Tuesday, May 15, 2007

BubbleSphere Roundup

Who will replace David 'paid shill' Lereah? There is some speculation it will be Lawrence 'Lereah Lacky' Yun.

Paper Money explores the relationship between discretionary spending and home prices. "A lot has been made in recent years about the “wealth effect” associated to the unprecedented home value appreciation .... "

DC Housing Bubble Blues
will be missed. It has not been updated in over two months. :-(

Palm Beach County, FL: "The number of unsold homes on the market from Boca Raton to Vero Beach has been steadily rising, surging to a record 24,028 homes for sale in March, according to Illustrated Properties Real Estate. That's a 27-month supply at the March sales pace. The same month a year ago, there were 18,178 unsold homes." (Palm Beach Post)

The National Association of Realtors responded to Sunday's 60 minutes segment on real estate. In their response they stated that "The one-sided journalism and egregious errors served no one well." Someone is running scared of Redfin and others.


  1. "coming soon to Washington, DC"

    from the RedFin website!


  2. Hilarious Trade org that sends out talking points pre program then uses same TP's in their own rebuttle, ha ha....

    NAR= Not Actually Relevant

  3. "The one-sided journalism and egregious errors served no one well."

    That statment is in fact true, one-sided journalism and egregious errors serve no one well. The NAR should hold themselves to that standard.

  4. Maybe things got more cheerful for DC Blues

  5. Unfortunately, David continues to miss the big news in favor of the little news: Home prices drop for third straight quarter

    By the way, here's an interesting hypothesis regarding investment bubbles. Speculation leads to over-investment and overbuilding, which leads to excess supply, which benefits consumers in the long run: The bubbles that built America

  6. Here are my numbers. I thought of buying last year. I was ready to pay 430,000, which would have given me a final monthly payment around $3,000 after the tax break. But I did not so I continued to rent for $2,000.
    So, I saved 12,000 in real cash by not buying because the house would be worth less than my sale price.
    Now, we could be much more specific about loan rates or how much equity I would get after 1 year of payments or the exact payment per month, or maintainence costs. But no matter how you tweak the money costs the savings is in renting, for now.

    I made 7% per year on my last house, and that was a respectable profit for a well maintained home. If you buy a house and give away 20% per year to the seller then thats your problem.

    I really get tired of posters who have an agenda to bully people into buying. Do not fall into the trap dear reader. Solidarity will ensure us a fair price in the near future.


  7. Didn’t we just have the largest drop in recorded history?:


    Home prices drop for third straight quarter
    Realtors report that markets are still softening
    May 15 2007: 2:07 PM EDT

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. home prices fell for their third straight quarter, according to an industry report released Tuesday.

    The median price of a single-family home fell 1.8 percent to $212,300 for the three months ended March 31, compared with the first quarter of 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

    It was the third consecutive quarter of decline, and prices are now down 6.5 percent from their peak of $227,100 in 2006.
    The home price report revealed a broad but shallow pattern with prices declining over every region but by no more than 2.8 percent, which occurred in the Midwest.

    The first-quarter drop follows an overall 2.7 percent slump in the fourth quarter of 2006, which was the biggest year-over-year drop on record.

    NAR President Pat V. Combs said in a statement that the flattening in home prices is encouraging.
    "It appears the worst of the price correction is behind us," she said. "More stable home prices and declining mortgage interest rates are increasing buying power, which should encourage potential buyers who've been on the sidelines."

    Looks like they're attempting to call the bottom………again.

    David, better get the “Pat Combs watch” up and running. (If NAR has already snatched the blog spot) No worries, looks like you’ll just have to cut and paste the comments from DL….same old same old.

  8. "The one-sided journalism and egregious errors served no one well."

    General rule of argument: if you can't include a single compelling counterpoint in your sound bite quote, you have no compelling counterpoint.

    I know my girlfriend jumped on the computer and started watching all of Redfin's promotional material as soon as the segment was over.

  9. What is funny is how dimwits like Lance keep trying to insist that DC is different and that our local bubble is somehow unrelated to the national bubble.

    Every area has its own particular factors, but there is absolutely no doubt that national lending trends are playing a huge role in real estate today.

  10. $3,000 for a townhouse is ridiculous and $4,000 or more for single family is even more outrageous!

    I am willing to pay $2,000 and maybe a little additional for taxes etc for a townhouse and thats it. Prices need to get back to reality and I refuse to move out to Centerville or the boonies to live.

  11. ""anon said: "With the coming tightening in lending standards ... "

    Do you know something we don't know? What is your authoritative source for the "fact" that lending standards are going to be tightened? - Lance July 01, 2006 10:07 AM "

    I just thought we could all use a laugh...

    btw lance, have you seen the latest new home construction numbers? Largest drop in new construction in 17 years... 26% less than last year's already weakening numbers... new PERMITS dropped 9%... largest amount in 24 years...

    Sounds like a soft landing to me...

  12. anonymous said...
    "I refuse to move out to Centerville or the boonies to live."

    I live in Centreville and I like it here, but I don't work in DC. I would hate to take I-66 during rush hour.

  13. I hate to say it... but most consider Centreville to be the ghetto of the the Norhtern Virginia suburbs. That seems to be the general consensus.

    Even my landlord moved to Fairfax from Centreville for that very reason. He's also said he's so much happier now that he did and has nothing nice to say about living in Centreville.

    To each his own, I suppose.

  14. A ghetto? Just because the VA Tech shooter came from here? Nah.

    I find Centreville to be a step up from western Alexandria and Springfield. Fairfax and Falls Church are way to crowded for me. Loudoun County might be nice, but then the commute to work becomes hell.

    If I had the money and didn't have to work, I'd really love to live on the shore of the Chesapeake.

  15. From Wikipedia (2000 Census):

    The median income for a household in the CDP was $90,232. Males had a median income of $70,123 versus $41,117 for females. The per capita income for the CDP was $40,878.

    Fairfax City
    The median income for a household in the city was $67,642. Males had a median income of $50,348 versus $38,351 for females. The per capita income for the city was $31,247.

  16. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gloom-settles-over-housing-sector/

    Gloom settles over housing market
    By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
    Last Update: 12:01 AM ET May 20, 2007

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The spring housing market is turning out to be something of a dud, dashing hopes of a turnaround.
    The spring season typically sets the tone for the last half of the year. This year, that tone is pretty gloomy.
    "The housing market is struggling to get back on its feet," according to Sal Guatieri, economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
    "The spring-selling season is coming well below expectations," agreed Mario Ricchio, a housing analysts with Zacks.com.
    At the beginning of the year, there was hope that housing had turned the corner. But these expectations seem to have faded away. "We were seeing signs of recovery last year, but a lot of that reflected warmer than usual weather," Guatieri said. -