Sunday, June 10, 2007

Capitol Hill Neighborhood, Washington, DC

42 comments:

  1. Anyone else notice the MRIS statistics are out for May?

    A few highlights... pretty much the whole area is now showing price drops including close in areas like Alexandria city.

    Oh yeah, and Lance's neighborhood in 20009 is showing a nice 6.25% decline in median sale prices. (-13.4% average)

    So much for the "new paradigm" and "average rowhouses" doubling in price in the last 12 months.

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  2. But anon 6:17pm, you are using the statistics wrong... Sarcasm off.

    So lance, how can you possibly rebute this stat?

    On another note. Realtor agents are right on one thing. Real estate markets are local. I will add.... "Until they are not". Is anyone else concerned that we may have just seen a national runup by people who bought into a wanna be rich ponzi scheme? I always believed that dc, la, fl, nv, and other big cities were bubbles but, I never thought it was national. Every city with rare exceptions are taking a pounding. I mean even Buffalo is down a few percent. Scary.
    the real bob

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  3. Knight Kiplinger; another shill?

    Check out page 3 of today's wapo business section. Looks like regional job growth to slow from torrid to amazing. Tops in the Country for large metro regions.

    I can't take all this doom and gloom.

    got popcorn?

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  4. Inventory down 18.5% year over year:

    http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/DC/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/

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  5. "So lance, how can you possibly rebute this stat?"

    I just learned a new word. If you both rebut and argument and refute it at the same time, you rebute it. ;-)

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  6. I can't take all this doom and gloom.

    I can't speak for everyone, but I personally consider the "doom and gloom" talk to be talk of housing remaining at their current catastrophically unaffordable levels. I certainly don't wish for distress for the economy as a whole. But I also don't wish for continued distress for people shut out of housing by this horrible housing bubble. I think that most people who post here would agree. I know that there are a few exceptions (who make a disproportionately large number of the posts). But I think that we in general simply want houses to be at the prices that they should be at -- which, in my estimation, requires an approximately 30% (real) drop from their current levels -- as quickly as possible.

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  7. What an UGLY-looking hood. Well maybe a bit better than ugly. I honesly thought Hill was nicer.

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  8. Hi David,

    I am also a huge Monty Python fan!!! This is a very useful blog you have here, great discussions, and in real estate it’s important to keep up to speed! If any agents or brokers are looking to improve your web presence, please send me an email with the best daytime phone number for you, and a suggested time for me to give you a call. Within an hour of our conversation you can have a fully pro web presence including everything you need for marketing your listings and your business.

    Take care,

    Joe Trainor, RealtySoft.com Inc.
    Joe.trainor@realtysoft.com

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  9. "Inventory down 18.5% year over year"

    That's strange. Inventory has been shifting between 500 and 1000 units each month, and then all of a sudden an 8,000 unit change? I know the prices didn't suddenly change by 800%, so how do you explain this, anonymous?

    Just another sign of a happy, healthy housing economy, huh?

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  10. This picture gives me a jonesin for the rock.

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  11. Anonymous said...
    Inventory down 18.5% year over year:

    http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/DC/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/


    Don't forget that sales are also down anywhere from 10% in close in areas to 30-50% in areas like PWC. Inventory represents supply, but sales represent demand, and both contribute to transaction prices.

    Having said that, inventory does seem to have fallen a bit from historical levels a year ago, and it is the most forward looking indicator. Perhaps there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Although demand will likely continue to be impacted as interest rates rise and unconventional mortgage use continues to decline.

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  12. Anonymous said...
    What an UGLY-looking hood. Well maybe a bit better than ugly. I honesly thought Hill was nicer.


    Not as ugly as miles of white, vinyl sided mcmansions.

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  13. Just like anything else...

    it's all a matter of perspective.

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  14. Wanna see fear? Check out the home owners that paid $300K+.

    http://www.winknews.com/news/local/7896352.html?video=YHI&t=a

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  15. I personally consider the "doom and gloom" talk to be talk of housing remaining at their current catastrophically unaffordable levels.
    Well said _K. People deserve a reasonable level of housing for their wages.

    To think, most of the price declines in housing comes at the end of the price declines which are invariably in the October-February time frame. This is June...

    And all the investment banks predict the 2008 drop will be 1X to 2X 2007's levels...

    I am impressed with jobs...

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  16. "Well said _K. People deserve a reasonable level of housing for their wages. "

    So rent and stop wishing ill on other people.

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  17. Re: Housingtracker.net says inventory has suddenly plummeted 18.5% YOY. Something does not seem right here.

    I pulled the MRIS stats for DC, Alexandria, and Arlington for May.

    In DC, 691 units sold and 1,341 new listings were added (net gain of 650). In Arlington, 307 units sold and 553 new listings were added (net gain 246). In Alexandria, 205 units sold and 413 units were added (net gain 208). How does this result in an inventory drop? Either (1) Housingtracker's stats are wildly off, or (2) droves of sellers pulled their properties from the market.

    Perhaps both. The spring selling season was such a bust, sellers may actually be listening to NAR and believing that prices will miraculously rebound this fall (even though this is what they said about a spring bounce that never materialized--once bitten twice stupid).

