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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The Bubble Meter Philosophy
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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When will inflation-adjusted DC-area housing prices return to pre-bubble levels?
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Bubble Meter Archive
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2011
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March
(18)
- S&P/Case-Shiller indices still falling
- The housing bubble according to Shadow Stats
- The housing market keeps getting worse
- Bubble Meter is in the pocket of Realtors!
- There never was a housing bubble!
- Almost 1 in 5 Florida homes are empty
- Zillow ZHVI vs S&P/Case-Shiller HPI
- The Ultimate Real Estate Scam-Artist Flashback Remix
- The left has been consistently wrong on foreclosures
- The housing bubble and the trade deficit
- Washington, DC Metro Area Home Values
- The Housing Bubble Blog — Dead?
- Free housing in London
- Home prices would have to drop another 15%
- Regulators pushing for 20% down payments
- Fannie and Freddie borrowing from government to pa...
- 23% of mortgaged homes are underwater
- Median U.S. house price
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March
(18)
Perhaps the "Gay Oil Guru" will provide us with details regarding his soaring home value. (and they joys of car ownership in the District of Columbia)
ReplyDeleteZillow??????
ReplyDeleteYou bet your ass they are falling! And until values hit the 2003 level, they won't stop falling. So enjoy the show!
ReplyDeleteAnd yet, Case Shiller (who measures same) house sales, shows that prices are indeed rising - currently more than 4% YOY in DC, and up 12% from the march 09 bottom.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us
Oh, how sad for you!!!
Yeah, I would like to understand Zillow's home "values" versus recorded home sales prices. I think the former may be more valuable for a prospective buyer but it is subjective somehow--they have to be factoring in some other data. The latter, however, likely has a selection bias favoring more expensive places...
ReplyDelete-sniff sniff-
ReplyDeleteI smell someone who owes money on a condo in Arlington!
Remy, is that you?
Arlington: The Rap
-sniff sniff-
ReplyDeleteFee Fi Foe Fum, I smell the blood of a condo owner in Arlington!
Remy, is that you?
Arlington: The Rap
Huh. Why the discrepancy with Case-Shiller?
ReplyDeleteAnd median prices, and price PSF, and Core Logic, and Zillow's sale prices, all of which are going up?
ReplyDeleteI think the biggest difference between Case-Shiller and Zillow is how they treat foreclosures. Case-Shiller counts foreclosures and Zillow doesn't. It's a philosophical difference. I think Zillow is correct. A given house is legitimately worth a lower price if it is a foreclosure sale rather than a regular sale, because the buyer takes a greater risk in a foreclosure sale. Thus, a foreclosure crisis distorts CS, but not Zillow.
ReplyDeleteAnother big difference is that Case-Shiller only tracks homes that are selling (or being refinanced). Zillow tries to estimate the value of ALL homes. If people with falling home values keep their homes off the market, they won't get counted by CS, but they will get counted by Zillow. Again, at least conceptually, Zillow is the better model.
The downside to Zillow is that occasionally they come out with some really wild estimates of a particular home's value. One would hope that the aggregate of these wild estimates average out to equal the market price, but we can't know for sure.
I think at least Zillow provides one value: the trend!
ReplyDeleteThis from Zillow:
ReplyDelete"An important property of the Zillow Zestimate that allows us to aggregate them into a very accurate and reliable Zindex is that they have relatively little systematic error meaning that, while each Zestimate has some margin of error, they are just as likely to be above the actual sale price of a home as below. This means that individual estimates, each with some error, can be aggregated to form a quite accurate measure of all homes. What little systematic error does creep into the Zestimates is removed from all historical data series when we calculate the Zindex for the quarterly reports."
I've got a post coming on Friday that will show how true that is.
ReplyDeleteThe 2011 spring housing market is very soft. Sales are markedly down from 2010. Shiller's prediction that home prices will fall another 15% - 20% this year is likely to come true.
ReplyDeleteWhat planet are you on? Clearly not in the vincinity of Wash., DC.
ReplyDelete