Friday, August 15, 2008

One Quarter of Home Sales are Below Original Purchase Price

CNNMoney reports:
More homeowners than ever are selling at a loss, propelling the real estate market deeper into crisis.

In the 12 months that ended June 30, nearly 25% of all homes sold nationwide fetched less than sellers originally paid, according to real estate Web site Zillow.com.

While the nation's double-digit decline in home prices has been well documented, the new report underscores the economic force of those price declines. Homeowners are walking away with much less in their pocket when they sell. And that affects more than the real estate market.

"It's stunning what's happening out there," said Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics, who looked at statistics that date back to 1996. "The numbers are the worst we've seen and it's not just the magnitude of the problem but the scope - so many markets are affected." ...

Nationwide, nearly a third of all homeowners who bought since 2003 owe more on their homes than the homes are worth. And those that, like Bell, put little or none of their own money into the home purchases, are more likely to try to sell short or simply abandon their homes.

"They hand over their keys and walk away from the homes," says Danielle Babb, a real estate investor, instructor at the University of California Irvine and author of "Finding Foreclosures."

That adds to foreclosure rates. Zillow reported that nearly 15% of U.S. existing home sales during the last 12 months involved foreclosed homes.

That trend will almost surely continue. ...

A plethora of sellers taking losses can have a chilling effect on people's lives, says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

People don't want to sell at a loss, so they put off their plans, whether it's a move for a better job opportunity elsewhere or trading up to a larger home.

"That will delay the [market correction]," said Baker. "It takes time for people to recognize that [these losses] are real."

A quick turnaround is not likely. More than $200 billion in adjustable rate mortgages are scheduled to reset during the second half of 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors, and loans of all types defaulting at high rates. There is also about 11 months of inventory at the current rate of sales.

"With $3.9 million unsold homes on the market, prices will have to come down even more before the market stabilizes," said Zillow's Humphries.
I am surprised that this is coming from Zillow, because I have been having trouble finding homes on Zillow.com where the Zestimate graph shows a significant reversal of the housing bubble. I mostly look in the Washington, DC suburbs and I usually see a huge increase in prices, followed by only a small decline. (Prince William County, VA is a notable exception.) Most homeowners should still be sitting on huge gains, not losses.

Also, if someone had bought a house in 2000, traded it for a new house in 2004, and is trying to sell that today, they would be counted as one of these poor folks who are upside-down on their homes. However, they would have made so much money during the 2000-2004 period that there would be little reason to feel sorry for them. They would be no worse off financially than if they had simply bought a house in 2000 and then held it until today. Except, in this latter case, they wouldn't be counted as upside-down.

22 comments:

  1. This is probably due in part to the meltdown in CA & FL where it seems like everyone is underwater. Something tells me their huge populations is driving this 25% underwater stat.

    ReplyDelete
  2. agree with the anon

    it appears the "nice' suburbs of D.C and Baltimore are barely, if at all, affected by this. Low inventory and high prices persist. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  3. You are exactly right. I have been following Annapolis on Zillow, and while the inventory goes up, the Zestimate price remains stable or slightly up. I don't know how the come up with these Zestimates, but suspect it is some algorithm. It needs to be tweaked.
    Also I still find houses in the Washington area extraordinarily pricey -- three hundred percent more than their tax appraised value, for e.g., especially in close-in areas. They aren't selling at those prices, and I don't think they will for many years to come.

    ReplyDelete
  4. whether they sell or not, the prices are still sticky in the Baltimore-Washington area right now.

    In the severely crashing markets, the prospect of buying seems pretty awesome, as the combo of marked price reductions and currently low interest rates are overlapping.

    My fear is that the price drops here will not occur for a few more years, at which time interest rates may be much higher - which will essentialy wipe out the big benefit...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey, it's the best time to rent in VA, MD and DC! Just pocket and invest the difference!

    ReplyDelete
  6. James, re: your final example, that is only true if there were 0 transaction and moving costs, and we know that those are significant. Also, homeowners typically invest in upgrades and updates in their homes over the years. Finally, a 100% increase is wiped out by a 50% decrease. For example, if you bought a home in 2000 for $300000 and it increased without any investment by you to $600000 by 2006, the $600000 house value doesn't need to decline by 100% to wipe out your gain. If it declines by 50%, it's now worth $300000 again.

