At the beginning of 2008 inventory stood at 17,062 or 1.8% higher then the beginning of the year. In 2007, inventory had decreased ever so slightly from 13,104 on January 1st to 13,081 on March 3rd. The inventory continues to increase at faster rater then last year. (VirginiaMLS). With January 2008 sales much weaker then January 2007 sales the spring is shaping up to be another disappointment for those in the real estate industrial complex (REIC). Oh don't forget the current general economic downturn.
Fairfax County, VA: Notice how inventory in Jan 08 is much higher then Jan o7.
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So now is a great time to buy! ;)
ReplyDeleteSeriously, afford ability isn't anywhere close to what it needs to be for a bottom to be declared. In fact, its still worse than previous bubbles. Cest la vie.
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I'm very curious to see February sales/inventory broken down.
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Neil
Its interesting, in most outer counties, inventory keeps going up YOY with no end in sight. By contrast, Arlington (and Alexandria) had what looked like a spike in 2006, followed by a drop in 2007 - suggesting the worst was over for them. Now here we are in early 2008, and once again we are going back up.
ReplyDeleteBH's can crow about the increase all they want - thats fine - here is a serious question though - WHY was it different? WHY did they even have a drop? It doesnt make much sense to me - THOUGHTS???
This is funny: The subprime mortgage crisis explained.
ReplyDeleteThe realtors will always tell you to ignore the assessed values. This approach is ill-advised. When I was a prospective buyer, I recall walking away from properties that were listed at $525K but had just been assessed two months prior at $350. The realtors acted like I was some kind of idiot with unrealistic expectations. State law requires that the local governments assess properties at fair market value, and these entities obviously have a vested interest in doing so to maximize their tax base. So yes, these valuations are reasonable to help gauge the valuation of a property. Ultimately discouraged, I moved away from the metro area entirely and avoided the $3500 mortgage on an otherwise unimpressive home that might rent for $1800.
ReplyDelete"State law requires that the local governments assess properties at fair market value, and these entities obviously have a vested interest in doing so to maximize their tax base."
ReplyDeleteI wouldnt put much stock into this. For starters, some counties are far more agressive in setting a realistic FMV than others. Also, several local jurisdictions in MD are notorious at setting incredibly low tax assessed values (even when considering the 3 year phase in). I can tell you of many occassions where I challenged assessed values on behalf of my clients, and was able to receive sizeable reductions, even though the client and the assessor both knew full well that the assessed value was well below FMV.
In sum, each county is different, and unless you know how agressive or lax each county is (or is not) and whether the prior owner lobbied for (and got) any reduction, tax assessed value cannot tell you much about FMV.