Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Home prices plunging even faster

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index, the home price decline is still accelerating:
The home price slide accelerated during the first three months of 2009, according to a report issued Tuesday.

The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price index, a bellwether of real-estate market direction, plunged a record 19.1% during the quarter compared with the first three months of 2008. That followed an 18.2% drop last quarter. ...

The ugly report was somewhat unexpected, according to Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research.

"The market was anticipating better results," he said. "There had been some signs of increased sales in post-bubble markets."

But that sales increase has not translated into higher prices. Bargain hunting — bottom fishing really — for foreclosures and other distressed properties has driven sales volume up while further depressing prices.

The foreclosure sales, which many appraisers used to ignore when they evaluated home prices because they represented outliers rather than typical sales, now have to be accounted for.

"These used to be anomalies," said Larson. "Now, when sales are dominated by foreclosures, where they represent 50% or more of [transactions], they are the market."
It is amazing that pundits are expecting that a bottom is right around the corner when price declines are falling at a 19% annual rate. House price declines rarely turn on a dime. In fact, I doubt it has ever happened in recorded history anywhere in the world. You should expect the rate of decline to start slowing at about the half-way point, but right now price declines are still accelerating.

Pundits have been consistently claiming that a bottom was right around the corner ever since late 2005. Go back and check Ben Bernanke's statements. He first claimed the market was about to hit bottom two or three years ago.

27 comments:

  1. "James said...

    You should expect the rate of decline to start slowing at about the half-way point, but right now price declines are still accelerating."

    You mean, like here in DC where the price declines are decelerating

    Oct -18.78%
    Nov -19.47%
    Dec -19.60% (Peak rate of drop)
    Jan -19.34%
    Feb -19.19%
    Mar -18.38%

    Tell me again, why is it that (as you said a few months ago) DC will not bottom til after the rest of the country hits bottom? Do you still believe that James?

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  2. Seriously, why are they surprised that people were looking for bargains or "bottom feeding"? I am not a real estate analyst or particularly knowledgeable and I knew this. These people get paid a sh**load of money to be this clueless about something this obvious? Sigh. Real Estate needs a better class of analysts.

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  3. According to an article in the Wash Post, prices are DC (the city) are flat. Prices in Chevy Chase where I live are actually going up. It makes no sense but prices are climbing. They are asking $349,000 for a 1Bdrm!

    I guess DC will only be populated by rich people.

    Any comments?

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  4. "I guess DC will only be populated by rich people.

    Any comments?"

    and renters

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  5. The rest of the country is where AZ, CA, and FL were 6-12 months ago. Now, according to ListingSupply.com, the supply of homes for sale in the markets that were hit the hardest is falling pretty fast. I even read that PHX is down to about 5 months' home supply. Price stability is still probably 3-6 months away in CA, AZ and FL and 12-18 months away for the rest of the country.

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  6. "Anonymous said...
    "I guess DC will only be populated by rich people.

    Any comments?"

    and renters"

    Thats probably true. Many cities are now the playground of the wealthy, and the vast underclass of poor renters who serve them - there is no room for the middleclass in that equasion.

    It looks like DC is finally growing up and acting like a regular city.

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  7. OC anonymous.

    Let's assume that this is true and that James is right. Since the market first turned 0 in early 2006, and it took 3 years to hit a midpoint, wouldn't that mean that we're expecting a 2012 bottom?

    Isn't that about what most bubble bloggers have been saying for about 3 years? I know that my call was 2011-2012 timeframe for a bottom at first glance. Time and again, human nature trumps what many pundits who are not students of human psychology would attribute to chance. Similar trends are very synchronous.

    In addition, an important point to make is that the median really only reflects that which is actually selling. As stated, a majority of sales (Over 50%, instead of 20-30% claimed to be normal) are in the lowest tier. This means that while that correction is perhaps close to done (might as well pick up a condo now or soon), the mid and high-end range has had a significant dearth of activity. Some believe it is because people are "waiting". I believe it's because you just effectively killed off 7-10 years of move-up buyers with the latest price action. Low-end buyers of 2004-2008 cannot escape, much less put a larger down on a bigger place. The great squish-down is about to commence.

    Chuck Ponzi

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  8. Maybe Chuck. Our high end is selling twice as fast as whats going on in Cali, but its still slow. 2012 bottom? Sure, why not.

    Thats not my gripe though. My gripe is when james came out and stated (with no evidence or rationale why) DC wont hit bottom til after the rest of the USA does. He believes this despite indication (such as CS) that we will be among the first to bottom.

    Thanks for bringing it back up. So let me ask again, James, do you still believe DC area wont bottom til after the rest of the USA does? Do you have anything to support that or is it merely wishful thinking?

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  9. "Many cities are now the playground of the wealthy"

    Yeah, well DC aint no Manhattan. So you can give that argument up REAL quick unless you are a complete fool.

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  10. "Thanks for bringing it back up. So let me ask again, James, do you still believe DC area wont bottom til after the rest of the USA does?"

    I know you are talking to James...but do you think a home that sold 8 years ago for $300K should be going for $1.5M? You dont think the price needs to drop a little? Dont ask James for common sense, get your own.

