typical exchange would go like this.

    Me - why is inventory declining YOY?

    Idiot bear - its a blip, no place is immune.

    Me - um yeah, ok. Say what about this report, fewer junk loans per zip in the urban areas.

    Idiot bear - oh this is just beginning!

    You see the pattern here. The more I learned, the more I realized most of the bearish posters are clueless paper tigers. Every once in a while, I would get a substanitive response.

    knowledgeable bear - inventory may be declining because of X. If so, we should see Y...

    Thats why I come back here - in hopes someone else watches the data as close as I do, and can see something I dont.

    Unfortunately, you are one of the former, not the latter. In cases like you, I like to continuously bait you knowing full well you will come back again and again.

    Its obvious you know nothing about the vagaries of this area - its obvious you dont care anything about it - yet you go on and on when its clear, you dont know the first thing about the local data and potential issues affecting this area. That, I find hilarious.




    I still post them here in hopes someone can see something I dont.

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  33. Noz - maybe I am wrong about you. Lets give you another shot.

    The reason I think DC will go down next year, is because even though its absorbtion ratio is a bit eleveated, prices are increasing. I personally think this is a discrepancy due to what is selling.

    For example, looking at zips 20020 and 20023, you see a decent backlog of cheap stuff mostly foreclosures that isnt selling.

    My assumption is that bulk investors - the ones who are picking these things up in droves, are NOT buying here because its in SE - scary as hell gangland.

    Now, it looks like these are finally starting to move, hence the median drop of -12.5 YOY.

    If so, I think we will see a good bit of median price drops in the low teens next year.

    At that point, east of the river inventory should be in line with the rest of the city, and in line with Arlington & Alexandria. Over there, inventory is declining YOY, and it looks like there is no changing that now. I expect that once these gangland properties east of the river move, the rest of the city will perform alot like Arlington & Alexandria.

    So thats the reason for my prediction NOZ. What about you? Do you have anything substanitive to add to the conversation?

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  34. Actually Noz - I just looked again. 22020 looks awful, but 22024 looks fine (inventory down YOY absorbtion rate 5-6 months)

    However, look at 20019

    http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/route.cfm

    355 units for sale, mostly located off goodluck road? Thats 1/10th of the city's inventory backlog, and 50% higher than last year. Right now that zip is posting -5% median price drops. Any chance they get out of this with less than -25% off in that zip Noz?

    Noz?????

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  35. ANON:

    You are right...no place is immune. No place. Whether you want to accept that or not is your personal call and belief.

    But you can't defeat fundamentals. And that's where we are heading after years of defying them.

    Vancouver had a group of people living there....just like you....who were saying exactly what you were saying...let's see...what were some of the things they said?

    "we're different"
    "everyone wants to live here"
    "our market is better than everyone elses"
    "we have more jobs here"
    "the Olympics is coming here"
    "we didn't fall victim to the absurd loans like people in the US"


    On and on and on. Back in 05 when we first visited...that market was crazy hot. One bedroom places starting at $500K downtown for a 600sq ft place. And then it got EVEN MORE expensive.

    "We're wealthier here...people are willing to pay for it."

    Hmmm...yeah. Since 05...I was calling them crazy and got into it with multitudes of people from BC who were calling me the same thing as you are...someeone from LA who doesn't understand.

    OK...so...fast forward October 08. The shit started to hit the fan. People were pulling out of unfinished condo projects...losing $30K, 50K...whatever.

    People stopped buying...why? Because on an average salary of $40K, it's sorta tough to buy a $750K condo. Real tough.

    But wait...where are the wealthy folk to save the day? What about all the renters who saved the day before a couple of years ago? What about the people room-mating and families bunching together (a classic thing in BC)? The renter suckers...what happened? What about all the rich Chinese and Asian investors and dumb American foreigners buying up stuff?

    It could never end...could it?

    Say it ain't so. Now the same condos are selling for $350K or less. 40-50% off the peak and within a span of about 4 months. Not an end in sight.

    So what's my point in all this?

    Well..BC was a far more robust market than here...supposedly. Loan rules were different, people's mentalities were different, different country. But what happened? Same thing that happened here.

    People hit the ceiling of lack of common sense and affordability.

    Look at the great depression's data on the stock market...and housing too. We had ups and downs through the whole period until 1952....where it truly bottomed from 1929. I bet during those up blips the bears were screaming their asses off saying SEE...I told you we were out of it.

    Again, time will tell. But there is no reason that DC is going to be immune from any other region of the country. No reason at all. Unless you think DC is living in bubble...no pun intended.

    The fundamentals is what you need to look at...not micro data. Micro data also showed...until a few months ago...that average median prices in LA were going up. Well....we now know what nonsense that was....even in one of the richest and wealthiest areas of the US and perhaps the most vibrant job market in the country.

    Interesting.

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  36. Platitudes platitudes...

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  37. "east of the river inventory should be in line with the rest of the city"

    East of the river is still "east of the river". As we saw earlier this week, crossing the river into the heart of the "Greater Washington Area" is a pain in the ass. That is why "west of the river" or "DC proper" as it is commonly referred to, will always be the "core area".

    East of the river is nice in terms of architecture and value. But for convenience and quality of life, it just isn't the same as DC proper.

    Oh, and sure, BC is EXACTLY the sam as DC in every respect! HAHA! That's a good one.

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  38. tool belter:

    Are you an idiot or just like acting like one?

    Why is then that people ALL OVER THE WORLD are having housing issues? Why is it that the SAME THING is happening everywhere because fundamentals are out of whack?

    I know...I know...I'm asking too much of you to think but when I say BC is the same, it's the same in that respect....you tool.


    Put your brain in gear before putting your fingers in motion.

