Sunday, June 10, 2007

David Lereah's Statements Vs. Performance of Housing Stocks

Chart courtesy of Investech Research


  1. I can't wait until Yun is added to the mix.

  2. How about Bubblehead Statements Vs. Performance of Housing Prices? BH Market-Top predictions go back to 2001. Both sides have made ridiculous predictions. " RE always goes up "(long-term, it does) just shows the stupidity of some newbies and the dishonesty of those who make their living off them. " RE will crash "- ignorant crap put out by bitter people who missed the boom; primarily, the "entitlement" generation (X&Y).

    Most of the comments on this board belong to the second group. Their sophmoric rhetoric merely illustrates a lack of knowledge of RE history and cycles.

    How is the NAR any more ridiculous than the extreme BH's?

    Pennies on the dollar, blood in the streets, depression/recession.....pfffft.

  3. Let's add David J. to the mix.

    PEARLS of WISDOM from david j.

    May 2005 - The Bubble Will Burst Soon

    "Behold the bubble is about to pop. The Bubble will pop within the next 12 months"

    June 2005 - When will the Bubble Pop?

    "There are growing indications that there is a slowdown occurring now... By October, the price stagnation in many areas will become price declines."

    June 2005 - Homebuilders Stocks Take a Hit

    "...the bubble is about to burst"

    June 2005 - Growing Signs of a Housing Slowdown.

    "...Look for price declines of up to 50% in certain markets over the course of a few years (inflation adjusted)"

    Does a few years equal 3 yrs? It's already been 2. This coming 12 months should be hellish! 50% off by June 2008????

    July 2005 - A Black Christmas

    "There are signs that the bubble will be in bursting mode this fall...It could be the worst Christmas shopping season in many years."

    That's all for now folks. Notice how every reference David J. makes to Housing includes the words "bubble popping" or "bubble bursting"?. No slow decline or air seeping out as we hear about now.

    How is this any less irresponsible than the NAR?


  4. "How is this any less irresponsible than the NAR?"

    This has to be a joke. No one could be this ignorant.

    Lereah's word has been depended upon by the media as the official gauge of America's housing industry. From what I understand, David J is simply an independent blogger... who doesn't carry that much weight for the average consumer looking to buy a home.

    It's like saying that David was equally as strong as Goliath.

  5. smacktalker,

    The only people "this ignorant" are the morons who can't understand that the NAR are LOBBYISTS. The dues paid by it's members support legislation, studies and statements that advance their agenda - ie selling RE at the highest volume and highest commission rates.

    Intelligent people can, and do, understand this. Get a clue.

  6. Quote: How is this any less irresponsible than the NAR?

    Well, for starters, the NAR doesn't doesn't let you post comments at the bottom of their reports to let you tell them how full of it they are. At least David J. is openly soliciting feedback, including dissenting opinions.

    Quote: The only people "this ignorant" are the morons who can't understand that the NAR are LOBBYISTS.

    Care to explain why Lereah was so heavily quoted as an expert by the media then?

  7. anon 10:37,

    And you believe the Post? Reporters don't research, they report what they are told and attribute the quotes to the sources.

    Why don't you contact the MSM and ask them why NAR is quoted so much. Only sheeple believe everything they read.

    I guess you are not old enough to remember the "I don't believe the Post" bumper stickers.

  8. Now I get it!

    David and other bubbleheads can change their minds and forecasts weekly with impunity.

    This distinguishes BH's from shills.

    It seems that Lereah has been talking about a "soft landing" for almost 2 years; while we await David J.'s "pop, crash, and burst".

    Yes, I think I get it. People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

  9. anon 4:50 PM,

    The "M" in MSM stands for "mainstream," as in what most people listen to. Regardless of what names you want to call them, far more people have taken advice from the MSM (and thus the NAR by proxy) than from David J's blog. Personally, I do not believe the Post and I don't believe you either - you are trolling and don't actually have a legitimate point to make.

  10. M. King Hubbert predicted peak oil production in the U.S. would occur in 1969.
    He was ridiculed for his prediction, that oil pumped out of the ground in the US would begin to decline in 1969 or any year for that matter.
    He missed by only a year.

    David J predicted the beginning of the housing bubble bursting in 2005.
    He too missed it by one year.

    It is easier to get David J to apologize than for David Lereah to apologize.

    For David J, there would be no excuses, no hiding behind bad data, no blaming anybody and everybody else, (especially not his publisher) David J will, if asked politely and courteously, will acknowledge his slight miscalculation in judgement, proving himself to be a man and not a troll.

    As for David Lereah,
    don't hold your breath.

    Was it not David Lie-reah who said that if you have a house paid off you are losing money not putting that equity to work, or something along that line?
    David J didn’t advise anyone to take on more debt than they could handle or afford.

    As for the argument, “Intelligent people can, and do, understand this” overlooks the point that many “intelligent people” were the ones investing in real estate, REITs, home builders, Home Depot and Lowe’s, all part of the housing bubble, directly or indirectly.
    Intelligent people tend to do not very intelligent things when it comes to investing (Dot coms ring a bell?)

    Intelligent people lost money once the ponzi scheme began to fall apart, many, many more intelligent people will lose money because of this in the future.

    Lastly, make up a name for yourself. Hiding behind the title Anonymous tends to make many of us believe you to be a coward, afraid to admit to the world what you really think, evenif it is behind a fictitious name.