    ReplyDelete
  7. ace,

    Your point about the transaction costs is correct, but it is irrelevant regarding whether a homeowner would be more hurt by the housing downturn. The transaction costs are a financial hit they would have taken even if the housing market had kept going up. The same goes for your upgrades claim.

    As for your explanation of percentages, it is good that you know basic math but it is also irrelevant to the example.

    An assumption in my example is that the person moves to a similarly-valued house.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The Anonymous said...
    "This is probably due in part to the meltdown in CA & FL where it seems like everyone is underwater. Something tells me their huge populations is driving this 25% underwater stat."

    I agree with you 100%. I actually had that in the original version of my post, but I removed it for simplicity's sake.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous said...
    "Also I still find houses in the Washington area extraordinarily pricey"

    One theory is that prices fall first in the far suburbs, then the price declines gradually move their way inward. As a Centreville resident, that's what I'm hoping for, because—let's face it—no sane individual would choose to live in DC-proper anyway. If that Manassas implosion would just move its way seven miles northeast, that would be great.

    Although, Annapolis—yeah, I'd love to live on the Chesapeake.

    ReplyDelete
  10. James - is the Centreville correction really that far behind the one taking place Manassas? I havent followed Centreville as all, but I would have just assumed that by now all of PWC communities had imploded bigtime.

    ReplyDelete
  11. The Anonymous said...
    "James - is the Centreville correction really that far behind the one taking place Manassas? I havent followed Centreville as all, but I would have just assumed that by now all of PWC communities had imploded bigtime."

    Centreville is in Fairfax County and there seems to be some magic that is preventing the PWC implosion from crossing the county line.

    ReplyDelete
  12. There's no need to get sarcastic, James, especially when you don't seem to understand what I wrote or didn't review what you posted, to which I replied. Maybe my comments were unclear, so let me try to clarify.

    1) In your original post, you claimed that a person who bought a house in 2000, sold it and bought again in 2004 would be "no worse off financially than if they had simply bought a house in 2000 and then held it until today." That is simply wrong. If you paid $50000 in selling and moving expenses in 2004, you ARE $50000 worse off than if you hadn't, everything else being equal. It's as simple as that. You may still have a gain on the old house that is greater than the loss on the new house but that doesn't change the fact that the two situations you described are definitely NOT equivalent.

    2) My second comment was not addressing whether the two different situations were equivalent, but instead a reaction to the implications in your post that "they would have made so much money during the 2000-2004 period that there would be little reason to feel sorry for them." Unless you know how much TOTAL an individual has invested in their homes and how much the drop in that home's value has been, you have absolutely no basis for saying how much money they have made. There are a lot of people in the area (not in the closest in neighborhoods that have declined the least) who may have improved their homes they bought in 2000 and 2004 and ARE upside down, and you can't tell just from the initial prices paid. People on blogs like this one act as if all of the increase in value in the past x years is due simply to bubblemania. Certainly a lot of it is, but some of it is also due to home improvements and additions, especially in older neighborhoods and this factor needs to be considered.

    3) Like comment #2, my comment that it takes much less of drop to wipe out a gain was not in reaction to your two non-equivalent situation point, but to your general point about whether people are upside down now or not. For example, you say "I mostly look in the Washington DC suburbs and I usually see a huge increase in prices, followed by only a small decline." You didn't give specific numbers; I did (as examples) not to say you were wrong about this, but simply to show that it doesn't take much of a decline to wipe out that "huge increase." There are a lot of people in Loudoun, and maybe now even in Fairfax and other places, who may have gained 60 or 70% in value between 2000 and 2004, for example, are now upside if declines between 30-35% or more in their neighborhood have occurred, especially if they updated their bathrooms, kitchens, etc., with equity loans.

    Sorry if my earlier post was unclear.

    ReplyDelete
  13. sorry -- typo -- "are now upside if" should have been "are now upside down if"

    ReplyDelete
  14. That's crazy! 2003 was half a decade ago and home prices are still less than then.

