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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The Bubble Meter Philosophy
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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When will inflation-adjusted DC-area housing prices return to pre-bubble levels?
Are housing prices about to experience a double-dip?
How should the U.S. government balance the budget? (Check all that apply.)
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What sparked the housing bubble?
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Was subprime lending a cause or an effect of the housing bubble?
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Bubble Meter Archive
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2009
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April
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- Home vacancies up during first quarter
- Mortgage cram-downs unlikely to be part of homeown...
- U.S. economy still shrinking rapidly
- Case Shiller Price Index February 2009
- The housing bubble won't be coming back
- NY Times: For Housing Crisis, the End Probably Isn...
- Who is to blame, bankers or economists?
- Housing bubble could have ended in 2003
- Interesting poll results
- Why bankers assumed U.S. housing prices couldn't fall
- Fed Presidents: Maybe Fed should pop bubbles
- Bernanke: Long-lasting damage to home prices
- Foreclosure filings up substantially
- Housing starts down during March
- Recession over? Not!
- Financial Bloggers Gain Recognition Amid Turmoil
- Why foreclosure mitigation has been failing
- U.S. apartment rents are falling
- U.S. currency is now backed by risky assets
- Too many Anonymouses
- WSJ article on bubbles
- Meredith Whitney: Home prices to fall another 30%
- Metro area home price declines since peak
- Don't trust the Realtors' affordability index
- WSJ: Home prices "still no bargain"
- Obama to halt foreclosures
- House prices still plunging in January
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April
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It would be interesting to overlay this graph with a graph showing increases since 2001 or whenever this bullshit started.
ReplyDeleteThe tech bubble occurred in Spring 2000. A year later Bush was in power and pressuring Greenspan to lower rates. I would say it started in 2001.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete"The tech bubble occurred in Spring 2000. A year later Bush was in power and pressuring Greenspan to lower rates. I would say it started in 2001."
I think you mean the tech bust. It's known as the late 1990's tech bubble for a reason.
If you take away VA, prices have actually gone UP since the bubble. Look at Bethesda or Potomac. Its nuts!
ReplyDeleteYes, I think it is the tech bust. The tech bubble burst in early 2000. Montgomery County is immune to economics since it is of the liberal mindset with a lot of gated communities. Well-to-do white families want to move there to escape the Fairfax and Prince William counties.
ReplyDeleteStarted in 1997. The "wealth effect" of the tech bubble run up had people feeling rich and singing the 'We're movin' on up" song
ReplyDeleteAnonymous 4/5@3:38 said:
ReplyDelete"... Montgomery County is immune to economics since it is of the liberal mindset with a lot of gated communities."
I'm curious, what is the relation between the "Liberal Mindset" and economics?
What is this, the great riddle? Ok, I’ll bite. Is it that they are liberal, and don’t want to be near the “others”, or is it that they are liberal and do want to be with their own kind. I am perplexed?
I think he might have meant that they are liberal with their money, so they just spent way too much for their home? That's the only thing that would make sense in that comment.
ReplyDelete"... Montgomery County is immune to economics since it is of the liberal mindset with a lot of gated communities."
ReplyDeleteI'm curious, what is the relation between the "Liberal Mindset" and economics?
The OP's point was that "liberal communities" tend to be more walkable, have better services, and are just in general more desirable.
That's why house prices in areas of DC where gunfire still breaks out sporadically are rock-solid, and flag-waving Red State areas have fallen through the floor.
"That's why house prices in areas of DC where gunfire still breaks out sporadically are rock-solid, and flag-waving Red State areas have fallen through the floor."
ReplyDeleteLMAO
You think DC has "rock-solid, and flag-waving red state areas?"
Have you ever been to DC?
Let me give you a hint, DC in general is solid democrat, the poorer the neighborhood the more likely to vote democrat.
"You think DC has "rock-solid, and flag-waving red state areas?"
ReplyDeleteI'm not the original commenter to whom you are replying, but I can see that you mis-read the original comment.
His/her intent was NOT to suggest that "DC has red state areas". Quite the opposite.
Suburbia is dying - THANK GOD I BOUGHT IN THE IMMUNOZONE!!!
ReplyDelete"The financial meltdown has produced a vast patchwork of foreclosed and abandoned single-family homes across America, accelerating the decades-long migration of our nation's poor from cities to the suburban fringe.
The trend will continue. By 2025, predicts planning expert Arthur C. Nelson, America will face a market surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (a sixth of an acre or more), attracting millions of low-income residents deeper into suburbia where decay and social and geographic isolation will pose challenges few see coming.
