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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The Bubble Meter Philosophy
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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Bubble Meter Archive
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2007
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March
(19)
- Rowhouses in Foggy Bottom
- A Bailout for 'Homeowners' and / or Lenders?
- Bubble Economy Cartoon
- Who's To Blame for the Housing Bubble Fiasco
- BubbleSphere Roundup
- Bubble Meter Blog Mentioned in the Washington Post...
- No Spring Bounce in The Bubble Markets
- YoY Inventory Numbers in Northern Virginia
- Cancelled: Pavillions at Takoma Condo Project
- David Lereah Watch Tops Google Search
- Cheery Economist: Florida Economy 'Strong', Jobs ...
- Subprime Mortgage Meltdown
- Bubble Meter Predictions Revisited
- Mica Condo Closeout
- Realtor Membership Drops Significantly
- BubbleSphere Roundup
- Lereah Blames Declining Sales on 'Weather Disrupti...
- Mortgage Center of America in Noerthern Virginia
- Lereah Lashes Out at Me and My Other Blog
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March
(19)
David
ReplyDeletelooking grimmer all the time- we knew this would happen for a long time-
could it match the worse of those doomsday scenarios some have spoke of?
Scary.
I have been somewhat bearish for several years, but I'm seeing signs of an uptick in the market in Alexandria City (very close in suburb to DC). Things are starting to move quickly, and inventory has not spiked as it had during Spring 2006. I've been waiting for more "forced sale" inventory to reach the market due to rate adjustments on 2004 and 2005 vintage I/O ARMs; it has not happened yet. Although the subprime market is imploding, the underlying foreclosures are popping up somewhere else.
ReplyDeleterobert said:
ReplyDelete"I've been waiting for more "forced sale" inventory to reach the market due to rate adjustments on 2004 and 2005 vintage I/O ARMs"
How does one spell VULTURE? And so the BHs' motives for wishing the worst on the rest of us are explicitly confirmed. No pretext at good moral reasons behind their "warnings"! Ha! Got to luv it when the fabricated cloak of decency is shed.
Lance,
ReplyDeleteYou have claimed that you approached the former owner of your home, made an offer significantly under market, and then got the owner to finance the mortgage to you. How is this any less predatory than what was mentioned in Robert's post?
If anything, it's more egregious. You cost that owner 6 figures worth of value according to your statements...
My $0.02.
Inventory is still higher than it was last year at this point.
ReplyDeleteAnd on Capitol Hill where I live, I'm seeing houses pop up for sale everywhere. From my front porch, I can see 5 houses for sale.
2007 is going to be a rough year.
Robert,
ReplyDeleteRegarding the recently bullish signs, I would hazard the following guess. There are a lot of people that have been priced out for some time and they're finally seeing a pullback. I think these are the people jumping all over the few really great, well priced properties hitting the market. Not sure that it will last more than a single spring selling season though. Of course, this is just loosely based on looking at the past run up in the late 80's early 90's. If you look at the data from NVAR, after the market pulled back from its massive run through '89, it went flat for a year, and then spiked in '91. After '91, it essentially sat flat for 7 years...
My $0.02.
source: http://www.nvar.com/market/history.lasso
Inventory is continuing its downward trend:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/DC/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/
Unless the trend reverses dramatically, in a month inventory will be down year over year.
"Lance, still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the drop in median price in your zip code. You said it would not happen. Are you ready to admit you were wrong about that prediction? Be a man, own up. "
ReplyDeleteHe should do that just as soon as David admits he was wrong that we'd be in a recession by now. So far I haven't seen any contrition.
Yeah, mytwocents, and everybody knows exactly the same thing HAS to happen this time. Anybody who disagrees is just saying "it's different this time" and is obviously a realtor. You're a joke.
ReplyDeleteSorry society didn't collapse like you hoped.
mytwocents said:
ReplyDelete"made an offer significantly under market"
The seller set the price and I paid the full asking price. You're showing again how BHs have a real tendency to "fill in the blanks" with their own preconceived notions.
Real Bob:
"You said it would not happen."
Again, a BH attributing words to others that were never stated. On the contrary, I said that because of all the condos coming available that the average and median prices would drop in my zip code as well as in the district. What I said was that house prices in Dupont would for a period of 12 to 18 months either stay put or go up very little. Do your research, you'll find that they have continued to rise as evidenced by the recent new assessments from the District ... And note that 20009 includes several other neighborhoods in addition to Dupont ... including Columbia Heights which is a world away.
A common thread I am seeing with BHs is that they constantly attribute to others intentions and acts that are in accord with their own pre-conceived notions rather than established fact. More importantly, they make their assumptions without ever asking for facts first. Is it no wonder they are basically "lost" when it comes to purchasing a home? Rather than looking to those who can help them with the biggest expense they'll ever incur, they instead seek to criticize and find fault. I sense a lot of paranoia ... And this is evidenced is just about everything said and done. Look at how David Lereah has been demonized ... It's disgusting ... very disgusting. Grow up kids.