    Who knows what this could do to the market. It may stabilize prices short term, but it could also mean that the backlog of inventory is greater than the numbers suggest, as many of these sellers may relist these properties in the fall once summer vacations are over, which could cause inventory to skyrocket. And if interest rates have risen to over 7% . . .

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  18. Can we there be a ban on the use of the "got popcorn?" cliche?

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  19. anonymous like youJune 13, 2007 12:35 PM

    Maybe.

    Got cliche?

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  20. Can we there be a ban on the use of the "got popcorn?" cliche?

    That is my tagline. ;) So... No. :)

    You might want to get a username too...

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  21. I love it - the numbers look very very bad for caveat empetor, so he pretends they're not true.

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  22. " Can we there be a ban on the use of the "got popcorn?" cliche?

    That is my tagline. ;) So... No. :)

    You might want to get a username too..."


    It's really annoying and not at all clever.

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  23. the 3 story building in the bottom right corner was my first apartment when I moved to Washington years and years ago. I paid $545 a month which included all utilities and I thought it was an outragous amount.

    Nice to see it's still there.

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  24. Hmm, in photo's zip code, median price is up 7.58% YOY and active listings are down 16.78% YOY.

    Katherine

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  25. Annon 1:25:
    Do you have anything to contribute other than taking imbecilic glee in your own intellectual dishonesty?
    I didn't "pretend" that the numbers were "not true." I suggested that a statistical spike, when looked at in the context of other empirical data, may not be telling the whole story, may be incorrect, or both. If you can't get your head around that concept, or provide some information that would contradict my admitted speculation, perhaps you should stick to chat rooms discussing the finer details of Paris' jail ordeal.
    I do find it personally amusing that people will pick and choose their stats whenever it suits their purpose. Housingtracker also says that median asking prices are down 8.4%, and MRIS says that selling prices are about 8-10% below asking prices. If this is all true, suddenly inventory is irrelevant to prices, which contradicts the unstated premise of the argument: that an 18.5% increase in inventory is relevant, or "looks bad for caveat emptor." If prices fall while inventory falls, the market is in bigger trouble than anyone has predicted, because it shows that the NAR mantra--that prices will rebound when inventory decreases--is simply horseshit, or an over simplistic extrapolation of the concept of supply and demand.

    I'm not trying to win any arguments here. I keep coming back to this site in hopes that I will find some data, or at least a well reasoned argument, that shows any indication that it makes sense to buy right now, but, alas, all I have found is intellectual and empirical poverty from those trying to "pretend" that they did not make a colossal financial mistake by purchasing at the height of the largest real estate bubble in history, because they had no real idea what they were doing.

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  26. Caveat said:
    "I'm not trying to win any arguments here. I keep coming back to this site in hopes that I will find some data, or at least a well reasoned argument, that shows any indication that it makes sense to buy right now, but, alas, all I have found is intellectual and empirical poverty from those trying to "pretend" that they did not make a colossal financial mistake by purchasing at the height of the largest real estate bubble in history, because they had no real idea what they were doing."

    Interesting ... The facts don't support your conclusion so suddenly it must be that they " may not be telling the whole story, may be incorrect, or both.

    And you think you are the one with any real idea of what they are doing?

    David, you really need to end the misery of your followers. Like the good emperor of Japan did after getting hit by 2 atom bombs, you too need to concede you were very wrong and free your followers from further self-inflicted damage. They'll go down with the ship 'cause that's the kind of sheeple they are ...

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  27. "intellectual and empirical poverty "

    Oh hail Professor Caveat Empetor, our superior!

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  28. dc condo prices seem pretty flat year over year, month over month


    http://dcbubble.blogspot.com/2007/06/may-2007-market-for-dc-condos-single.html

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  29. Lance,

    I did not have a conclusion. I had a reasoned speculation based on data, and I dared anyone to contradict it, which appears to exceed the acumen of you and anyone else so far.

    How do you explain the fact that the reported decrease in inventory does not match the reported number of sales? Properties were taken off of the market without being sold. Are prices rising so fast that sellers cannot, in good conscience, keep their properties on the market and accept such outrageous sums?

    Annon:

    Thanks for proving my point. Now hurry off. The chat rooms are waiting.

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  30. Lance said...
    “Interesting ... The facts don't support your conclusion so suddenly it must be that they " may not be telling the whole story, may be incorrect, or both.

    And you think you are the one with any real idea of what they are doing?

    David, you really need to end the misery of your followers. Like the good emperor of Japan did after getting hit by 2 atom bombs, you too need to concede you were very wrong and free your followers from further self-inflicted damage. They'll go down with the ship 'cause that's the kind of sheeple they are ...”

    Well if it’s not “Lance” penning a diatribe regarding “facts”. What “facts” are you referring to “Lance”? Since you have yet to post any, I find it hard to believe you are now willing to squabble over them.

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  31. "Oh hail Professor Caveat Empetor, our superior! "

    Certainly your superior from the look of things...

