Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Lowest tier of housing falling the most
The new S&P/Case-Shiller numbers come out later this morning. In the meantime, I thought I'd show you guys this little graph from CNBC. It shows that since the peak, the lowest tier of homes have fallen the most. But, the reason they have fallen the most is because they rose the most during the bubble.
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DC results are out - DC is at 186.76 a huge move up over last month. Assuming this months results hold, prices are now rising at 4% on a YOY basis, and are up, roughly 12% from the bottom.
ReplyDeleteIn news that is mostly of interest to myself and JAC, last months revision was indeed large enough to take it out of my column, and put it in his. So, as of last month, the score now stands at JAC 2, Partisan 0. Nicely done JAC.
That said, the April seasonal bounce was huge - slightly bigger than last years. This was a shock to me as I assumed the loss of the tax credit would mean the bounce was going to be alot more muted. Thus, even if it is (likely) revised down, the score will almost certainly remain JAC 2, Partisan 1, and I have the inside track on the next few months. Our predictions & results are as follows:
Month.....Partisan...JAC......Average....Actual....Winner
Feb........183.5......182.5.....183.0.......181.0....JAC
Mar........183.0......181.0.....182.0.......181.3....JAC
Apr........183.0......179.0.....181.0.......186.8....Partisan
May........183.5......180.0.....181.75.....?????......?????
Jun........184.5.......177.0.....180.75.....?????......?????
Jul.........186.0.......177.0....181.5.......?????......?????
The April increase puts the hurt on my predictions big time--in looking at them I think I definitely should have put some more seasonality in. But, as of now I'll enjoy the view from my 2-1 perch.
ReplyDeleteI do also note however that sales pairs are at another all time low at 2192, a whopping 46% lower than a year ago and 1/3 lower than my 3025 prediction. People are just not selling. My theory was that this would hold through the summer "high" season and then sellers would start to resign themselves to accepting a lower price...we'll see how it unfolds...
ReplyDeleteThe next lowest sales pair numbers were seen in Feb and March of 1991, just a couple months into the mayoral tenure of Sharon Pratt Dixon/Kelly, "one of the most ignominious periods in modern D.C. history." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharon_Pratt_Kelly
ReplyDeleteI live in Charlotte and my
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estate agent in charlotte was informing me that my housing market actually isn't too bad which makes me very happy :)
Dont despair too much JAC. I clearly discounted it too. As of this moment, the April MOM jump was the 3rd largest in the 20+ year history of CS. Given that its highly unlikely we are entering a new bubble, this april level is almost certainly going to be revised down next month probably into the high 184, low 185 range.
ReplyDeleteEven at that level, I am still pretty comfy as I am on the high side of our average as we head into the stronger summer months. Still for the record, this is a much bigger number than I predicted.
As an aside. Hey Bright Moon - I never did get a straight answer out of you as to what your warning of an imminent "cliff" meant.
ReplyDeleteSeeing as you were so cryptic, I have to ask, was this months CS value the "cliff" you warned of. Was the 3rd highest MOM move in CS history of DC the "cliff" that I was foolish not to heed?
If so, kudos to you my friend. I never anticipated we would move this much higher in a month. I was wrong and you were right. Your prescience was again visible my friend. Bwahahahahaha!!!
the reason they have fallen the most is because they rose the most during the bubble - great one topic to discuss.
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