Over the past two decades, the gospel of urbanism has spread though the American mainstream. But it is the young, the affluent, the professional class and empty-nesters who are reclaiming the urban living experience -- dense, walkable, diverse, mixed-use neighborhoods in and around city centers -- while the poor disperse outward in search of cheap rent.
local officials across the country are reporting an increase in violent crime, gang activity, drug use and other social breakdowns within suburban neighborhoods. In places like New York City, Atlanta and Chicago, urban crime rates are dropping while rising on the outskirts of town"
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09095/960370-109.stm
Hmm - high prices near the city - low prices at the edges - this may make the Immunozones even MORE desirable!!!!
ReplyDelete"Experts describe as a new "outer edge" of poverty in remote suburbs hit hard by foreclosures. Fueled by "subprime" mortgages that made new homes suddenly affordable for those who otherwise might not have qualified, outlying communities mushroomed during the middle of this decade.
In the outer-edge suburbs, there are no nonprofits. Charitable support is much weaker. We're likely to see outer-edge ghettos with higher home-vacancy rates for quite some time," said John K. McIlwain, senior fellow for housing at the Urban Land Institute in Washington.
"They live in what can be described as a social wilderness. This is a social economy that depends on automobiles, gasoline and jobs. When those things start to disappear, they are stuck."
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-asecforeburb19031909mar19,0,7928840.story
When are you going to buy guys? This discussion is going nowhere!!
ReplyDeleteI think we just have to give it some time but this could eventually open some doors for those who have never purchased a home before. Even more so than it is now. The economy is throwing up and it will be interesting to see where it will all be once it stops.
ReplyDeleteThis economy will keep throwing up for a loooong time. The hangover is huuuuge.
ReplyDelete"The trend will continue. By 2025, predicts planning expert Arthur C. Nelson, America will face a market surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (a sixth of an acre or more), attracting millions of low-income residents deeper into suburbia where decay and social and geographic isolation will pose challenges few see coming."
ReplyDeleteHAHAHA!!! Is this for a new post apocalyptic mad max novel??? Complete nonsense.
HAHAHA!!! Is this for a new post apocalyptic mad max novel??? Complete nonsense.
ReplyDeleteIn the 1940s no one ever thought the cities would lose population - thats where all the jobs were - not on the farms. Never did they imagine that in 40 years the cities would be so infested with crime that movie titles like "Escape from New York"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_from_new_york
Obviously, it never got that bad in NYC but it got pretty close - much worse than they thought in 1940...
Now the reverse will happen. The suburbs will never completely go away, but they are being infested with the poor and some areas converted into multi family tenements - they are in for some serious pain.
The height of the Anti Suburban trend be in 2039 when the movie "Escape from PWC" hits movie theatres - thats when you know its overdone.
"In the 1940s no one ever thought the cities would lose population - thats where all the jobs were - not on the farms"
ReplyDeleteMost people didn't own automobiles, the Interstate Highway System did not exist, and suburban tract housing was purely conceptual at that time.
Now the auto industry is on its deathbed, the road infrastructure is widely acknowledge to be decrepit, and suburban home values have plummeted.
Can anyone read those tea leaves?
"Now the auto industry is on its deathbed, the road infrastructure is widely acknowledge to be decrepit, and suburban home values have plummeted."
ReplyDeleteSo let me get this straight. Places like bethesda and potomac are going to become cracktowns because ford is going out of business? Yeah I can "read those tea leaves." lol
"Places like bethesda and potomac are going to become cracktowns because ford is going out of business?"
ReplyDeleteThat was never stated nor implied.
Hey look, the economy and personal automobile usage are interrelated, after all!
ReplyDeleteBad economy holds highway deaths to 1960s levels
April 6, 2009 - 4:58pm
By KEN THOMAS
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. highway deaths in 2008 fell to their lowest level in nearly 50 years, the latest government figures show, as the recession and $4 per gallon gas meant people drove less to save more.
Safety experts said record-high seat-belt use, tighter enforcement of drunken driving laws and the work of advocacy groups that encourage safer driving habits contributed to the reduction in deaths.
Preliminary figures released by the government Monday show that 37,313 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes last year. That's 9.1 percent lower than the year before, when 41,059 died, and the fewest since 1961, when there were 36,285 deaths.
A different measure, also offering good news, was the fatality rate, the number of deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. It was 1.28 in 2008, the lowest on record. A year earlier it was 1.36.
"The silver lining in a bad economy is that people drive less, and so the number of deaths go down," said Adrian Lund, president of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. "Not only do they drive less but the kinds of driving they do tend to be less risky _ there's less discretionary driving."
Fatalities fell by more than 14 percent in New England, and by 10 percent or more in many states along the Atlantic seaboard, parts of the Upper Midwest and the West Coast, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
"Americans should really be pleased that everyone has stepped up here in order to make driving safer and that people are paying attention to that," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said.
