Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Existing home sales continue their death spiral

More evidence that the housing bubble will keep deflating when government doesn't prop it up:
Existing home sales fell sharply in July, declining for a third straight month, as the effects of the expired homebuyer tax credit continued to add turbulence to the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales sank 27.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units, down from the downwardly revised rate of 5.26 million in June. Sales year-over-year were down 25.2%.

Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for resales in July to fall to an annual rate of 4.72 million units.

The sales pace of all homes — single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — is at the lowest since NAR began tracking the figure in 1999. Sales of single-family homes, which account for a bulk of the transactions, are at the lowest level since May 1995.

22 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I'm not sure the interventions caused the bust. One might say the dramatic month-over-month drop is the result of pulling demand forward with the tax credit, but I think things would have ground down to here regardless.

    Sooo....who has numbers for inside the beltway? I wanna know if people are still paying >$.5M for a rowhouse in the 'hood with driveby shootings!

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  3. Go to http://www.mris.com and click on "News > Market Statistics"

    Then select "Monthly Trend Indicator" and generate a report for July 2010 for Arlington County.

    Total dollar volume sold is down 18%, total units sold is down 25%, average days on market is down 16%, and median sold price is up 8%.

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  4. The statistics can be skewed by a number of things. We know some 20-somethings who just have to live down in some place like Clarendon. I suppose because that's where all of the nightlife is. But the places are expensive as can be, so what they do is double and triple up so they can afford the thing.

    For one house the individual shares were 2k$/mo, and that's to share with a couple of other people. But if you want that penthouse view bachelor pad, I suppose that's the price you have to pay for it.

    Eventually the guy we knew got priced out - even with this crazy stuff, so he ended up moving back home with Mom and Dad. Which won't really help his social life very much, I suppose, but at least he will have money to spend around whereas the other guys can barely afford to go out and buy a beer.

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  5. Anon & Jack Russel. Just give it time. I still believe that Arlington is in for a lot of pain. The NAR numbers out today arent pretty, and they are just a taste of what is headed for the "fortress" areas.

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  6. I love how every national post becomes an Arlington discussion.

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  7. I have lived in Clarendon for 4 years and my rent has not increased. So how can the values of condos increase here when there is no corresponding rental increase? Is it because many of the condos that were built before the inflated values bubble have been converted to condos and therefore more supply is on the market? Is it deflation? By the way, I think Clarendon is very generic and I will be moving to DC in the next few months.

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  8. Neil had his ass handed to him.

    Are you unemployed now, Neil?

    Got Popcorn?

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  9. "Anonymous said...
    Neil had his ass handed to him.

    Are you unemployed now, Neil?

    Got Popcorn?"

    LOL! Alot of the younger guys here wont get that - but from one long timer to another - thanks for reminding me of that footnote of bubble lore!!!

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  10. No jobs, rising unemployment = housing price declines. No jobs on the horizon, either. The plan is to get rid of everything but high-tech service jobs and green jobs. This could be awhile. I'd hate to be owning right now. The elevator is going dooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.

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  11. There was an interesting video report in the middle of the story linked in the main post. It had to do with the housing bubble in China. Prices up 40% since Jan 2009 - even we never had anything as crazy as that.

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  12. The elevator is going dooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    It sure is. I mean look at the last 13 months...

    2009
    July +2.65%
    Aug +1.73%
    Sep +11.96%
    Oct +0.15%
    Nov +9.38%
    Dec +14.06%

    2010
    Jan +13.10%
    Feb +12.38%
    Mar +10.94%
    Apr +11.47%
    May +8.33%
    Jun +11.84%
    Jul +12.79%

    Wow down down down it goes!!!

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  13. If the economy is doing so well, then go buy some property and sit on it for a few years. Walk the talk.

    Then ride the elevator doooooooowwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.

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  14. No one is saying the economy is doing "so well". However, for whatever reason, prices are rising, despite your contention that the elevator is going downnnnn.

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  15. Prices aren't rising. I guess your one of the idiots who didnt even read the blog post.

    Here is the chart for you dumb dumbs again.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2010/08/24/real_estate/existing_home_sales/chart_home_prices2.top.gif

    and here is another one

    http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/

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  16. The next big news item that we will read will have something to do with foreign investment companies (some Chinese) purchasing US real estate at rock bottom prices for the long-term. That US citizens no longer own property in their own country. That this should be a reason to revamp the political process.

    Wait and see. I know the future. All one has to do is read UN documents that are publicly available.

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  17. LOL! Alot of the younger guys here wont get that - but from one long timer to another - thanks for reminding me of that footnote of bubble lore!!!

    Heh...I remember Neil too...and though I shared his take on a lot of it, I got really really tired of the stupid "got popcorn" bit.

    @SAM - spot on.

    The misleading thing about "rising median prices" is that it really fails to describe the inventory mix of what is actually selling. Cash rich buyers who are able to continue burning money can go ahead and buy Mclean mansions...that doesn't mean the bulk of the market isn't sinking.

    I'm not watching Arlington and I don't really care too much - my interest is in some of the hipsterville areas in DC proper - row houses in 'da hood which were around $150k pre-bubble and are somehow supposed to be worth >$.5M now. Or worse, have been turned into "condos". At least Arlington has a school system such that the values make some sense.

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  18. Anonymous said...
    Prices aren't rising. I guess your one of the idiots who didnt even read the blog post.

    Thank you for posting those NATIONAL results. For those of us looking to buy property in the NATIONAL area, the elevator is indeed going down.

    For those of us in the DC area the results are

    2009
    July +2.65%
    Aug +1.73%
    Sep +11.96%
    Oct +0.15%
    Nov +9.38%
    Dec +14.06%

    2010
    Jan +13.10%
    Feb +12.38%
    Mar +10.94%
    Apr +11.47%
    May +8.33%
    Jun +11.84%
    Jul +12.79%

    So once again, for those of you looking elsewhere in the nation, the elevator is going downnnnn. For those of you looking in the DC area, the elevator is going UUUUUUPPP...

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  19. Anon at 4:03, where are those numbers coming from?

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  20. JAC - in this case Fairfax County.

    http://www.recharts.com/mris/mris_3.html

    Similar results (the elevator going up) can be seen in Arlington, Alexandria, Loudoun & Prince William Co.

    In DC, and Mo. Co, its more of a mixed bag.

    In the rest of MD, its still downnnnnn.

    Honestly, I dont know why James doesnt post the MRIS results here regularly. These used to be the highlight of every month when they were released. However, prices started going up, this blog decided not to post them anymore (not sure why).

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  21. "Thank you for posting those NATIONAL results. For those of us looking to buy property in the NATIONAL area, the elevator is indeed going down. "

    Oh, I didnt realize you were talking about ONLY the street you live on. I guess its because this blog post was talking about the nation. I appreciate you posting Arlington figures though, that eases my mind here in San Francisco!

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  22. "Oh, I didnt realize you were talking about ONLY the street you live on. I guess its because this blog post was talking about the nation. I appreciate you posting Arlington figures though, that eases my mind here in San Francisco!"

    Nope, I wasnt talking about my street. I was talking about Fairfax county - single the most populous county in the DC area - over 1,000,000 people. I figured this was appropriate for this blog which by its own admission pays "SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE WASHINGTON DC AREA".

    BTW, if you just want to talk about SF, why not just say so from the beginning? Why not focus on SF stats and tell us which way the elevator is going?

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