Tuesday, September 27, 2005


The Pinnellas County, Fl Realtors Organization released this report on housing in the Tampa area. They declared that "In fact, the local housing market is in excellent shape with a potential for significant housing equity gains, particularly for homebuyers who plan to remain in their house for the long run."

The Realtors applied various stress tests to the Tampa area market. Here was one such test:
The local housing market will experience a price decline of 5% only under extreme unlikely scenarios. For example, mortgage rates rising to 13.5% in combination with local job losses totaling 66,000 could lead to a price decline.
Could lead to a price decline? Price declines would be a virtual certainty. If those conditions happen price declines would be far greater then 5%. The results of their stress test is complete BS.

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