    Foreclosures will just keep going up with this many people upside down. Why come up with $50,000 to sell your house when you can just mess up your credit for free.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ace,

    I understood what you wrote. I also understand that all three of your arguments are red herrings; they are irrelevant to the point I was illustrating.

    Regarding your point #1, I stand by what I said previously: Your point about the transaction costs is correct, but it is irrelevant regarding whether a homeowner would be more hurt by the housing downturn. The transaction costs are a financial hit they would have taken even if the housing market had kept going up.

    As for point #2: Yes, people can invest in upgrades. They could even plate their house in gold if they want to. They can also fail to maintain their house. On average over the long run, however, houses maintain a fairly steady real value. (Speculative manias excepted.)

    In response to your claim that "People on blogs like this one act as if all of the increase in value in the past x years is due simply to bubblemania." No, the vast majority of the increase in value was due to bubblemania. A sizable minority was due to inflation. On average, none of it was due to home improvements, although each homeowner's situation is different.

    Your point #3 is again irrelevant to my original point. First of all, your original numbers, a 100% increase followed by a 50% decrease, while I understand that they were for illustration only, are not realistic numbers for the Washington, DC metro area. The 100% increase is somewhat realistic, but not the 50% decrease—not even in Prince William County unless the house is bank-owned. According to Zillow, the typical house (I don't know if Zillow is showing mean or median in their graphs) in Loudoun County was worth roughly $200K in January 2000, $550K at the peak, and $400K now. For PWC, those numbers are $150K in Jan 2000, $433K at peak, and $315K now.

    To re-illustrate my original point, using Loudoun County as an example:
    If someone had bought the typical Loudoun house for $200K in 2000, sold it at the peak for $550K, buying another $550K house, which is now worth $400K, they would have made $350K followed by a loss of $150K for a net gain of $200K. However, we would be asked to feel sorry for them and perhaps bail them out with our tax dollars because they lost money on their current home, even though they made out like bandits over the entire period. Other expenses, like transaction costs and home improvements are justifiably ignored from this simplified example because they are expenses the homeowner would have incurred even if the market had kept going up. However, even if we assume they paid a full 6% ($33K) commission when they switched houses, they would still have a net gain of $167. Moving costs might knock that $167K down to a gain of $166K or $165K—still not worth feeling sorry for.

    As for my sarcasm, people who use red herring arguments should expect sarcasm in response.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Well point one is relevant, in that these are sunk cost that would NOT have other wise been incurred by the “mover” if they had decided to stay in the original property from 2000. So I can only assume that the “mover” has some necessity, to change properties. Other wise your example of an equivalently priced real estate transaction is unlikely. People move to bigger, more expensive house, smaller, less expensive houses, or different geographical area’s (this would be the only plausible case for your example…yet still unlikely).
    One: if a house cost 200k in 2000 and was worth 550k in 2004 that is a year over year appreciation of almost 30% per year…which is not just wrong, it’s absurd. I don’t care where you lived in the bubble days.
    Two: zillow.com is nice little place of get a ball park on what housing prices are doing in an area. Yet they are wholly inaccurate. They don’t take the time and effort that an appraiser would to determine the true market value of a specific property based on real factors. At the end of the day a house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay you it. Hence, your number being based on this source makes the profit and loss suspect at best. I would contend that your:
    Percentage increase in way too high, given that period of time and area
    They would have been “lottery” luckey to sell at the top AND actually get full market value/asking price for the property.
    The percentage decrease is way too low.

    More to the point; if you have a 200k house in 2000 assuming with 0% down, your payment would be around @1200 +taxes, PMI and insurance.

    The smart thing would be to take all of the profit and put it down on the new house, thereby putting the people in essentially the same loan, with the exception of, transaction cost, less the PMI, higher taxes and insurance but relatively equivalent. The hidden expense in mortgages in the amount of interest that you pay over the life of the loan… look at any amortization chart. Even on these two relatively similar looking loans they would have been paying far more principal in the former. Further, they have now strung out their payments for an additional length of time (4 years). Is that a cost?
    Of course, cash flow, purchasing power parity, throwing money away on interested (even if it’s partially tax deductable).. this can all be exacerbated by the common yet ill advised thing to do here, take out the biggest loan you can and use the money for repairs, improvements or just something else. Then you’d have a big-ass mortgage that cost you double+ per month, good money sunk in to a depreciating asset, given your time frame for the switch their interest rate would have been worse..all else being equal, another higher expense.

