Monday, March 01, 2010

Home prices predicted to fall this summer

Fiserv and Moody's expect home prices to fall this summer:
Despite signs that the real estate market might be lurching forward, prices are expected to fall further this year and next.

The average home price in the United States will fall by about 6% by September 2011, according to a joint report between Fiserv and Moody's And that's after plunging more than 27% in the past three years.

Most of the projected home price decline will occur during the usually slow summer months of 2010. After that, prices should begin to stabilize, according to Fiserv, and stay almost flat through fall of 2011.

The main reason for continued decline, according to Mark Zandi, economist and co-founder of, is foreclosures — the same thing that's plagued markets for the past three years.
Most predictions fall wide of the mark, so I don't place much faith in them. However, it's still interesting to hear what independent analysts expect.


  1. Most analysts aren't trained in street smarts, so they aren't skilled in everyday reality. This market requires thinking on your feet. The people who are making money are not following the news media, blog advice, or the rules of the game as it is normally played.

    We all know the RE market is about to dump. It's all about the exact timing now.

    Others people's losses are another's gain. Never forget this. If the stuff you read isn't thinking in these terms and giving solid direction, why the hell are you still reading it?

  2. "Others people's losses are another's gain."

    I smell an infestor!

  3. Interesting article:

    (Subprimes weren't the cause of the recession ...)

  4. No price declines here in DC. This place is immune from anything!!!! You are really special when you own a home in DC.

  5. Perhaps it is tougher than they thought to characterize a national market with so many moving parts.

  6. Hey Lance, have you noticed that prices are again rising in your zip? Mris 4Q stats confirm the same. And to think, its just a few ticks off from the all time peak price.

    I wonder if Leroy sees this? I wonder if he will occasionally pull out an old report and get angry seeing how your place really was immune? Do you think it enrages him? Makes him angry that you are sitting there A-OK in your home while the rest of the market tanked? I hope so.

    Why oh why did he refuse to admit it was different there? Why oh why did he keep looking at the same statistics the rest of us did and keep thinking a cataclysm was going to hit...any day now...

    Either way, good for you. Im glad to see you bought in one of the immunozones where there never really was a bad time to buy.

  7. Uh, no. Longtime homeowner in NW DC here.

    Tax assessments throughout the entire city are down because property values have dipped across the board in DC.

    The reduced tax assessments will be used during future home sale negotiations, and that will continue to keep downward pressure on DC prices.

    Reality: Best to not get emotional about it.

  8. be back in 6 monthsMarch 02, 2010 4:52 PM

    I love the deflections of the posts that just present the simple fact of "home prices to continue falling"

    To be honest with you "immune" buyers, I don't care what the cause of the recession is, nor do I care if homes didn't drop on your particular block....I don't even live in DC and know nothing about economics.

    However, I do find it humorous how insecure you guys are about your life and choices though. It makes this blog good for reading, the deflection reply posts more so than the actual blog authors posts. I just wanted to say thanks! Keep up the inane banter and insecurities!

  9. HAHAHAH, My obvious trolling got one! I knew if I posted MRIS facts someone would angrily respond to my choice flame bait!

  10. James, I believe it is time to start restricting access to this blog by screening morons like the one immediately above. Seriously, this blog provided some real intellectual insight at one time.

  11. "James, I believe it is time to start restricting access to this blog by screening morons like the one immediately above."

    Ironic post given it is coming from someone as cowardly as I am who doesnt have a screen name...

  12. And the main gist of my post, for those of you who weren't on this blog some 4 - 5 years ago is that the whole premise of 'the Bubble' was that it was the subprime mortgages that were going to cause a recession. I at the time argued that I couldn't see how these were significant enough to make a difference. And posters (such as Leroy) argued that they made up a larger portion of the market than I believed they did. And then when the recession hit, they claimed that that was proof that the subprimes were indeed at the root of the problem. I'm glad to see experts vindicating my belief that they couldn't be significant enough to make a difference.

  13. *the whole premise of 'the Bubble' as argued by many on this blog back then ...