Thursday, September 15, 2005

Real Estate Expert And A Banker Talk B.S.

According to Alan Nevin, a longtime local San Diego real estate specialist "You will wait forever" for a bubble to burst in San Diego. Forever is a big word. Alan Nevin is being quoted by the North County Times.

The double-digit annual increases in home prices of recent years dropped last summer to about 5 percent to 7 percent a year. That transition eased what had been an unsustainable spiral down to a normal market that can go on indefinitely.

"And everybody missed it," said Nevin, director of research at San Diego's MarketPointe Realty Advisors. "People are just starting to recognize it now.

Not sure what he means. Plenty jumped in on the speculative episode. Maybe he means that people missed the slowdown.

From Oceanside to downtown San Diego, the economy is so well diversified it is nearly invulnerable to collapse, Nevin said. That diversification and the stabilized real estate market makes prospects for the region almost scarily good."

The economy is basically healthy. There don't seem to be any weak spots," Nevin said in after-talk remarks. "Right now, there's no one employer that has more than half of 1 percent of the jobs in the county."

Ok. But, I am sure there are sectors of the economy that represent close to 5% of the economy (hint you are a participant).

Asked where he would recommend buying real estate in the North County coastal area, Nevin replied: "Everywhere. There's no negatives."
Nevin is an impassioned cheerleader. Go leverage to the max. Yikes.

Nevin's talk was reassuring, said Frank Mercardante, Southwest president and chief executive."

He emphasized there is no bubble and there won't be, because of the demand for real estate here in San Diego County," Mercardante said.

Mercardante said that as a banker, he has to think of problems that would keep him up at night, and asked Nevin what would keep him up at night about the economy."

He said, 'Nothing,' " Mercardante said.

Nothing? How about offshoring, federal debt / deficit, high energy costs, security risks, consumer debt, the huge trade deficit. Mercardante spouts complete bullsh*t.


  1. Where can I get some of that stuff that Nevin is smoking?

  2. Yeah, I'd say that Nevin is a greater fool. As in, a fool buys property when prices are rising on the expectation that a greater fool will buy the same property at a higher price.

    I feel sorry for most of the commentators I read on this blog. I really do. It seems to me that none of you have ever known an honest real estate broker.

    My family has been in real estate for over 30 years. I've seen it all. I remember well the peso devaluation in 1981. There were over 44,000 foreclosures in South Texas in the first month alone. 1/3 of the real estate companies went bankrupt and disappeared in 90 days. Then came the banking crisis, and a whole lot of people lost a whole lot of money.

    I also remember the tech bubble of the 90s. One of my best friends, who is a brilliant programmer by the way, was making over $400,000 in those days. Of course, today he's completely broke and can't make any money to save his life, even if he could find a job.

    This is what I learned from my parents, who built one of the most successful real estate companies in South Texas. There is only one way to do business, and that is honestly and straight up. We aren't in the least concerned with how much money we can make. We are solely concerned with providing the best service we possibly can. Integrity is our only concern. I'd rather lose a sale than lie to someone or sell them a house they can't afford.

    Forget the "experts". They only want your money. Taking out high-risk, low-yield loans is no way to make money. Focus on the fundamentals--income vs. expenses, yield vs. risk--invest in low-risk, high-yield investments, and you'll do just fine. Listen to the "experts" and you'll go bankrupt. That's all I know.