- Perma-bears usually expect the worst.
- Perma-bulls usually expect the best.
- Lemmings usually expect the current trend to continue.
- Contrarians believe in reversion to the mean.
I'd guess David is a perma-bear, although you'd have to ask him. I suspect most longtime Bubble Meter readers are also perma-bears. Lance is definitely a perma-bull.
I, however, am a contrarian. I believe that over the long run, housing prices, stock prices, and economic growth correct themselves. The long-term trend is up, but when things get too good they will get worse; when things get too bad they will get better. That is why I am currently optimistic about both the economy and the stock market over the long run. Housing prices, however, are still too high. But, at some point housing will again become a great investment.
Looking at the list, which type are you?
Posts
Lance is not a perma-bull, he is a troll. I doubt he actually believes the crap that he posts, it's just too incoherent taken as a whole. It only makes sense when you view it from the perspective of him trying to get a rise out of people here.
ReplyDeleteMost people are NTs; however, most bubble bloggers are not. Most Quants are NTs who are not NT. Thus our present difficulties.
ReplyDelete"Most people are lemmings. Lemmings are the people who cause bubbles. When everything's great, they expect it to keep getting better."
ReplyDeleteLemmings cause extended downturns (eventually) . When everything's rotten, they expect it to keep getting worse.
Lemmings take longer to become pessimistic than optimistic.
"I, however, am a contrarian. I believe that over the long run, housing prices, stock prices, and economic growth correct themselves. The long-term trend is up, but when things get too good they will get worse; when things get too bad they will get better."
ReplyDeleteEXACTLY!!! For the last 14-18 months, I have been warning about the bust, and people have been calling me a total gloomy gus.
Now that the bust is here, many of them come back, now scared (petrified even), but yet they are puzzled because now my outlook has brightened substantially in the last 2 months because FINALLY the bust is here. NOW we can purge the excesses and grow again!
For the last year, it was correct to be bearish, but it was hard to distinguish contrarians from permabears. Problem is, now that there are some true signs of BOTTOMING (there I said it), the perma bears cant let go. Some sites, Mr. Mortgage, Housing Doom, etc. are now revealing themselves as true perma bears because they ALWAYS dismiss any good news, ALWAYS see the glass as half empty - their outlook cannot be trusted.
Even now, I expect some perma bear to jump up and harp on this rant, calling me a knife catcher, pollyanna, whatever! At the end of the day, long after the bust is over, and the recovery is in full swing, you and I will be gone, yet the permabears will still be here screaming knifecatcher, dead cat bounce, etc, etc. The echo chamber at that point will be deafening...
James - thank you for being the way you are. Dont be afraid to call it as you see it, even if it will make some here very angry.
A good example of lemmings. A few months ago oil was at $140/barrel and all of the pundits were pointing towards $200/barrel. Now oil is around $50 and all of the pundits see no bottom in sight.
ReplyDelete"Now oil is around $50 and all of the pundits see no bottom in sight."
ReplyDeleteThis has a lot to do with demand falling off a cliff and plunging like Wile E. Coyote. As the Gay Oil Guru (he of the Italianate style home in DC) said: "Oil is now a leading economic indicator."
There is no bottom in sight for oil prices because there is no bottom in sight to this economic downturn.
"Lance is not a perma-bull, he is a troll. I doubt he actually believes the crap that he posts, it's just too incoherent taken as a whole. It only makes sense when you view it from the perspective of him trying to get a rise out of people here."
ReplyDeleteThis clearly indicates that Lance got into your head and under your skin.
Anon from 10:13:
ReplyDeleteI'm working through Tom Zimmerman's Oct 30th talk, and he's looking at the real estate market turning around in about 9 months.
Actually things are starting to clarify. World Depression Two (WDII) will be considerably worse than the "Great Depression" (WDI), but it should be over in about 6 years. Then we get about 20 good years. Then the real trouble (for us) starts. But the "bottom" is maybe a year out.
As Des Lachman likes to say, it would seem to be already baked in the cake.
Hope that helps.
Perma-bears usually expect the worst.
ReplyDeleteReal Perma-bears are prepared for the worst.
Perma-bulls usually expect the best.
Real Perma-bulls invest expecting good things.
Lemmings usually expect the current trend to continue.
Lemmings always go with the trend with no expectations and are ultimately powerless to change no matter what their will.
Contrarians believe in reversion to the mean.
No. We contrarians understand reversion but actually invest based on the idea that other people make actionable mistakes.
John M - sounds good to me. At first I was concerned this was worldwide implosion, literally the collapse of western civilization. I dont see that happening anymore.
ReplyDeleteBy this guys prediction we just have a 6 year depression? Ill take it over my worst fears any day!!!
Anon at 10:13
No, that prediction isn't from one of the AEI bankers -- it's my extrapolation from a recent article by a greater-DC history professor named Scott Nelson.
ReplyDeleteWestern Civilization collapses between about 2045 and 2075, but fortunately that's not the only civilization on the world.
The straw in the wind was Walmart.
David may very well be a perma bear. He pretty much quit posting once sales increased, inventory levels started dropping, and it became clear, some areas (particularly ouside the beltway) were going to get hit much much harder than the other areas.
ReplyDeleteBut as that Jackass Neil used to say - Cest La Vie!!!
i'm a lemming/perma-cow hybrid, but thankfully i'm so hybridized that my genes won't pass to my progeny... much like the annual seed/herbicide cocktail the petrochemical companies sell agribusiness every year, spray w/ petroleum-based pesticides, then feed to my people!
ReplyDeletelemming/perma-cows unite!
