Sunday, January 10, 2010

December 2009 employment data

Pundits are making a fuss about the fact that official December job losses increased from November's unbelievable numbers. Monthly job losses still show a longer-term gradual decline. (Source.)

Perhaps looking at ADP's private job loss numbers does a better job of putting the trend in perspective:

The official unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10.0% in December:

The year-over-year percent change in aggregate weekly hours worked shows an upward trend, although it's still below zero:

The year-over-year percent change in initial unemployment claims is below zero and continuing to improve:

So, while the widely-reported official data didn't look so good in December, other data shows the recovery is continuing.

A reminder for conspiracy theorists: The ADP data (i.e. the second graph) does not come from the government.


  1. You might try using real data, rather than data intentionally fabricated by those involved with our government, who wish to mislead the public. Try this objective economic data instead and you will find another story --

    That is, no recovery is happening whatsoever.

  2. Wow, you changed my mind. Things are GREAT!!!

  3. Sadly for our angry bear, he doesnt realize the shadowstats merely mimic the official stats, but at a higher level.

    Look at the shadow stats unemployment graph from 1994-now, the official/shadow numbers move in tandem to one goes up the other one does, one goes down the other one does.

    Notice too how the shadowstats number is now teasing out a peak of unemployment the same way the official number is. James very well could have done his graphs on the shadowstats numbers and they would show the same trend (just on higher levels).

    Sadly, the permabears do this just about every time. Staying behind for months, even years, refusing to acknowledge certain things are peaking/bottoming, etc. I know one permabear who refused to admit the 82 recovery as late as 2009. I wonder how many years til this new younger crop of bears finally realizes its over.

  4. A reminder: The ADP data (i.e. the second graph) does NOT come from the government.

    You know the followers are wing-nut conspiracy theorists when they discount PRIVATE DATA, assuming it to be government data, just because they don't like what the data says. These people live in a world where facts and knowledge have no meaning. They live in a world where George W. Bush destroyed the World Trade Center, Barack Obama is not a natural-born U.S. citizen, and the UN Agenda 21 is intended to destroy the American middle class.

  5. James - all part of the agenda they push. Any stats regardless of who publishes them, are trusted when they show things they like to see. However, as soon as the data turns to show something they dont like, that data becomes "fabricated" or otherwise "untrustworthy".

    Eventually, as the "shadowstats" starts to show something they dont like, someone will create "shadow-shadowstats" to keep the party going a bit longer...

  6. "However, as soon as the data turns to show something they dont like, that data becomes "fabricated" or otherwise "untrustworthy"."

    Yep - and then the question becomes, and then what??? If the conspiracy theorists dont trust any data how do we know if things are getting better...or getting worse???

    Usually they then go to anecdotes about what they see around them...heh, talk about "trustworthy", what you see around you is a good indicator of whats going on in the United States??? Get a grip people.

  7. "Angry bear."

    "New younger crop of bears."

    "Wing-nut conspiracy theorists."

    Wow, seems I touched a nerve. Maybe research ShawdowStats sometime, and find that the guy running it is highly predictive and knows what the heck he is talking about. I make consistent money from trading real news, not govt-fabricated garbage. Try it sometime.

    Or you could go on regurgitating the emotional soundbites fed to you by the TV and radio personalities you let do your thinking for you.

    Good luck, who ever you are. Sad to see such belligerence.

  8. Hello Mr. Gullible(s) -- also consider the following:

    Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs, a highly respected research firm that tracks money flows into and out of the markets, said on Tuesday, “We do not know the source of money that pushed [the market capitalization] up $6 trillion since Mid-March. We cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast. The money did not come from the traditional players.

    Read the entire article at --

    I am bored by the regurgitating, gullible, self-aggrandizing white older males in the US who seriously believe they know something. You know shit. I can go for days proving your idiocy but I am afraid you would bore me to tears.

  9. From Google:
    recovery /rɪk'ʌvəri/

    2. When there is a recovery in a country's economy, it improves. N-VAR

    I don't think you can use job loss and recovery in the same sentence. Maybe you could call it a slowing of the bleeding, but we are still bleeding.

  10. Yeah but we are bleeding jobs that dont matter. See there is this 3 square mile area called "immunozone" where the economy is AWESOME!!!!

  11. On Feb 5th the BLS will be issuing a revision to the employment numbers down 824,000.

    I'm not denying the data is improving and positive employment reports are coming but massive deficit spending does not equal a sustainable recovery.

  12. from the ADP site itself-

    Q. Do estimates of employment shown in the ADP National Employment Report include a "net birth/death" adjustment?

    A. No. However, much of the BLS net birth/death adjustment is seasonal in nature, so the seasonal adjustment procedures used in the preparation of ADP National Employment Report implicitly capture much of this phenomenon.

    Q.How does this compare to the size of the monthly sample of payrolls on which BLS estimates of employment are based?
    A. BLS regularly surveys approximately 400,000 establishments employing roughly 50 million workers. However, historically the BLS initial estimate of employment has been based on roughly 66% of this sample (or 268,000 establishments), the second estimate (one month later) has been based on roughly 82% of this sample (or 328,000), and the third estimate (two months later) has been based on roughly 89% of this sample (or 356,000). Hence the ADP National Employment Report is based on more payrolls than the BLS estimates are based on establishments. However, the average size of the establishments surveyed by the BLS is lager than the average size of the payrolls processed by ADP.

    Q. Are there annual revisions to the estimates of employment shown in the ADP National Employment Report?

    A. Yes. Once a year, immediately after the annual level benchmarking of the BLS estimates of employment, the histories of all series published in the ADP National Employment Report are revised. These annual revisions reflect: (1) updated industry regressions based on the newly benchmarked BLS data, including the extension of the regression sample through the most recent benchmarked BLS data; (2) the advancement by twelve months of the reference period used to initialize the levels of employment shown in ADP National Employment Report; (3) the re-statement of historical seasonal factors.

    You can argue as to the accuracy or inaccuracy of the data, but I am facing a major increase in the numbers of unemployed seeking help. It has never been this high before, and any claims "things are getting better" is as accurate as "real estate always goes up."

    The jobs are simply not there, and no amount of data or figures ar calculating can whitewash that fact away.