Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Ridiculous: USA Today Names Lawrence Yun as Top Economic Forecaster

The USA Today named Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors as its fifth top economic forecaster.

The National Association of Realtors(R) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR's real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.

I'm honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country," said Yun. "The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position

USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.

Do not trust Lawrence Yun. Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."

The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.

23 comments:

  1. I don't think anyone can 100% predict the future.

    Given that, I'd say Yun has certainly been much more on the mark than have the bubble heads with their predictions of wholescale falling prices across the board everywhere around the country. At least Yun has correctly predicted the varying market conditions throughout the country and the mixed up and down prices resulting from local markets. Additionally, his trend predictions have generally been correct.

    I don't doubt that the bubbleheads see things different. When you fervently believe in something it's easy to blind yourself to the truth. However, when you have a respected paper such as USA Today telling you you are wrong, you should give that serious consideration. It should be a wake up call.

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  2. Question--How many ad dollars does NAR put into USA Today's pocket?

    Hmmmmmmmm.....

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  3. you're going to make his mother cry.

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  4. dude, it's USA Today, what did you expect? the only people who read that idiot-rag are the diet pill models that hold it up in their 'before' photo. it's one big unfunny comics section.

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  5. So far David's predictions for the price drops have been spot on. San Diego is now down 25% from the peak and Yun predicted there would be no drop!

    The few of my coworkers buying are bidding 85 cents on the dollar and entering escrow at 90 cents on the dollar.

    The moves I told you about are on for the summer.

    Or is the lack of buyer interest, expressed via slow sales rates, just my imagination? ;)

    Got Popcorn?
    Neil

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  6. "Or is the lack of buyer interest, expressed via slow sales rates, just my imagination? ;)

    Got Popcorn?
    Neil"

    Yes, it's mostly your imagination. You should come pay a visit to the Washington area. With the exception of the far out burbs and the overbuilding done out there, there isn't a problem. I happened to speak to a realtor who confirmed what I'd observed. There's no problem here. They're even getting back into multiple bids on desireable properties. Do undesireable properties languish? Of course ... Nothing new there.

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  7. Lance - are you kidding me. The guy is a paid spinner - thats it. I am a BH like you and agree with you on alot of issues. However, when I see statements like this from you I question my own judgment (i.e. how can I believe that prices inside the beltway will be OK when it means that I agree with someone who thinks Yun is generally accurate).

    P.S. USA today is certianly not a "respected paper" it caters to the lowest common denominator of US imbeciles who need colorful graphs and fluff pieces in their news). You calling it a respected paper also makes me question where you fall on that sociological spectrum.

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  8. Lance, You are flat out wrong.. My Friend has been a DC realtor for about 10 years and she told me DC is taking a beating.. She said the past few years were good to her but its all over now. She had to sell the Porsche last month.. She mainly does realty in Capitol Hill.

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  9. Why are you guys all against this Lance guy? He speaks the truth. There are no problems with the housing market. I can afford a $500,000 house on $70k a year, why can't the rest of you? Just take out an adjustable ARM like I did (I'm so smart, btw). Like any sensible person knows, the best way to build wealth is by going into extreme upside down debt with no hope of making your mortgage payment when it resets. Geez, what part of that equation do you not get?!

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  10. Douchebag FinderMarch 18, 2008 3:31 PM

    OK,

    I can say without a doubt the 2 biggest douchebags on this thread are:

    1. Lance
    2. Lawrence Yun

    I'm sure conspiracy theories abound in Lance's head, and frankly he filters about 80% of what he reads that does not fit his weltblick, but jeebus, dude, do you need to post 15 times an hour? Only a giant douche would camp out on this blog like you do.

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  11. lance you never fail to entertain.

    i guess DC is "different" but almost every house i look at the price has been reduced by $100K+, many much more than that.

    in case you can't read digits that's one hunded thousand dollars so i saved myself $100K by NOT buying.

    i'm gonna save another $100K and wait until next year to buy

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  12. Lance said...
    “However, when you have a respected paper such as USA Today telling you you are wrong, you should give that serious consideration. It should be a wake up call.”

    You’d think the fall of Bear Stearns would be a wake up call.

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  13. The only reason that the close-in suburbs like Arlington (and possibly DC itself) don't appear to have experienced much of a SFH price decrease is this: delusional sellers whose houses have been unsold for MONTHS (and they are the majority of houses on the market now in Arlington) believe they are going to have a "good spring" so they refuse to reduce prices. Other sellers who didn't have to sell simply took their houses off the market. Once those now on the market eventually sell--if they do-- you're going to see a drop.

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  14. However, when you have a respected paper such as USA Today...

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

    no...really....
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    .HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

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  15. Given that, I'd say Yun has certainly been much more on the mark than have the bubble heads with their predictions of wholescale falling prices across the board everywhere around the country.

    But prices ARE falling everywhere across the country. There are maybe 5 exceptions and 100% of those areas have an obvious downtrend, so it's just a matter of time.

    Who is more on target, the person who is 95% correct, or the person who is 5% correct? You're arguing that it's the latter.

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  16. So, Lance, which flavor of Ramen is your favorite? I figure by now you've tried them all.

    Are you still alternating Chicken Ramen and Beef Ramen on odd- and even-numbered days? Is the Shrimp Ramen only for special occasions?

    Sold any homes lately?