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  32. "Well if it’s not “Lance” penning a diatribe regarding “facts”. What “facts” are you referring to “Lance”? Since you have yet to post any, I find it hard to believe you are now willing to squabble over them. "

    The "facts" are that average rowhouses in lance's neighborhood(20009) have gone from $1 million to $2 million in the last 12 months, despite the fact that the sales data shows large median and average price declines YoY. Since bidding wars returned in May the prices are really going to shoot through the roof!


    Don't spend too much time worrying about lance. His posting have become less and less frequent and more and more angry by the month.

    Even he will eventually realize that he looks like a fool and will stop posting completely just like VA_Investor did. His whole "persona" on this board is based around trying to pretend he has a clue what he is talking about and now that basically every single prediction he has made has been proven wrong... he has resorted to just being nasty. Soon he will give it up and run away, probably telling himself the whole time he was "right."

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  33. "
    Thanks for proving my point. Now hurry off. The chat rooms are waiting. "

    caveat - I'm picturing a fake English accent. Am I right?

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  34. /fake English accent on/

    I am not entirely sure how one pictures, rather than hears, a fake English accent.

    /fake English accent off/

    Wrong again anon. But how is Paris doing?

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  35. I think that is the 6th and Independence Block in SE at the bottom of the picture. While from the bird's eye view it ain't much - if you spent a lazy saturday there you would find it is pretty nice.

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  36. Real Estate goes up and down in 5-7 year cycles, but over the long haul, will appreciate. The month-to-month stats are worthless. Buying a house should be for shelter; and it often serves as a quasi-forced investment tool.

    Bottom line: If you are happy with your house, and happy with your payment -- don't worry about too much else.

    If you aren't gonna be there in less than 5 years, you probably should be renting.

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  37. Anonymous said...
    "Real Estate goes up and down in 5-7 year cycles, but over the long haul, will appreciate. The month-to-month stats are worthless. Buying a house should be for shelter; and it often serves as a quasi-forced investment tool.

    Bottom line: If you are happy with your house, and happy with your payment -- don't worry about too much else.

    If you aren't gonna be there in less than 5 years, you probably should be renting."

    Amen! The problem here though with most of these BHs is that they are unable to buy due to either financial or emotional reasons. ("Emotional" as in "I can't make a real commitment in life".) This blogs allows them to pat each other on the back and justify the otherwise unjustifiable. Note that there is also a large undercurrent of folks who are wannabe flippers/investors and have confused the issue of homeownership with financial investment. Luckily, they aren't in a financial position to do themselves much harm in their state of confusion.

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  38. "Amen! The problem here though with most of these BHs is that they are unable to buy due to either financial or emotional reasons."

    Uh huh... whereas you "bought" a house using an IO loan...

    You are a lot like people I know at work that are proud of the luxury cars they lease...

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  39. Lance said...
    “Amen! The problem here though with most of these BHs is that they are unable to buy due to either financial or emotional reasons…… Note that there is also a large undercurrent of folks who are wannabe flippers/investors and have confused the issue of homeownership with financial investment…..”

    The problem here is that “Lance” has yet, perhaps for emotional reasons, to post any facts and due to financial reasons, rents out his basement to help make mortgage payments. Note the undercurrent of confusing debt for wealth.

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  40. I provoked the "AMEN" from Lance. Don't hate me for it. I don't follow this blog all that closely.

    I rent out my basement too. Not to help make my mortgage payments, but just for play money b/c it is a part of the house we didn't use that often.

    I mean, does anyone want to turn away $1200 in passive gain? Ie -- I don't have to work longer hours to make that money. I don't really have to do anything, except own the house (and some minimal property management). The ownership of property (land and chattel) is for better or worse, what makes America what it is. Ownership of property only exist with an adequate gov't to enforce the bundle of rights that comes with ownership. To rent out my basement, I don't have to be brilliant, come up with a great invention, or slave away at the office. I merely have to buy something that is valuable.... And someone else pays me to use that valuable commodity, merely b/c I own it. It is simple talentless wealth.

    Unlike diamonds or gold (other types of valuable property), shelter from the elements (w/ sarcasm: ON "granite, hardwoods, near shopping, and nightlife" sacrasm:OFF) will always be something in demand; thus, always valuable. It ain't rocket science. In fact, I think real estate pays better than rocket science. It ain't sexy, that is for sure. It ain't for everyone.

    For all those renting, that is fine. Different strokes for different folks. But waiting for a huge fallout in the RE market isn't likely. More foreclosures, yes. Some price declines, yes (and that is a good thing, keeps the market healthy). But I don't think the second coming of satan is on the way. And I don't think there will be many poor landlords in the near future....(slight jab: especially with everyone renting waiting for the market to bottom out.) And the market will "bottom out" whenever the media says it does. Just my .02.

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  41. The bubbleheads comments about this neighborhood are very telling. Like their view of home ownership, their perception of Capitol Hill is distorted by the fact that they are looking in and not from within. They can only imagine what's it's really like to be a homeowner - or live in Capitol Hill. And their powers of imagination are obviously skewed ... very skewed.

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  42. Lance said...
    “They can only imagine what's it's really like to be a homeowner…”

    And “Lance”, I guess you can only imagine that prices in your zip are going up. Your powers of imagination are obviously skewed ... very skewed.

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