I don't know what the hell I am. All I know is I haven't made a good investment decision since the dot com boom. Except for one, because of this blog I didn't buy a house in 2006.
ReplyDeleteThanks David!
John Fontain said...
ReplyDelete"A good example of lemmings. A few months ago oil was at $140/barrel and all of the pundits were pointing towards $200/barrel. Now oil is around $50 and all of the pundits see no bottom in sight."
I expect oil to fall another $90. :-)
John M said...
ReplyDelete"Most people are NTs; however, most bubble bloggers are not. Most Quants are NTs who are not NT. Thus our present difficulties."
What is an NT?
I don't know if I am a perma-bear or a contrarian. Generally I try and head the opposite direction as the lemmings, which I guess makes me a bit of a contrarian, but on the other hand I see economic problems facing us that last for decades - perhaps even a century. If that doesn't make me a perma-bear I don't know what does...
ReplyDeleteuhhh, James, I think John M was making fun of your classifications.
ReplyDeleteIf oil falls another $90, I'll take as much as the drillers want to sell me. Send my oil and my check to my PO Box. Actually, don't even bother sending the oil, just send me the $40 a barrel for my purchase.
ReplyDeletemiguel,
ReplyDeleteI'm not making fun of anything. I left a sort-of explanation a while ago but it involved some links and it would seem the local spam-filter didn't like. Hope this gets through.
Why am I a permanent bear? Because all these new jobs President-elect Obama promises will be filled mostly by illegal immigrants or H1-B visas. Roads and bridges will be built or repaired by contractors who will hire mostly illegals, and engineering and high tech firms will look to fill its rolls with H1-B visas. Another problem is our labor markets are becoming too specialized. Many jobs won't get filled because applicants don't have the exact qualifications, or they'll get hired by unqualified H1-B applicants who will work for almost anything. This is why our standard of living is dropping to the same level, while for other countries like China it perpetually remains stalled.
ReplyDeleteSorry James, but I am a contrarian ... like yourself. If you'd been in a position to be able to buy smartly (i.e., something of real value) prior/during the boom, like I was, you would have bought and been better off today, as I am. However, through the chance of circumstance, you weren't, so you've been instead betting on the silver lining of the black cloud of the down side of the circle. Note, that I was once in the same position as you. Nothing is forever, and the long term trend is always up. And when you do get into buying where you live, vs. renting it, it should be for the longterm. (Note I mean being a homeowner and not being in the same house. There's a difference there which those looking in from the outside tend to forget.)
ReplyDeletePoor, poor lance.
ReplyDeleteHis is the story of a wanna-be cool gay guy.
You see, San Francisco was too expensive and exclusive cool gay for lance, so he moved here and bought a Kalorama condo.
When it looked like he might get priced out of his dream of owning in cool gay territory, he leveraged himself into a home he can't really afford.
Now that he is in it, he must be getting recognition for being cool gay, right?
Wrong.
He isn't being accepted into elite gaydom as he expected, so he must blog and try to find attention on the Internet.
When he moved from his Kalorama condo, he also had to surrender his treasured low-level post of ANC commissioner - this is what he means when he touts being involved in your community.
Such a sad, sad, empty life lance leads.
Poor, poor lance.
ReplyDeleteHis is the story of a wanna-be cool gay guy.
You see, San Francisco was too expensive and exclusive cool gay for lance, so he moved here and bought a Kalorama condo.
When it looked like he might get priced out of his dream of owning in cool gay territory, he leveraged himself into a home he can't really afford.
Now that he is in it, he must be getting recognition for being cool gay, right?
Wrong.
He isn't being accepted into elite gaydom as he expected, so he must blog and try to find attention on the Internet.
When he moved from his Kalorama condo, he also had to surrender his treasured low-level post of ANC commissioner - this is what he means when he touts being involved in your community.
Such a sad, sad, empty life lance leads.
Why am I a permanent bear? Because all these new jobs President-elect Obama promises will be filled mostly by illegal immigrants or H1-B visas. Roads and bridges will be built or repaired by contractors who will hire mostly illegals, and engineering and high tech firms will look to fill its rolls with H1-B visas. Another problem is our labor markets are becoming too specialized. Many jobs won't get filled because applicants don't have the exact qualifications, or they'll get hired by unqualified H1-B applicants who will work for almost anything. This is why our standard of living is dropping to the same level, while for other countries like China it perpetually remains stalled.
ReplyDeleteNo, that prediction isn't from one of the AEI bankers -- it's my extrapolation from a recent article by a greater-DC history professor named Scott Nelson.
ReplyDeleteWestern Civilization collapses between about 2045 and 2075, but fortunately that's not the only civilization on the world.
The straw in the wind was Walmart.
"Lance is not a perma-bull, he is a troll. I doubt he actually believes the crap that he posts, it's just too incoherent taken as a whole. It only makes sense when you view it from the perspective of him trying to get a rise out of people here."
ReplyDeleteThis clearly indicates that Lance got into your head and under your skin.
Sorry James, but I am a contrarian ... like yourself. If you'd been in a position to be able to buy smartly (i.e., something of real value) prior/during the boom, like I was, you would have bought and been better off today, as I am. However, through the chance of circumstance, you weren't, so you've been instead betting on the silver lining of the black cloud of the down side of the circle. Note, that I was once in the same position as you. Nothing is forever, and the long term trend is always up. And when you do get into buying where you live, vs. renting it, it should be for the longterm. (Note I mean being a homeowner and not being in the same house. There's a difference there which those looking in from the outside tend to forget.)
ReplyDelete