Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Short Sale in Silver Spring, MD: 30% Real Dollar Decline from 2006.

The number of short sales and foreclosures available for purchase is increasing in the Washington, DC area. Here is one short sale from the Kemp Mill neighborhood which is in Silver Spring a few miles outside of the beltway. It is located at 908 HYDE RD, Silver Spring, MD 20902.

The Maryland Property Search shows this 3 bedroom house was purchased in September 2006 for 459,000. Now almost two years later it is being sold as a short sale for 340,000. Which is a nominal reduction of 26% and a inflation adjusted decline of over 30%.

MLS #: MC6811928.

Prices continue to decline in the Washington, DC area as foreclosure activity increases, mortgage rates rise and the general economic situation declines. This housing bust is not over yet. Expect continued price declines over the coming years.


  1. How did you find this short sale? I've tried to track down a web-based foreclosure search engine without paying subscription fees. I've not found any. Do you use one of those?

  2. I was shocked to see a post having something to do with DC metro - then I realized it was David blogging.

  3. Still waiting for the 'oil bubble' to burst...?

    Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200

    There's nothing like quantification, metrics, and fundamentals to illustrate why oil prices are where they are... and why they're headed upward.

  4. hahaha....too funny.

    Here's a prediction:

    Oil at $100 per barrel by year's end.

    Financial Bubbles.

    Learn it. Love it. Live it.

  5. I actually use to live on this street.

    Wonder why this is a short sale? The mortgage is for 100% of the purchase price $459,000 at 8.59%. The reset date is September 1, 2008 and it is at six month Libor plus 5.49% but here is the kicker the rate can never be less than 8.49% or greater than 15.49%. Six month Libor is currently 3.17%.

  6. Actually this house is on the wrong side of Montgomery County, houses in the Rockville, Bethesda, Chevy Chase, and Potomac area are holding up much better.

  7. Yeah, Chinese and Indian demand for oil has NO BEARING on the price of a gallon at my local filling station. None. Its all just a bubble.

  8. Demand for oil has not changed since last year when it was below $100 a barrel.

    In fact, demand has gone down. And, supply has not decreased.

    12-year-olds must be posting here.

    Same fools that claim suburbs will be wastelands.

  9. "In fact, demand has gone down. And, supply has not decreased. "

    Care to cite a source?

    Here is a citation directly from OPEC:

    "OPEC expects world oil demand to rise by some 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter from a seasonal second quarter low, as consumption growth hits a seven-year high, the cartel said Thursday."

    Do you know what "OPEC" stand for?

  10. "expects" is the same as "hopes"

  11. "Global supply uncertainties, combined with significant demand growth in China, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to continue to pressure oil markets. WTI prices, which averaged $72 per barrel in 2007, are projected to average $127 per barrel in 2008 and $133 per barrel in 2009."

    "World oil consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is projected to grow by almost 900,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008 and by an additional 1.4 million bbl/d in 2009, while U.S. consumption is expected to decline by about 400,000 bbl/d in 2008. Adjusting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 530,000 bbl/d in 2008."

    'The oil market remains tight, evidenced by rising prices, low surplus production capacity, and the concern that global supply growth may not keep pace with demand growth over the near term. Preliminary estimates indicate that higher oil consumption in the second quarter and a modest increase in production left Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commercial inventories below the 5-year average at the end of June.

    Saudi plans to raise production from 9.4 million bbl/d in June to 9.7 million bbl/d in July, a 27-year high for the nation, have not resulted in an easing of prices. Supply losses in Nigeria and heightened tensions between Iran and Israel raised new concerns about future supplies. Moreover, while the Saudi action adds supplies to the market, remaining available surplus production capacity during the third quarter is at the low level of about 1.2 million bbl/d, all concentrated in Saudi Arabia. "

    Good luck.