    So would mr “mover” still have been better off, maybe, maybe NOT there are a lot of factors to consider and ultimately the decisions they made before and after the sale and purchase would determine that; hence without knowing that it’s impossible to say.

    ReplyDelete
  17. anonymous said...
    "if a house cost 200k in 2000 and was worth 550k in 2004 that is a year over year appreciation of almost 30% per year…which is not just wrong, it’s absurd. I don’t care where you lived in the bubble days."

    In the original post, I used the example of 2000, 2004, 2008. In my second example I used 2000, peak, 2008. I didn't suggest that 2004 was the peak. 2005-2006 was the peak. The example was different, but the point being illustrated was the same.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Keep in mind that in normal times, many of the home sales would would have been for homes that had been bought maybe 5 or more years ago. Even in bubble markets today, I suspect that these houses would still show appreciation. (even if they had been refi'd upsidedown) So this means that there are LOTS of forced sales.
    Jim A

    ReplyDelete
  19. James said:
    “In the original post, I used the example of 2000, 2004, 2008. In my second example I used 2000, peak, 2008. I didn't suggest that 2004 was the peak. 2005-2006 was the peak. The example was different, but the point being illustrated was the same.”

    “…Moving costs might knock that $167K down to a gain of $166K or $165K”
    OK, so what…even using 2000 to 2006 it will equate to over 20% year over year appreciation for six years, which is still absurd. Sure there were places that have 20, 30, 50% in a year during the bubble years but not in a row and most definitely not in the area you’re talking about. Hence your numbers are still inflated in terms of appreciation and lacking in deprecation, where by you come up with your perspective gain of 200k [(550-200) = +350(400-550)=-150]=+200k. The max a realtor can charge is 6% (550*.06= 33k) which the seller pays all of, the max a mortgage bank can charge is 5% (550*.05=27.5k), which the seller may pay some of, then when purchasing the new place they will need a new mortgage (550*.05=27.5k) again; now we’re up to 88k (which is unrealistically, but that’s the federal max by law.) Plus moving expenses, if you want to move all my stuff of 1-2k your hired, but the real number is like 4-15k. If they used all the money to put down on the new house, they will still pay and additional 10k+ in interest (again check any amortization chart, plus a higher rate) from 06-08 and another 3k each year there after. If they got a bigger loan, the difference could be as much as -50k+ from 06-08 and -17 to --25k each year there after.

    So at the end of the day, you’re over inflated gain and under underestimated loss, they would have still, most likely would have been wiped out any reasonable gain. Further, as we move forward in time, regardless of continuing declines in the housing market (which are likely to continue for some time to come), they would be loosing money every day forward. Not even to mention that every dollar today will be worth less tomorrow (inflation, purchasing power parity).

    ReplyDelete
  20. anonymous said...
    "OK, so what…even using 2000 to 2006 it will equate to over 20% year over year appreciation for six years, which is still absurd."

    Actually, a growth from $200,000 to $550,000 over six years equates to 18.365% per year. Your claim that it is "over 20%" shows that you can't do basic math. I am using actual Loudoun County data (rounded) from Zillow.com, while you are pulling numbers out of your butt. If you dispute the data, back it up with actual Loudoun County data from a different source, rather than making things up. I used Zillow as a source because it was their report mentioned in the article. According to Case-Shiller, the six year increase from Jan 2000 to Jan 2006 for the entire Wash DC area was 16.32% annually. It is not unreasonable to expect that Loudoun County home prices increased at a slightly faster rate during that time due to the faster population growth in that county during the same period.

    I am not going to continue debating things like transaction costs, moving expenses, upgrades, home-equity loans, interest rates, etc, etc, because they introduce an infinite number of different possibilities. They are all red herring arguments that distract from the fairly simple point I was trying to illustrate. Those are all expenses a person would have incurred even if housing prices had continued going up. My point, which has gone completely unchallenged, is that the housing market gains during the upside of the bubble far outweigh any declines that have occurred since then. If homeowners decided to do stupid stuff with their money in the interim, that is their own damn fault.

    ReplyDelete
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