Thursday, March 26, 2009

Roubini: Further 20% decline in home prices

NYU economist Nouriel Roubini predicts a 20% decline in home prices over the next year-and-a-half:
With “deflationary forces” lingering for as long as three years, Roubini said U.S. government bond yields were going to remain relatively low and that American house prices would fall as much as 20 percent more in the next 18 months. While the dollar will benefit as investors seek safe havens, it will ultimately decline as the U.S. trade deficit has to shrink, he said.

The need for governments to issue more public debt to fund stimulus and bank-rescue packages risked more downgrades to sovereign debt and the failure of more government auctions as happened in the U.K. yesterday, Roubini said.


  1. If I recall correctly, Roubini was telling Obama he needed to spend even more, now he's cautioning it? And the dollar will benefit from massive debt and the potential for a global currency? Maybe it's me, but I don't get it.

  2. Roubini is getting to be a bit like Shiller who called "bottom in2009" back in January and then said "No bottom for a while" in March.

    I think what happens is after the bust, we go back and see who was saying what before the bust and anoint them all knowing gods (cuz they got it right).

    Then, once the pressure to perform in the future is on, we see they really arent that different from the rest. Apparently no one has a crystal ball.

  3. This is what he really looks like.

  4. "This is what he really looks like."

    Yikes!!! James - you should do him a favor and put your pic of him up on wikipedia.

  5. >Apparently no one has a crystal ball.

    So true.

  6. "glower" and "furrow" were the first 2 words that came to mind.