Interesting post on the UK personal debt market:
ReplyDeletehttp://economicdespair.blogspot.com
Rising personal debt is mostly house price driven. Although things got kinda outta control here in the US, it didn't get so out of whack as it did over there. Worse, prices are still rising.
Be advised fellow BH’s…….and Lance,
ReplyDeleteEvidently there are now two “Roberts” posting on this blog.
Anon 8:01,
ReplyDeleteI'm not hoping for society to collapse. If you notice, I said I had "a guess" for his observations "based loosely" on what happened in the past. You are the one that extended that to be some sort of single minded diatribe against the REIC and all who own homes...
Sorry if my looking at the past values of homes to attempt to gauge their current worth offends your own notions.
My $0.02.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070304/COLUMNISTS42/703040326/1014/BUSINESS
ReplyDelete-So, the facts are that our sales are slowing, our prices are falling and our inventory is growing. Now that you're armed with the facts, draw your own conclusion.-
A nice little read for ya “Lance”.
robert said...
ReplyDelete"http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070304/COLUMNISTS42/703040326/1014/BUSINESS
-So, the facts are that our sales are slowing, our prices are falling and our inventory is growing. Now that you're armed with the facts, draw your own conclusion.-
A nice little read for ya “Lance”."
Robert, re-read the article before you go break your piggy bank to get out your downpayment in anticipation of prices plunging. The guy talks about inventory increasing ... 'cept it's not. Why? Probably 'cause he's just talking about southwest Florida. You want a bargain price? Move to southwest Florida. Be sure to send a postcard!
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“The guy talks about inventory increasing ... 'cept it's not.
Why? Probably 'cause he's just talking about southwest Florida. You want a bargain price? Move to southwest Florida. Be sure to send a postcard!”
Thanks for missing the point “Lance”.
robert said...
ReplyDelete"Lance said...
“The guy talks about inventory increasing ... 'cept it's not.
Why? Probably 'cause he's just talking about southwest Florida. You want a bargain price? Move to southwest Florida. Be sure to send a postcard!”
Thanks for missing the point “Lance”."
Oh ... I get your point now. If it's happening in Florida than, by gosh, it's gonna happen here too!
I sincerely hope you put a little more thought into other aspects of your life and don't just assume that if something has happened in one case, it HAS to happen in another. Scrape a little under the surface and it's not all that difficult to see there is NO correlation to the price rise of a growing and re-invigerated Washington DC and a retirement and "lots for sale to the gullible" southwest Florida. Just like there is no correlation between and aging population Japan and a re-invigorated US where we have 1/3 more people living here than we did a mere 35 years ago ...
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Oh ... I get your point now. If it's happening in Florida than, by gosh, it's gonna happen here too!.”
-Fact 1. Our residential market experienced irrational growth. Real estate follows cycles and for many years our market was relatively flat. But from about 1999 to the beginning of 2004, our market started heating up, as we saw the median price of a home increase an average of 17 percent a year. This was manageable because we had enough "user" demand to absorb it.-
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“I find it funny how not a one of you dared comment on the article about London.”
Oh ... I get your point now. If it's happening in London then, by gosh, it's gonna happen here too!
robert said...
ReplyDelete"Lance said...
“I find it funny how not a one of you dared comment on the article about London.”
Oh ... I get your point now. If it's happening in London then, by gosh, it's gonna happen here too!"
No, you again missed the point. It has happened here already. I posted a link to article in the Post the other day that discussed the big bump earnings experienced in the US in January because of similar type bonuses ... and government pay increases. I don't remember you commenting on it. You keep asking for facts, but when I post them you ignore them since they aren't the facts you're hoping to hear.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“I posted a link to article in the Post the other day that discussed the big bump earnings experienced in the US in January because of similar type bonuses ... and government pay increases.”
“Lance”, I did miss the post indicating earnings keeping pace with housing. Please post again.
If earnings have kept in step with housing, why the increase in foreclosures?
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“…..and government pay increases.”
Please re-post that article. If I recall correctly, the government pay increase was less than 3%.
"Just like there is no correlation between and aging population Japan and a re-invigorated US where we have 1/3 more people living here than we did a mere 35 years ago ..."
ReplyDeleteActually, I really dont see that 1/3rd population, that just came over fresh off the boat to pick oranges and cotton from the fields, buying a half a million dollar one bedroom condo any time soon.
If you look up statistics, the children of the baby boomers are having less children...
The big US companies that used to pay well now hire offshore etc...
Now, Im not predicting doomsday, but dont think population itself means value of property....1/2 of the earths total population is in dirt poor asian or african countries where you can buy a house for a US nickel
Supply and demand only work when the demand can afford the supply. The prices in this area being affordable to the average income earner are as realistic as unicorns and fairies
I'm waiting for the "interest-only" loan balloon payments to start coming due...THAT should be fun to watch, and a great time to snap up a terrific home at a reasonable price. Call me a vulture, but at least I was smart enough to wait until I can get a home I could afford.
ReplyDelete