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  17. Anon said:
    "But prices ARE falling everywhere across the country. There are maybe 5 exceptions and 100% of those areas have an obvious downtrend, so it's just a matter of time."

    See what I mean about bubbleheads blinding themselves to the truth?
    (1) buying a home is a longterm commitment meaning you shouldn't even look to see what your neighbors are getting for their homes until you've been in your home at least 5 years ... since, as any person should know, the transaction costs alone mean you're losing money if you're selling prior to 5 years. (Yes, I know, that wasn't the case during the boom years when one could "flip" a home before even moving into it and make a handsome profit. But this was an exceptional period AND these people who were flipping weren't homebuyers but instead investors.)
    (2) A house going down in value by less than 5% (or even 10%) from the highpoint in 2005 isn't "falling in value" ... especially since prior to that that same house was going up in value some 20%+ a year for something like 5+ years. These were paper profits that a homebuyer buying a home to live in (and not an investor buying a house to invest in) wouldn't even know was happening.

    As I've said before, bubble heads have a hard time understanding homebuying because they aren't out there looking to buy a home ... they're looking to make an investment. People don't live in investments they live in homes.

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  18. Heck yeah, DC is getting beat up. I sold in February 2008. 3200 sf single-family rowhouse Dupont Circle. Very clean, historic features, fixed-up nicely, but no parking. Lowered the price 10% below ANY OTHER single family home price out there (west of 14th Street) that wasn't a gut job, and was about 20% below the asking price per sq ft for equivalent homes in zip 20009. Had lots of interest before I got dropped to that price point - but everyone expressing deep interest had another house to sell and could not sell them. Got a number of swap requests. Once I got low enough, I had multiple bids - THE BIDS started at 23% below my price -- coincidentally, starting within 20K of each other. moved the price up 6% before neither would go any higher. Both offers clean, no contingencies, cash on hand. Went with the one without a broker - investor with lots of cash. It seems to me the decorator homes 4000+ sf in pristine condition near metro are pretty much holding their price, but homes in the 800K- to 1500K price range are taking hits.

    So, what I am saying is on homes just above condo range in price, the only bids I could get were from investors, meaning that the price had to be low. Other buyers either can't sell their old house or can't get credit. Lucky I bought back before the prices went up, and made out well. The house is being converted into condos.

    And, getting multiple bids DOES NOT mean that prices are higher. Just another low-ball shoot-out.

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  19. A house going down in value by less than 5% (or even 10%) from the highpoint in 2005 isn't "falling in value"

    Lance, you just said "a house going down in value" is not "falling in value".

    What is wrong with you, seriously? Do you have some sort of strange disorder?

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  20. (2) A house going down in value by less than 5% (or even 10%) from the highpoint in 2005 isn't "falling in value" ... especially since prior to that that same house was going up in value some 20%+ a year for something like 5+ years. These were paper profits that a homebuyer buying a home to live in (and not an investor buying a house to invest in) wouldn't even know was happening.

    So basically your argument is it isnt falling in prices if the person doesnt know about it. Good logic.

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  21. Anon said:
    "So basically your argument is it isnt falling in prices if the person doesnt know about it. Good logic."

    My argument is that if you are buying a house as an investment, you'd don't have the smarts to be a homeowner. Keep renting.

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  22. tale of the flipper
    1) house purchased 300K on zero down loan. 3K (paint) + 1st payment(1.5K. House sold 350K less commission = 328K. Profit 25K. Wow that was easy.
    2) house purchased 320K on zero down loan. 4K (paint) + 1st payment(1.7K. House sold 370K less commission = 328K. Profit 25K. Wow that was easy.
    3) 40K vehicle purchased...tax deduction!!!
    4) Two houses purchased one for 350K and another(kinda familiar..oh that was the first house I flipped) for 380K..long story..profit on both after 2 months...25K and 40K.
    5) two more houses purchased with 0 down interest only teaser loans....one for 370K and the other for 420K.....what they aren't selling...geez...im leaving this alone...those granite countertops I installed...pulling those out and selling them to a flippin friend...and I am gutting the house for metal too...I'm out of the game....loss Nothing cause I had 0 down and I
    6) got another 0 down loan when I was being NODed above and this one we'll see...I'm gonna rent this one and collect the rent and not pay my mortgage...that will give me enough for a 20% down payment for my next flip under my new LLC.

    the above is a fictional story

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  23. Lance,

    Please take note:

    "THE APPEAL TO AUTHORITY: The appeal to authority is used when someone making an argument can't put any logical reasoning behind it. Instead of supporting an argument with evidence, the argument is supported by simply saying, "Because so-and-so said so." The argument may be correct, but the logic is still fallacious. For example, if someone said that the Earth's gravitational acceleration was 9.8m/s2 because physicists said so, the information would be correct, but they'd be basing it on false logic. Creationists especially love this type of fallacy because they have an authority that they can appeal to for anything that they want: God. Since God knows everything, anything they say can be "proven" correct by appealing to God. The other authority that they like to appeal to is the Bible. "Because Genesis said so, and Genesis was written by men inspired by God," it must be correct. This is known as a Biblical appeal to authority, while the former is known as a deistic appeal to authority. Either way, if there's no reasoning behind the argument, it is fradulant and illogical."

    So much for USA TODAY, come up with your own reasoning!

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