In a blow to the optimism that had surrounded the U.S. housing sector in recent months, housing starts fell a sharp 10.6% in October, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.As you know, I don't put much stock in month-over-month changes. However, I suspect October's decline was tax credit related. Since it was uncertain in October whether the homeowner tax credit would get renewed, this may give us an idea of what to expect when the tax credit finally goes away next year (hopefully).
New construction on housing units dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000, the lowest level since April. The 10.6% drop was the biggest percentage decline for starts since January.
Both single-family homes and multifamily units declined last month.
Prior to the October decline, housing starts have been flat for four straight months, on the heels of a big rebound earlier in the year from historic lows for the home-building industry.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Housing starts fell significantly in October
Month-over-month housing starts fell in October:
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"this may give us an idea of what to expect when the tax credit finally goes away next year (hopefully)."
ReplyDeleteI hope it goes away too, but the trend has been the opposite. This isn't the first time that the tax subsidy was expanded. Remember back when the credit was originally an interest free loan that needed to be repaid eventually? Then it became a giveaway. Now it has become a giveaway to high income earners and existing owners. At this rate, we should be able to wait a few more years and the government will be buying entire homes for us. The contrived sense of urgency with the "expiration" worked this time around, but it may backfire down the line if this handout keeps growing and growing every time it "expires."
I share Bostonbubble's concern. I'm not aware of any good reason that this tax credit will not be continued, expanded, or made permanent.
ReplyDeleteI am aware of good reasons why it SHOULD not be continued. However, as they are economic, rather than political reasons, I have little confidence that they will carry the day.
A question on property taxes .Are taxes based on sales price or assesed priced and is value reassesed every year ?
ReplyDeleteAnon 12:30, this will depend on the jurisdiction you live in.
ReplyDeleteIn Maryland, property taxes are based on assessed value. I'm not exactly sure how that value is determined, but I believe that actual sales prices and comps are the most important factor in the calculation.
Also in Maryland, properties are not reassessed every year. It is done on a rolling basis with each property being reassessed (I think) every third year.
The 3-year reassessment schedule has recently resulted in some crazy stuff. For example, if your house was assessed in 2001 and again in 2004, your property taxes would have all of a sudden jumped through the roof. Also, for properties assessed in, say 2005, owners were still paying exhorabtant property taxes in 2008based on bubble prices when the comps for their properties had actually deteriorated quite a bit. Also, if you and your neighbor were on different assessment schedules, you would have been paying wildly different property tax amounts for the same type of house in the same neighborhood.
The rolling property tax assessments mean that most houses' tax assessments are just now catching up to the bubblicious prices of the past few years. This high tax burden is another reason that housing is under pressure.
There is just no way the FED MBS buy program is not extended in the new year. No way.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't this be a bullish indicator? That it costs more to build new than to purchase from existing inventory?
ReplyDeleteThat's where things are in my established neighborhood. The replacement cost (lot, materials, labor) is higher than prevailing prices. I suspect it's worse in the exurbs where recent new development was hit much harder by foreclosures.
I agree, Mark F, that this could be a bullish indicator. However, doesn't it normally, at least to some extent, cost more to build new than to buy used?
ReplyDelete"Also, if you and your neighbor were on different assessment schedules, you would have been paying wildly different property tax amounts for the same type of house in the same neighborhood."
ReplyDeleteIn wonderful Calif., your retired neighbor that's lived in their house for 30 years may be paying $500 a year in taxes, while if you bought recently you may be paying $5000 a year for the same size house/lot. Thank Prop 13 for that one.
Thank you Tangelo for that info on property tax ....I live in New Jersey ,My taxes are over 22K ,I was looking to get out, I hear MD taxes are pretty good ....tks again
ReplyDeleteNo matter what the statistics say, the short sales and foreclosures will continue to mount. The government only wants to help buyers with tax credits, but until we do something more to help keep homeowners in their homes this real estate market has little upside.
ReplyDeleteOffer in Compromise said...
ReplyDeleteuntil we do something more to help keep homeowners in their homes this real estate market has little upside.
I don't see people staying in their homes with some kind of principle write-down, so that investors take a hit along with the borrower.
It's my understanding that the way mortgages were bundled into securities, and tranched into collateralized debt obligations (and further traded as credit default swaps in synthetic CDOs), there is no clear ownership. A mortgage might be owned by 10,000 people. When the servicer is faced with foreclosure, there's no way to write down $50k and avoid the $100k cost of foreclosure.
That's an example of the Agency problem which the new style of mortgage processing leads to. The broker doesn't care if the borrower is a bad risk, the broker gets his fees.
The bank doesn't care, they're going to sell it to Wall St., collecting their fees.
Wall St. investment house doesn't care, they've got investors willing to pour money into new bonds, involving fees to create newly-issued bonds.
The ratings agencies don't care, as long as the math looks right (wink, wink). Lots of fees for them.
The CDS underwriters don't care. They collect their premiums.
The mortgage servicing companies don't care. They get some of the "vig" off the top. Probably more profit in a lengthy foreclosure than a quick write-down.
Brought to us by the "markets get it right" crowd.
Look who is profiting from housing again. It's good to have Timmy in the administration.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/34098888
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteLook who is profiting from housing again.
Actually, that sounds pretty good. An intermediary helping toxic asset holders get out, and upside-down borrowers reduce their cost basis.
The part about pushing risk to taxpayers sounds contrived. With programs like TARP, etc., taxpayers own this stuff anyway. Being able to unwind the private-market loans into socially-backed loans at a more reasonable price is a net win.
But, I'm unclear how this works with CDOs. Even if a bank owns 20% of a CDO, there is no clear ownership of any specific mortgage. A bank may co-own mortgages with hundreds of investors around the world.
Therefore, I don't see how a "vulture" investment fund could have the power to mark off a loss for all the other CDO investors.
This has to be a very narrow niche of mortgages that aren't part of MBS/CDO vehicles.
Anon, MD taxes only look good if you live in NJ. MD taxes are actually quite high compared to most other states.
ReplyDeleteSince state taxes come from so many sources (income, property, sales, miscellaneous fees), it can be difficult to compare tax burdens from state to state. For instance, when you are comparing NJ's taxes to DE's taxes, you have to account for the fact the DE has no sales tax.
I applaud your courage to vote with your feet against NJ's tax policy. Just make sure to do your research so you aren't jumping out ofthe frying pan and into the fire.
MARK F, you sound like you have been reading Charlie Gasparino's "Sellout". If you have not, you should, I think you'd like it.
ReplyDeleteTangelo Mozilo said...
ReplyDeleteI share Bostonbubble's concern. I'm not aware of any good reason that this tax credit will not be continued, expanded, or made permanent.
Can you imagine.....It's the first of November and you've got $8K burning a hole in your pocket and you put an offer on a house....only to find out after you've closed that you could have had until spring of next year? Could you have negotiated the price a little more? Could you have waited a few more weeks/months?
Priceless.
And the sheeple continue to eat this s*@#t up.
Its going to be hilarious when this next credit expires and they raise the incentives with next years credit!
ReplyDeleteThere is no good reason not to wait. Prices are dropping and incentives are rising...All the while your down payment gets larger as well.