Friday, May 22, 2009

Radar Logic: Slowing price declines

According to Radar Logic, home price declines are slowing—but not in DC:
There’s more evidence this morning that the house-price free fall has slowed: A composite index of 25 metro markets across the country declined by just 0.3% in March from the previous month, matching a similar January-to-February decline, according to a monthly report by Radar Logic. ...

While the numbers don’t show a bottom in housing, the seasonal strength in pricing shows that some level of stability has returned. ...

Washington, D.C., posted the largest monthly decline, with prices falling 7.5% on a price-per-square foot basis.

Boston led the 25 cities in price increases in March, with a 6% monthly gain, followed by Denver, where prices jumped 5.7%.
These are month-to-month numbers, which tend to be unreliable. Prices normally increase during the spring and fall in autumn, for example.

According to the Case-Shiller numbers, inflation-adjusted housing prices since 1997 have been making a very nice bell shaped curve. As we get closer to the bottom, price declines should start slowing. I would have expected the inflection point to be at the half-way mark, but by my estimates the nation as a whole is about two-thirds of the way down.