In the past, tough economic times have brought similar declines in roadway deaths. Fatalities fell more than 16 percent from 1973 to 1974 as the nation dealt with the oil crisis and inflation. Highway deaths dropped nearly 11 percent from 1981 to 1982 as President Ronald Reagan battled a recession.
The government said vehicle miles traveled in 2008 fell by about 3.6 percent, to 2.92 trillion miles, indicating many people adjusted their driving habits as gas prices fluctuated and the economy tumbled. The number of miles driven by motorists had risen steadily over the past three decades.
The figures are preliminary; final numbers and state-by-state totals are expected later in the year.
Several states have pushed tougher seat belt laws that allow law enforcement officers to stop motorists whose sole offense was failing to buckle up. In 27 states and the District of Columbia, there are such enforcement laws. The remaining states have laws that allow tickets for seat belt violations only if motorists are stopped for other offenses. New Hampshire has no seat belt law for adults.
Seat belt use in 2008 climbed to 83 percent, a record. Fourteen states and the nation's capital had rates of 90 percent or better. Michigan had the highest seat belt use rate with 97.2 percent, followed by Hawaii with 97 percent and Washington state at 96.5 percent. Massachusetts had the lowest rate, 66.8 percent, while it was under 70 percent in New Hampshire and Wyoming.
"People finally understand that seat belts save their lives and their children's lives," said former NHTSA administrator Nicole Nason.
Dave McCurdy, president and chief executive of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, said the industry has worked to improve safety by introducing numerous features such as anti-rollover electronic stability control, air bag systems and crash avoidance technologies.
But many safety groups said it was unclear if the fatality numbers will continue dropping once the economy improves. If the projections hold, 2008 would be the first year since 1992 when traffic fatalities dipped below 40,000. Even with the declines, more than 100 people die on U.S. roads everyday.
"We still have too many people who are dying in car crashes," said Jacqueline Gillan, vice president for Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety.
___
On the Net:
NHTSA: http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/
Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety: http://www.saferoads.org/
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety: http://www.iihs.org/
(Copyright 2009 The Associated Press
"37,313 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes last year."
ReplyDeleteThat's carnage. I wonder how many people were mangled but survived? Has to be in the six figures.
""Places like bethesda and potomac are going to become cracktowns because ford is going out of business?"
ReplyDeleteThat was never stated nor implied."
No, then what were you implying. Cause the conversation was that only downtown areas will survive and anything outside of downtown would be like a mad max movie
"Cause the conversation was that only downtown areas will survive and anything outside of downtown would be like a mad max movie"
ReplyDeleteThe other anon is a bit too bearish regarding the fate of the burbs. People like living there and that isnt going to change soon. Thus, places that are doing OK now (Arl, Alex, Bethesda, Potomac, etc). Will be fine.
Many others even those hard hit will recover.
However, dont underestimate the demographic shift taking place - there are indeed some places perhaps in areas like PWC, Culpepper, Charles county, etc. they are doomed.
"No, then what were you implying."
ReplyDeleteDo you really think that Bethesda is comperable to Manassass VA or Boyds, MD?
Bethesda is not a typical suburb, neither is Potomac. Bethesda has density, public transit, walkable amenities, etc. Do you require more explanation?
Tenements? In Fairfax VA?! Impossible!
ReplyDeleteFairfax tenement restores alarms, extinguishers
April 7, 2009 - 8:55am
William C. Flook
Examiner Staff Writer
The squalid Vista Gardens apartment complex has corrected "over 80 percent" of the more than 700 fire code violations issued in a Fairfax County crackdown last month, including those for the widespread lack of fire alarms, a fire department spokesman said Monday.
The apartments, which sit in the Culmore community near Falls Church off Leesburg Pike, were the subject of an intense investigation by building code, health and fire officials after pressure from the community brought elected leaders into action.
The investigation came shortly after a community meeting - sponsored by the nearby St. Anthony of Padua Parish and Virginians Organized for Interfaith Community Engagement - brought out tenants to testify publicly about the conditions and the property managers' apparent indifference to them.
In addition to the missing alarms, the inspectors found living spaces infested with rats, bedbugs and other parasites, and areas with missing or broken fire extinguishers, exposed wires, broken windows, gas leaks, peeling paint and other problems.
To live there, Vista Gardens' largely immigrant tenants pay upward of $1,200 a month.
"There is still a very long way to go," said Fairfax County Supervisor Penny Gross, who represents the Mason District. Though they were quick to put in fire alarms, Vista's property managers have yet to address many of the other issues, she said.
The violations issued by the Fairfax County Fire and Rescue Department were the most numerous, but did not address the vermin infestation or other health issues.