  12. Non-OPEC Supply. The pace of supply growth in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is another key determinant of future market conditions. Despite higher prices and recent past projections of substantial growth in non-OPEC supplies that matched or exceeded consumption growth, actual non-OPEC production fell far short of both expectations and consumption growth. Faster declines in older fields and delays in expansion projects have limited supply growth. At the beginning of this year, non-OPEC supply growth was projected to rise by 860,000 bbl/d in 2008 and by over 1.5 million bbl/d in 2009. Production is now expected to rise by only 230,000 bbl/d in 2008 and by 830,000 bbl/d in 2009. Lower-than-expected production from Russia and the North Sea, along with lowered expectations for Brazil, are the principal reasons for lower non-OPEC supply levels. Second-half 2008 non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by about 700,000 bbl/d, driven by growth in Brazil and Azerbaijan (Non-OPEC Oil Production Growth). Given recent history, possible additional delays in key projects as well as accelerating production declines in some older fields cannot be ruled out. As a result, net non-OPEC production gains could be less than the current forecast, leading to both higher demand for OPEC oil and higher prices than currently projected.

  13. "World Energy Consumption By Region, 1990-2030"

    Take a good look at China's oil consumption growth. Then say again "demand is not increasing" with a straight face.

  14. Actually this house is on the wrong side of Montgomery County, houses in the Rockville, Bethesda, Chevy Chase, and Potomac area are holding up much better.

    Actually, they're not. Chevy Chase, Bethesda and Potomac are still holding up okay (Alt-A resets that mainly affect these neighborhoods won't start in large numbers for another year), but everything from North Bethesda on out is sinking like a stone. Twinbrook, which less than a year ago had nothing for less than $300,000, now has 31 properties for sale under that amount. Most of the properties on the market seem to be short sales and foreclosures.

    Here's an example pulled from that zip: MLS #: MC6791909 Currently for sale at $299,000, last sale 3/27/07 for $385,000.

    Here's another: MLS #: MC6705347
    Currently for sale for $289,900, last sale 11/08/05 for $412,000.

    Frankly, I never expected prices to decline so suddenly and steeply in these metro-close neighborhoods.

  15. Wow, citing EIA?

    Are you actually plugged in and knowledgable about this stuff, or do you just like to Google?

    EIA predicted gasoline will be (annual outlook) $2.28 - (sensitivity analysis)$3.13 - per gallon in 2016.

    Are they right or wrong about that?



    Oil - production:
    3.73 million bbl/day (2007 est.)

    Oil - consumption:
    6.93 million bbl/day (2007 est.)

    Oil - exports:
    79,060 bbl/day (2007)

    Oil - imports:
    3.19 million bbl/day (2007)

    Oil - proved reserves:
    12.8 billion bbl (2007 est.)


    Saudi Arabia

    Oil - production:
    11 million bbl/day (2007 est.)

    Oil - consumption:
    2 million bbl/day (2005)

    Oil - exports:
    8.9 million bbl/day (2007 est.)

    Oil - imports:
    0 bbl/day (2004)

    Oil - proved reserves:
    264.3 billion bbl (2007 est.)

  18. United States

    Oil - production:
    8.322 million bbl/day (2005 est.)

    Oil - consumption:
    20.8 million bbl/day (2005 est.)

    Oil - exports:
    1.048 million bbl/day (2004)

    Oil - imports:
    13.15 million bbl/day (2004)

    Oil - proved reserves:
    21.76 billion bbl (1 January 2006 est.)

  19. Chinese News Agency Report

    24 July 2008

    Industry group: China oil use soars in 1Q despite high world prices

    BEIJING, July 24 (Xinhua) -- Soaring world prices don't seem to have crimped China's oil use, with statistics released on Thursday by an industry group indicating that first-half consumption of oil and refined oil products set records.

    The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA) said that "apparent consumption" of refined products -- gasoline, diesel and kerosene -- rose 14.6 percent year-on-year to 106 million tonnes, while crude oil use rose 6.3 percent to 183.3 million tonnes.

    "Apparent consumption" represents the sum of net imports and output, according to the group, and can be used as a proxy for real consumption excluding inventory.

