Monday, June 08, 2009

Recession expected to end by Q4 2009

Based on the "US Economic Growth by Quarter" bets at, here are the probabilities that real GDP growth will be positive in a given quarter. It looks like people are expecting the recession to be over by the fourth quarter of this year, give or take a quarter.


  1. Quite some time to go but reassuring anyway!
    Incidentally there is an interesting website that is specifically dedicated to recession victims.It offers help and discusses all issues related to recession- It’s worth a visit!

  2. keep dreaming !

  3. Anonymous said...
    "keep dreaming !"

    If you think the odds are wildly off the mark, there's money to be made at

  4. Linked to this post this evening, great find!

  5. That's a bit unrealistic, isn't it?

  6. Elisa said...
    "That's a bit unrealistic, isn't it?"

    If you think the odds are wildly off the mark, there's money to be made at The graph reflects the opinions of people who are putting their money where their mouths are.

  7. Thanks for the interest.

    As James said if you think a market is mis-priced you have opportunity.

    Very best regards from Dublin

  8. Anonymous CowardJune 09, 2009 5:30 PM

    James - dont expect any of us to put our money where our mouths are. As much as we like to snark and pontificate about our certainty of impending doom, we are a bunch of nobodys who know no more or less than the average dude.

    In the end its just easier for us to snark from the shadows when in reality, we truly are fearful that the downturn may end soon - proving that we are in fact priced out forever.

  9. Instant Screen NameJune 09, 2009 7:43 PM

    Everyone on the internet is an anonymous coward. Lance may have a big mouth, but Ive never seen him. Whats his home address? Where does he work? Whats his social security number? How about his blood type?

    Does he even exist? Maybe he is just James himself fucking around playing jokes.

    You guys need to quit bitching about peoples screen names, it doesnt mean much when you can create 200 of them in less than 5 minutes with a bunch of hotmail accounts.