Friday, February 05, 2010

Housing bubble poetry

Now we know what Prof. Karl Case (of S&P/Case-Shiller) is doing with his free time since he retired.

Hat tip: Greg Mankiw.


  1. Very nice summation.

    Couple items left out. The DJIA turned down on January 14, 2000, the NASDAQ fall was 2 months later in early March. These were visible symptoms of the Tech-Wreck, which was an early version of the current situation.

    The markets were falling before 9/11/2001.

    In my experience, the Tech-Wreck was worse. It took down Enron, Worldcom, PSI-Net, Ames, ($100M start up, failed immediately) dozens of companies. Friends lost jobs and millions of dollars.

    By the time 2006 came around, this was old hat and not a big deal. I have a place in Immundria with solid equity. I've been defensive on investments. My 401(k) is up. My income has increased since 2006.

    I have taken some hits. For the last two years, I've had to feed 6 extra mouths, in-laws who lost their jobs. This was just something that had to be done. They're working again. This saves $3,500/month.

    On balance there have been good prices on improvements to my place. I will do more this year since my cash-flow has improved.

    This is looking like a good year.

  2. "This is looking like a good year."

    You must be the only person in the entire country with such luck. Kudos to you!

    Must feel great to live such a fairy tail sounding life while the entire country around you is sinking...and its only going to get worse for everyone else around you when gov prop ups stop.

    I love how even your 401K is up! I know someone who lost over 100K in their 401K, he lives in the US, maybe he should move to "immunozone."

  3. Not exactly.

    My investment and income losses were in 2000-2002, roughly. These were bad, not as big as a friend who lost millions in the Tech-Wreck stock market but bad enough.

    I "missed" the stock market run up from 2002 to 2007 because I was afraid and in conservative funds. I also missed the market pullback to March 2008.

    When I saw the DJIA bottom in March, I simply moved from the conservative funds to small-cap, growth, overseas. I did that in April and early summer 2008.

    The bad tech job market of 2000-2003 forced me to learn new skills.

    My income improved from 2004 to today. Much of this was luck but some was result of hard work driven by desperation and fear.

    I liquidated an investment property. I did not get a good price but I have the cash in my S&L.

    I did look for another investment property but something did not seem right.

    My job is going as well as any these days. I received a small RFP for more work for my company.

    I have many friends who are worried about the economy but are doing OK, some are doing great.

    They are feds or work fed jobs as contractors. Their 80-140K covers their expenses. They may have family who are unemployed and as I did, are helping out.

    If you track the jobs and job projections, the area including Washington to Baltimore is doing well.

    I think Washington RE is in recovery but we won't know that for a while. There are reports of investor types snapping up property.

  4. "If you track the jobs and job projections, the area including Washington to Baltimore is doing well. "

    Like I said, only in "immunozone", the other 49 states and the rest of the 99.5% of the US population is going down like the titanic. Kudos to you...maybe you can sell off your house and 401K and buy up the rest of the country! You might even be deemed a hero for saving the country!

  5. Homeowners!!! Get out there and shovel while I sit back and take a sip of tea. hahahahah

  6. "Helping to find a solution"

    In some case the solutin is as bad as the problem...

  7. Being poetic about the housing crises with all that terminology = not an easy task. Well done. Maybe he and Shiller could form a blues band to help easy our economic pains.