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  11. 1.5M 0.5M 2.5M, I dont care. All I am asking about is will the DC market bottom after the rest of the USA. James? James???

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  12. "Anon said...Yeah, well DC aint no Manhattan. So you can give that argument up REAL quick unless you are a complete fool."

    Very true - Manhattan prices are crashing. Manhattan wishes it had a price trend like this.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/graphics/2009/homeprices/district-of-columbia-sfh.html

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  13. Yeah, well DC aint no Manhattan. So you can give that argument up REAL quick unless you are a complete fool.Cue clueless idiotic comment about good pizza and Gray's Papaya Hot Dogs.

    As far as:

    do you think a home that sold 8 years ago for $300K should be going for $1.5M?Do you have an example (say a Zillow link, or something)? Having said that, it depends where the house is. I know there are houses on Capitol Hill that easily fit that description.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/charts/421466_zpid,10years_chartDuration/

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  14. You guys remember when home sales first went up YOY, and the doomers were all there to tell us - there arent enough buyers - this trend will run out of steam soon.

    What was that 14 months ago? Man I love denial. Fun times!

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  15. Well in MY neighborhood (Northern College Park) we're closer to the bottom than the top. House two doors down from me sold for 361k in Oct 2006 and auctioned off for 155k last Tuesday. 55% off means that the bottom may be near. But what all those people holding onto shadow inventory don't realize is that after we hit bottom, we're in for a long, flat stagnation, not a return to 20% appreciation. Because those prices were based on the idea that housing only goes up and was a sure and easy invesement. Few people with their own money to spend are still laboring under those illusions.
    --Jim A

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  16. What makes you think that 55% off means that we are near a bottom? Mortage rates are rising quickly, unemployment continues to increase, net worth and income are way down, and very few people have any equity to trade up. The higher end of the market is yet to fall. I spoke to a real estate agent in MD that has yet to have a $600K sale this year. 3 years ago, $600K was the average house around here. Jumbo loans have yet to get near the level of conventional loans. I, for one, don't think we are near the bottom yet.

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  17. I would tend to agree that once we hit bottom, things will be stagnant for a while.

    There will still be lots of people underwater when we reach bottom. They may still have the ability to pay the mortgage, but they won't be able to sell either.

    I suspect we have only begun to see movement in the >1M$ homes. Many were purchased using easy credit and the hopes that they could be flipped for a profit. Potential buyers will not have either one, and for the most part will be reluctant to pay that kind of money for homes that in other neighborhoods would be fairly ordinary.

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  18. "1.5M 0.5M 2.5M, I dont care. All I am asking about is will the DC market bottom after the rest of the USA."

    The answer is, ABSOLUTELY. Things just started really dropping. Lets watch it keep going and going and going and going to play catch up.

    A home that has tripled or quadrupled in price the past 10 years is not worth its pricetag...salaries have not triple or quadrupled in the past 10 years.

    Use those brains knuckleheads, you're gonna have to in order to survive this economy. The days of being semi-retarded, obese and buying overpriced things on other peoples money are just about done.

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  19. "The answer is, ABSOLUTELY. Things just started really dropping. Lets watch it keep going and going and going and going to play catch up."

    Dude - look at the first post in this thread. See how the rate of delcline is SLOWING in DC? How is DC going to catch up if its rate is SLOWING? Fool...

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  20. "Dude - look at the first post in this thread. See how the rate of delcline is SLOWING in DC?"

    The only thing I see slowing is the sales

    http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Washington-District_Of_Columbia/market-trends/

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  21. The only thing I see slowing is the sales

    Yep - kinda reminds me of 1996 when NOVA sales went to two decade lows.

    Still, the fact that prices bottomed in 92, then went flat for 4 more years is just a minor detail...

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  22. "Yep - kinda reminds me of 1996 when NOVA sales went to two decade lows. "

    It shouldn't as the prices now are still the highest they have ever been sans the previous peak price. There will be a lot more than 4 years of flat buying if prices stay the outrageous prices they are here in Montgomery County.

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  23. A home that has tripled or quadrupled in price the past 10 years is not worth its pricetag...salaries have not triple or quadrupled in the past 10 years.In general, you're right. In areas of radical gentrification, you're wrong.

    That's the laughable thing about trying to apply the same iron-clad rules to "The Washington Area".

    I always assumed the value of real estate in the 'burbs would experience a violent collapse, just figured it would be over the next decades instead of the next year or two.

    Glad I bought in DC's "gentrification zone."

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  24. "Glad I bought in DC's 'gentrification zone.'"

    what are the salaries like there? The highest family household income I can find in all of the DC metro area is $75K!!! Whats crazy is I make way more than this on my salary alone, not even counting my wifes salary and I will never buy in montgomery county until prices drop AT LEAST 40% from this very moment

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  25. Anonymous said...
    "James? James???"

    If you want an answer from me, don't post as anonymous. Create an account and log in.

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  26. what are the salaries like there? The highest family household income I can find in all of the DC metro area is $75K!!!Generally two-income households making in the high five-figure to low six-figures. I know of exactly two foreclosures in my general area, and both were crack house rentals. One of them is now going through a gut-rehab.

    It's all I can do to keep from cheering on the foreclosures...

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