    Apparent consumption of gasoline rose 16.2 percent, that of diesel 14.7 percent and kerosene, 6.66 percent, according to the CPCIA.

    The expanding economy, booming auto demand and reconstruction after the severe winter weather in southern China and the May 12 earthquake were the major causes of growing consumption in the first half, said Zhu Fang, a CPCIA researcher.

    Gross domestic product expanded 10.4 percent in the first half,1.8 percentage points below a year earlier but still a rapid pace.

    The association's figures indicated that state price controls have led to unintended and even negative consequences.

    For example, the state price ceilings caused an "abnormal" consumption rise through hoarding and smuggling abroad of refined products, said Zhu.

    Below-cost prices did not restrain China's demand for oil but rather boosted it, said Niu Li, a researcher of the State Information Center, a government think tank.

    According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of domestic cars increased 18.52 percent to 5.18 million units during the first six months, a high rate by global standards with markets in Europe, Japan and the United States hit by rising gasoline prices.

    Below-cost fuel prices led to a low utilization rate at refineries and the ensuing supply shortage in most parts of the country boosted China's imports of refined oil products.

    According to the CPCIA, net imports of oil products (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) stood at 4.3 million tonnes in the first half, up sharply from 2.8 million tonnes a year earlier.

    Gasoline imports surged more than 3,000 percent and those of diesel rose 1,143 percent. Net crude oil imports stood at 88.97 million tonnes, up 11.6 percent. The trade deficit from oil and oil products doubled from a year earlier to 68.35 billion U.S. dollars.

    To reverse the trend, China raised benchmark gasoline and diesel oil retail prices by 1,000 yuan (146.6 U.S. dollars) per tonne on June 20, with the price of aviation kerosene up 1,500 yuan per tonne.

    The price rise, although insufficient by international standards, has restrained demand and thus relieved the country's supply problems, to some extent, said Zhu.

  20. China, India, China, India....yawn.

    Again, 12-year-olds hooked on CNN.

    Try actually learning about this stuff.

    That is all.

  21. Try learning the definition of the word "learning".

  22. f350 dude, don't you know that chinese commerce has absolutely no bearing on the us economy? it doesn't affect our mortgage industry, it doesn't affect our currency value, it doesn't affect our health, and it certainly would never affect the price of a barrel of oil.

  23. There are a lot of foreclosures in Montgomery today. Sarah is right. Once you get North of the Beltway, you start hitting very hard foreclosures, right across into the Western parts of the county.

    North of the Beltway in MoCo, of course, means you are still potentially in places with very easy metro access.


  24. Latest DC stats from Volume is down, prices are up.

    2008 2007 % Change
    Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 314,079,984 $ 369,692,521 - 15.04 %
    Average Sold Price: $ 571,055 $ 540,486 5.66 %
    Median Sold Price: $ 425,000 $ 415,000 2.41 %
    Total Units Sold: 550 684 - 19.59 %
    Detach/Attach Average Sold: $ 974,178 | $ 549,724 $ 934,253 | $ 527,344 4.27 % | 4.24 %
    Average Days on Market: 74 63 17.46 %
    Average List Price for Solds: $ 602,328 $ 557,271 8.09 %
    Avg Sale Price as a
    percentage of Avg List Price: 94.81 % 96.99 %

  25. In response to the person who asked about getting lists of distressed properties, I am a realtor/broker located in Silver Spring, MD. I provide free current lists of properties that are offered as a shortsale/foreclosure as well as bank owned (REO) properties. On the other side of the coin, I also offer quick sale options to those that are in financial distress. Finally, I offer free quality tenants to those that want to rent their house. In my opinion, the housing crisis is not going to turn around as quickly as many newspapers claim. This is a cyclical business. Anyone remember just before the area started a significant decline when a front page article in the Washington Post indicated that this area was immune to a downturn because the huge federal government is housed here (therefore this area would always have a healthy economy and virtual joblessness)???

    Ronnie Baras, LLC
    Realtor/Broker - Equal Housing Opportunity