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  39. I dont know much about DC proper, but I can tell you that parts of the DC area, especially Severn county will do well.

    Severn county has a ton of wealthy folks here. More than most of you would believe.

    Plus Ive been looking at their fundamentals, and they seem ok. Thus, I think Severn county will be pretty immune to this crisis.

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  40. "Why is then that people ALL OVER THE WORLD are having housing issues? "

    Oh, I see my woeful error now. Case in point: The Indian government recently tore down big swaths of slum developments. (look into it)

    So I guess this means that people who lost their housing in those instances have a lot in common with folks who live Cleveland Park (that is a neighborhood in Washington DC, as I'm sure you know)

    Wow. Thanks for pointing out that the current housing problems faced by people in other countries ALL OVER THE WORLD are shared by us idiots in Washington. After all, DC has the lowest per-capita education level in the USA. (not unlike India!)

    (that is sarcasm in case you're too dense to pick up on it)

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  41. Hey SC Watcher, here are some demographic stats for your precious Severn County: (decidedly UN-wealthy)

    The median income for a household in the CDP was $66,204, and the median income for a family was $68,424. Males had a median income of $42,933 versus $31,751 for females. The per capita income for the CDP was $24,640. About 5.4% of families and 6.5% of the population were below the poverty line, including 10.7% of those under age 18 and 7.1% of those age 65 or over.

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  42. More on Severn County; lots of single moms, which means lots of financial struggles:

    "There were 12,003 households out of which 43.4% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 59.8% were married couples living together, 14.7% had a female householder with no husband present, and 20.8% were non-families. 15.3% of all households were made up of individuals and 2.5% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.91 and the average family size was 3.24."

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  43. Tool:

    That's the dumbest argument I have heard. Compare apples to apples you ignoramus and then come back to us and keep making yourself look like a tool.

    Geez..man...is it really that hard to use your brain?

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  44. "Anon said...

    Hey SC Watcher, here are some demographic stats for your precious Severn County"

    Link please - otherwise I dont believe you. I really think it is pretty immune.

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  45. By the way I am talking about Severn COUNTY here.

    I really think you and Noz are wrong on this. I think it will be pretty immune.

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  46. "Link please - otherwise I dont believe you. I really think it is pretty immune."

    It's called "Google". Google it.

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  47. "Compare apples to apples you ignoramus and then "

    You mean like comparing Vancouver, BC with Washington DC?

    You really think that is an "apples to apples" comparison?

    You're a dolt, not a tool. My mistake.

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  48. Yeah...people in Vancouver have three legs and 4 eyes. And last I heard they don't use money...everything is free.

    Thinking is obviously your weak point. Shit for brains.

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  49. So the housing heads are back in full force. Must be the next bubble brewing: the worshiping of Obama, and the hopey changey mentality that goes with it. He's going to save the day and DC. LOL. Sounds like Bubble Meter will once again be as fun as it was back in 2005-2007.

    Listen peeps, Obama is no FDR. He's not proposing enough infrastructure building or other projects to save DC (and he has to deal with Congress, including those pesky Democrats who are not willing to give him a blank check just because of party affiliation). Essentially what he's proposing is an even bigger extension of TARP, free money to existing financial institutions, and we all know just how well that's worked so far.

    He is currently paying lip service to green projects, it is true (possibly to appease his left following who are on the verge of mutiny). But is that going to matter for housing? Are his initiatives going to create government jobs that will allow DC to prosper to the extent the housing heads are expecting? Of course SOME jobs will be created, but it's unlikely that they will be enough to save your precious DC "proper." What you all need to get through your heads is that Obama is a friend of big business rather than "the people." His priority will be to subsidize his friends in the financial sector and privatize the hell out of currently public institutions and agencies. Just look at his cabinet appointments.

    If you're expecting the next New Deal, you're going to be sorely disappointed. Most of the jobs that are created at some point IN THE NOT SO SHORT-TERM FUTURE will most likely be in the private sector. And we all know how sh*tty the private sector pays most of its workers. Are those workers going to be able to afford to buy homes in DC, thus saving the housing market in "DC proper"? Apparently you housing heads think so.

    Either you peeps are RE agents, or are DC homeowners worried about the value of your houses, or you've been listening too much to the desperate RE agents that called you in the middle of dinner to cash in on hopes for change with the new administration. Knowing some RE agents myself, I can already picture the type of conversation you people have had with those oh-so-ethical sales people. Har!

    -SSH Anon

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  50. "Are those workers going to be able to afford to buy homes in DC, thus saving the housing market in "DC proper"? Apparently you housing heads think so."

    Has less to do with housing PRICES and more to do with location. Watch; the economy is shrinking and will continue to do so. LOCATION is everything, just as it always was, and always will be.

    When the economy in "DC Proper" shrinks, that is one thing. But when the 'economy' of Manassass shrinks, that is another thing entirely. (decimation of that region, perhaps?)

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  51. "Most of the jobs that are created at some point IN THE NOT SO SHORT-TERM FUTURE will most likely be in the private sector. And we all know how sh*tty the private sector pays most of its workers."

    That is exactly what I am thinking but I think your reasoning is backward. Public sector doesnt pay squat - you max out at 100K.

    The real money is to be made in govt contracting. Take Deloitte & Touche for example. A friend of mine, just got a RFP for part of the TARP. His price is 38 million. His pro forma assumes they will hire 100 analysts at an average wage of 140K a year.

    This is a tiny deal, just 1/10th of 1% of the Tarp - yet it will add 100 jobs to the area. They & all the other beltway bandits are salivating at the prospect of getting a hold of that $$$!

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  52. ANON:

    $140K in this day and age is NOT that much...is it?

    When prices of decent homes are still in the upper $500-600K range or even more, we're still looking at large monthly payments if the downpayment is small.

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