Thursday, December 03, 2009

ADP: November 2009 job losses

According to the ADP Employment Report, the month over month rate of job losses continued to decline in November. This graph shows the number of job losses in thousands:

Here are ADP's comments on the numbers:
Nonfarm private employment decreased 169,000 from October to November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. ...

November was the eighth consecutive month during which the decline in employment was less than in the previous month. Although overall economic activity is stabilizing, employment usually trails economic activity, so it is likely to decline for at least a few more months.
Keep in mind that we need 100,000-200,000 job gains each month just to keep up with population growth.


  1. Pretty soon the job losses will be at zero, because nobody will be left working to fire.

  2. And yet, here in Northern Virginia, we couldnt even eke out a 5% unemployment rate:


    Northern Virginia's unemployment rate improved in October, although the jobless rate remains well above year-ago levels.

    The Virginia Employment Commission says unemployment in the Northern Virginia region was 4.7 percent in October, down from 4.9 percent in September. A year ago, Northern Virginia's jobless rate was 3.2 percent.

    Northern Virginia remains the healthiest job market in the Commonwealth. Arlington County, Loudoun County, Fairfax County and Alexandria all had jobless rates below 5 percent, compared to the national unemployment rate of 10.2 percent in October.

    Virginia's statewide unemployment rate was 6.3 percent, down from 6.5 percent in September. All ten of Virginia's major metropolitan areas saw unemployment fall in October, the Commission says.

    Virginia's unemployment rate has been steadily declining since June, when it peaked at 7.3 percent.

    Danville has Virginia's highest unemployment rate at 11.2 percent.

  3. yeah but unlucky for you NoVa isnt an island country off the coast of the flunking US.

  4. I think that about 92% of workers in NOVA are government employees, contractors, or consultants. In other words, they are doing completely non-productive work and have little danger of losing their jobs.

    And it's even worse than that because their salaries are paid by taxing PRODUCTIVE workers.

    But the stupid hicks in the rest of the country haven't figured out that they are being squeezed to death to support the lifestyle of these unproductive few.

  5. HA - I love living here in the immunozone - under 5% unemployment - declining since june.

    Remember all those calls last year saying we are not immune? Its true we are not immune. However we are so heaviliy insulated its almost as if the recession did not happen. What a joke...

  6. Well count me as one of the non believers. Until I saw it first hand, I wasnt ready to believe this area could escape the greater wrath of the downturn so unscathed. Clearly I was wrong.

    Really, this whole thing has been a learning experience for me. I remember last year when we had the legion of doom, Neil, Terminator X, Leroy, John Fountain, etc. all predicting the -40% downfall of Arlington. I used to side with them believing that its not "different" anywhere. Clearly we were all wrong.

    I just cant believe how this thing has gotten away from us. A ways back it looked like all the chips were going to fall our way. Then suddenly, the closer in areas started to improve. Then the govt stepped in and started proping up the market and now you have massive pretty much impenitrable resistance to any further major declines.

    Sadly, this last year has beaten the life out of me. I have lost the will to snark, and my patience with this. Very soon, I too will join the growing ranks of buyers who bend over and take what this market is giving us.

    Honestly, it really wasnt supposed to work out this way.

  7. "completely non-productive work"

    Like trying to save your sorry ass from terrorists, maintaining the infrastructure of the country, and managing the myriad programs to help make your life better, as opposed to producing widgets that no one even needs. And last I checked, they all get taxed, too. Get a life, or at least a brain.

  8. Ooooh, I guess Anon 6:56 is suckling at the government teat. Saving us all from the Bogey Man, no doubt.

  9. "Neil, Terminator X, Leroy, John Fountain, etc. all predicting the -40% downfall of Arlington. I used to side with them believing that its not "different" anywhere. Clearly we were all wrong."

    Amazingly of them all, Leroy is still in denial and spinning his yarns.

    "I did not of course make any such prediction of 50% off in Arlington. "

    "a potential buyer might be looking at two houses, one 10 minutes from work and another 15 minutes from work. These two houses are not perfectly interchangeable, and yet people are still able to compare and value them."

    Try 10 minutes from work compared to 2 hours. Sheesh.

  10. "Try 10 minutes from work compared to 2 hours. Sheesh."

    I work as a researcher in Rockville and live in Rockville. My commute is less than 5 minutes. My wife however works in Herndon VA! Her commute isnt anywhere near 2 hours and you cant get much further apart and still be considered the "DC Metro area."

  11. Try Winchester or Front Royal to Federal Triangle.