Last month, some Vista Gardens tenants told The Examiner that their complaints about the conditions had long fallen on deaf ears. But fire department spokesman Lt. Willie Bailey said on Monday the property "is doing an outstanding job handling the violations that we located and repairing them in a timely manner."
Each of the violations cited by fire officials could have carried as much as a $2,500 fine, though Bailey's statements Monday signal that those fines probably won't be enforced.
(Copyright 2009 by The Examiner. All Rights Reserved.)
"Do you really think that Bethesda is comperable to Manassass VA or Boyds, MD?
ReplyDeleteBethesda is not a typical suburb, neither is Potomac. Bethesda has density, public transit, walkable amenities, etc. Do you require more explanation?"
Hey I wasnt comparing anything. Potomac doesnt have a metro, you have to drive to get to one. So I was worried because Ford is going out of business that Potomac would become the mad max thunderdome.
"Potomac doesnt have a metro, you have to drive to get to one"
ReplyDeletePotomac is very, very wealthy compared to 99.5% of the other neighborhoods in the United States. But you already knew that.
Which makes you a sensationalist, hyperbolic asswipe.
"Bethesda is not a typical suburb, neither is Potomac. Bethesda has density, public transit, walkable amenities, etc. Do you require more explanation?"
ReplyDeleteClearly. But what's they point in trying to explain to someone who classifies Bethesda as the exurbs. Or can't understand the difference between Potomac and PWC.
Hell, downtown Bethesda has a walkability score of 98 of 100--higher than Adams-Morgan. And you can ride a freaking bicycle from Potomac to downtown DC in about an hour.
No wonder these jokers can't figure out the area housing market.
" No wonder these jokers can't figure out the area housing market.
ReplyDeleteYou're right.
For some reason, I'm reminded of the following words:
"They have chairs with wheels and here I am using my legs like a sucker!" - H. Simpson.
Don't be too dismissive of the possibility of civil unrest as a result of all this.
ReplyDeleteBarack Obama, Pitchforks, and Tea Parties
April 04, 2009 by Mark Whittington
During a recent meeting between President Barack Obama and the CEOs of the most powerful financial institutions in the country, political hardball was on full display. In fact, it can be safely said that a naked threat Barack Obama, Pitchforks, and Tea Parties.
"Arrayed around a long mahogany table in the White House state dining room last week, the CEOs of the most powerful financial institutions in the world offered several explanations for paying high salaries to their employees — and, by extension, to themselves
"'These are complicated companies,' one CEO said. Offered another: 'We're competing for talent on an international market.'
"But President Barack Obama wasn't in a mood to hear them out. He stopped the conversation and offered a blunt reminder of the public's reaction to such explanations. 'Be careful how you make those statements, gentlemen. The public isn't buying that.'
"'My administration,' the president added, 'is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.'"
The implication was unmistakable. Do as I say or you'll be handed over to the mob.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/20871.html
"Clearly. But what's they point in trying to explain to someone who classifies Bethesda as the exurbs."
ReplyDeleteOk, so what about rockville and gaithersburg? Hell the areas of rockville touching bethesda AND potomac are called "north bethesda"....and the southern parts of gaithersburg are called "north potomac"
Are they going to be mad max when ford goes under?
The funny part about all this, I just moved to this area, and EVERYTHING looks like 800 square foot 1940 pieces of shit to me...No matter what area you think is classier
oh forgot about wheaton....cant you ride a bicycle to downtown just as quick as you could from potomac?
ReplyDelete"Are they going to be mad max when ford goes under?"
ReplyDeleteHomer, you're obviously an emotional drama queen. If you've spent any time on this blog, you'd know that there are common terms: "Core" and "Outer" areas.
"Are they going to be mad max when ford goes under?"
Ford is in the best shape of the "Big Three". You're not up on current events, otherwise you would have picked GM or Chrysler for your drama-queen comments.
"oh forgot about wheaton...." Wheaton sucks. They have a metro stop now, but its where all the DC cab drivers live.
Why don't you drive your Chevy up River Road in Montgomery County and take a look at the special brand of "800 square foot 1940 pieces of shit" they have up there. What I think has nothing to do with it: Potomac is one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in the wealthiest country in the world.
Why don't you go stub your toe so you can come back and write about the life-threatening injury you just sustained?
Guys! Guys! Suburbia is not dead. Potomac is suburbia and doing very well. Rockville is suburbia and doing very well.
ReplyDeleteThe difference, you idiots , is not in suburbia but with how rich you are.
You guys are obviously are the bottom debating for years if you should buy or rent? Keep renting!
"The difference, you idiots , is not in suburbia but with how rich you are. "
ReplyDeleteRich people don't live in Manassass. They live in Potomac, Bethesda and NW DC.
Get it? No, didn't think so. Nice try though. "B" for effort.