Monday, July 19, 2010

Lost decade ahead? Lost decade behind!

CNN Money warns that the U.S. could experience an economic "lost decade" over the next ten years:
The risk of a double-dip recession is getting a lot of attention, but even that grim prediction could prove a little too optimistic.

Disappointing job reports, weakness in housing and consumer spending and problems in world financial markets have raised concerns about the U.S. economy stalling out later this year. Now some economists are starting to talk about an even worse fate: a prolonged period of very weak growth, a so-called "lost decade." ...

A lost decade, or something like it, could feel like a never-ending recession to many Americans, as the economy does not grow fast enough to recoup lost jobs, and investments like homes and stocks continue to lose value.
What CNN Money seems to overlook is that, in a sense, we've already experienced a lost decade over the past ten years. Take a look at the aggregate weekly hours worked over the past decade:

Or look at total nonfarm payrolls over the past decade:

Or look at the S&P 500 over the past decade:


  1. Great post that really captures a huge disconnect in people's minds.

  2. Excellent point. Thanks for taking a long term perspective.

  3. Hope this financial crisis finish asap, but double-dip recession is more likely to be happened.