Learning Greenspeak. This was posted by an anonymous commentator on The Housing Bubble Blog
"Whether home prices on average for the nation as a whole are overvalued relative to underlying determinants is difficult to ascertain. Among other indicators, the significant rise in purchases of homes for investment since 2001 seems to have charged some regional markets with speculative fervor.
We certainly cannot rule out declines in home prices, especially in some local markets. If declines were to occur, they likely would be accompanied by some economic stress, though the macroeconomic implications need not be substantial."
The anonymous poster comments: " You must admire his language. We must all learn Greenspeak. " Later on in the comments section green eggs and spam said...
Greenspan always shellacs his language with carefully worded conditionals and disclaimers... and then softens and rosies it up so as not to be blamed for inciting any panic-based movement.
Therefore, when he goes on record with this kind of bearish warning, you can bet that he privately sees the situation as much more problematic.
Thanks for you outstanding input. Exactly. Well said.
Posts
fervor: N. 1. Intense heat 2. Great warmth of emotion
ReplyDeleteThis is not a lukewarm sort of word and both definitions are very accurate in this instance.
Many housing markets are very heated or overheating.
People on both sides of the money stand to lose a great deal when regional bubble markets start going down. Bubble discussion creates heated conversations.
He's chosen an interesting word. Fervor is something you either have or don't have. It's there, or it isn't.
No matter how he tries to soften what he's saying and couch it in conditional phrases, fervor isn't a word that can be nicely and neatly covered up with a "seems to have."
"Economic stress?"
I won't even go there... Hahaha
Housing is indeed stil hot, and the overheating has yet to cool. The larger this thing becomes- the bigger the disaster will be. Frankly I think AG is either smoking pot, drinks or is so far above in the clouds he has lost all touch with reality.
ReplyDeleteI still do not understand how AG can casually pooh pooh the incredible amount od speculation going on- this exceeds the IT/Tech bubble in sheer numbers and people becoming sucked in to this bloated monster. Oh sure I understand he has to be careful not to cause panic- but truly this is reaching a magnitude as big as the 1920's speculation in its gross risks and ramifications.
ReplyDeleteHousing in central Connecticut up 15% this year alone (Jan-July)
ReplyDeleteThe bubble is spreading from the large metro areas to the medium sized ones- the cancer is leap frogging. As David Rosenberg of ML said yesterday, there are accellerating prices and bubbles in California and the northeast, I would include Florida, AZ and some other pockets as he alluded to.
Actually Greenspan is probably sweating bullets- he is carefully wording his concerns- and is hoping for the best- but there is a good chance this thing will end in tears.
ReplyDelete"but there is a good chance this thing will end in tears."
ReplyDeleteIt will end in tears for some. Hopefully, the tears won't be so widespread.
HA HA, I posted the first comment.
ReplyDeleteThe possible scary thing is that it appears that I am talking like him already.
... I need not rule out the possibility of becoming a lawyer or even a central banker in the long run. ;)
ReplyDelete