Saturday, January 29, 2011

Robert Shiller interview


  1. Shiller is right. Latest data not so good for housing.

  2. It is crazy to try to sell a home. Potential buyers low-ball ruthlessly. It's ugly.

    The only thing working in favor of sellers is the ability to rent out.

    DC rents seem more pricey today than say 2008. If you're paying $1,800 for a rent and believe it's a better deal than owning, all I can say is good for you.

  3. "Q4 2010: Homeownership Rate Falls to 1998 Levels"

    The outlook for mortgage debtors is not good. Unless you're in the DC area, of course!

    DC to the rest of the country: "Eat Cake!"

  4. The Robert Shiller interview shows that no one knows the future of the housing market. In the DC real estate market, there is a bubble which insulates home prices from the full affect of the economic downturn. Over the past few months, we have seen an increase in homebuyer activity in DC.

    It is correct that homes which are not priced aggressively will stay longer on the market and eventually drop 3%-5% in price from the original listing price. Regardless of the market, people still value location and interest rates as their primary determinants for purchasing.

  5. The housing market continues to look increasingly grim, but it's difficult to tell whether or not there's a ray of hope in the dark or not. Like Jason said, no one can really predict the future of the housing market. Half the analysts think it has nowhere to go but up and the other half think we've got a long way to go before we hit the bottom.

  6. look at Rent/buy, yield and price/income.

    2 of those measures say rent.

  7. "increasingly grim"
    This does not appear to be as universal as it did a few years ago. I know that home prices and tax assesments in some areas of arlington have actually started going back up. I purchased a home 2 years ago and was upset when last year a home sold for $20k less in the same development. Over the last 3 months 4 out of the three homes in my development that went for sale sold and they all went for as much if not more than what I paid for mine. The one home currently on the market probably has not sold because the owner is asking 50k more than what I paid for mine and the layout of theres is very poorly done on his model. Tax assessments are also going back up do to the recent home sales.