Question, does anyone know if we officially went into a recession in this area "2 negative quarters of GRP"?? My suspicion is no, in which case, its inaccurate to say we are "emerging" from the recession when we never entered one in the first place.First of all, NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, only makes its judgments for the country as a whole. Therefore, if "we" are in the United States of America then "we" are/were in a recession.
Second, the belief that a recession is defined as two quarters of negative economic growth is pure myth, not fact.
Third, in the question, "this area" could be defined in multiple ways. In the blog comments, people who live in DC-proper have long complained that the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area includes a small part of West Virginia. To them, any part of West Virginia is irrelevant. Meanwhile, someone who lives and works in Fairfax County, Virginia might care far more about the Fairfax County unemployment rate than the DC unemployment rate.
Anyway, here are unemployment rate graphs for differing definitions of "this area", depending on where you live.
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area unemployment rate:
District of Columbia unemployment rate:
State of Maryland unemployment rate:
Commonwealth of Virginia unemployment rate:
So, were "we" in the DC area in a recession? Yep, any way you look at it.
Posts
Prices in the immunozone went up yet again.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mris.com/reports/stats/monthly_reti.cfm
Dear God!!! Make it stop... MAKE IT STOP... WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!
"Prices in the immunozone went up yet again."
ReplyDeleteYeah it gets old to read you say that in everythread, especially since I live in Texas.
Prices in the immunozone never really went down. Prices went down only in the far out suburbs like Prince Wiliam and Loudoun .... In the other areas they just stopped going up for two years or so ... Now they climbing again. This is no surprise since we have a highly paid/educated work force. And the relentless spending of the federal government keeps prices abnormally high.
ReplyDeletePrices in the immunozone never really went down. Prices went down only in the far out suburbs like Prince William and Loudoun .... In the other areas they just stopped going up for two years or so ... Now they climbing again. This is no surprise since we have a highly paid/educated work force. And the relentless spending of the federal government keeps prices abnormally high. This, however can't keep going forever .... At some point we are going to pay a dear price and the economy of the immunozone will be shattered. Ouch!
ReplyDeleteAt least I'm glad to see a few of us are not in denial that we are in a recession.
ReplyDeleteBut... PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tisk, Tisk, Tisk, "highly paid/educated work force" does not protect you from a recession.
Your job could easily move itself overseas if it wants to. And you may not necessary be invited to go with it.
Hopefully, this is not your reality, but don't be too confident, because it is happening in your area.
Let's see how this has played out in other parts of the country.
No job = No work = No pay = No Health Insurance = Default on Mortgage = High Inventory on the Market for possible short sale = Foreclosures = Increased Inventory on the Market both public and bank owned = BINGO! We have a winner...
Which means, after a long period of reality and hardship, you will come to understand that your high pay and high level of education really means just about nothing when up against a recession.
This could be you. Don't be foolish to think because you live in a certain zip code that you are immune. Your zip code is only one of thousands in the USA. And when your zip code does turn South, chances are, you are going to be standing in a very long line at that point.
At least those who have survived the burst in other parts of the country are in recovery, if you haven't burst yet, then you can either wait for it or plan for it.
What are you going to do?
Wow - 4% unemployment in Immunington. Maybe some day it will be as bad as it was in 1993...
ReplyDeleteOr maybe not...
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&idim=state:ST510000&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate+Virginia#met=unemployment_rate&idim=county:PS510100
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"Wow - 4% unemployment in Immunington."
I think it's a bit ridiculous to assume that the very localized area where you live somehow gives you special employment advantages over another area well within commuting distance. For example, Arlington, Fairfax County, and Loudoun County all have unemployment rates in the 4.0-4.6% range. Meanwhile, DC has a 12% unemployment rate. Do you think someone who lives in DC can't drive to the same job someone who lives in Arlington can?
The real difference is probably the education level of the people who live in a given area. Calculated Risk has a graph showing that the unemployment rate is very different for people with different levels of education. A college graduate living in Loudoun County is every bit as immune as a college graduate living in Arlington. However, the college graduate living in Loudoun County probably has a bigger house with a bigger yard.
The unemployment rate disparity between Loudoun County (4.6%) and DC (12.0%) also disproves the argument that living inside the beltway gives people special economic advantages. After all, most of this area's defense contractors and biotech companies are located in the DC suburbs.
James Said...A college graduate living in Loudoun County is every bit as immune as a college graduate living in Arlington.
ReplyDeleteB B But James... Angry Anon @ 10:18pm had laid down a missive screed about how being "highly paid/educated work force" does not make you immune, and yet you prove that they pretty much are.
Heres your chance Angry Anon. Rage... RAGE!!! Spew all your bile and venom against James and tell him how wrong he is.
I love how the "immune" areas these jokers post are getting smaller and smaller.
ReplyDeleteActually, no its going the other way.
ReplyDeleteUsed to be 22207,
then N. Arlington,
then "most of Arlington",
then "most of Arlington & Alexandria",
then "most of Arlington, Alexandria, & parts of Fairfax
then "most of Arlington, Alexandria, parts of Fairfax, & parts of DC.
UP next maybe Bethesda & Potomac, but jury is still out on them...
The Social Fiber of America discourages anger and rage. Those who encourage that kind of behavior will stand alone during our recovery.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/jobless-america-future
"Actually, no its going the other way. "
ReplyDeletehuh? You must have been reading the wrong blog for the past 5 years.
The original immunezone covered everywhere from manassas to fredrick. Now its down to a small area inside the beltway.
Its a bit of both. First 4 years, immunozone kept getting smaller & smaller. Over the past year, as adjacent areas have pulled back from the praecipe, immunozone is getting larger and larger.
ReplyDeleteWhen looking at DC, you have to keep in mind that the District is very divided. Far SE unemployment rate is almost 30% IIRC. Even in the good times, their unemployment was way over 10%. Highly paid/educated workers don't typically live down there. Compare to upper NW or even NE and you will find the unemployment rate more in line with Arlington and other areas of the immunozone.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the immunozone should be defined as inside the beltway, but not including far SE, or PG county (the inside the beltway portion).
This discussion is becoming so redundant! Not leading to any real solution or outcome!
ReplyDeleteThe unemployment rate disparity between Loudoun County (4.6%) and DC (12.0%) also disproves the argument that living inside the beltway gives people special economic advantages.
ReplyDeleteAs anonymous 10:46 pointed out, this post betrays such a profound ignorance of District demographics, it's astounding.
Just to put on my asshole-hat for a second: while this is a personal tragedy for a lot of uneducated lower-income folks, it certainly is in no way a bad thing for more affluent DC residents. Crime is a function of poverty (and youth), and with an increase in the unemployment rate, we're going to be seeing a lot of folks unable to make rent, and forced to move from gentrifying areas out to the suburbs.
This general trend of "the suburbanization of poverty" causes an accelleration of gentrification and over time will lead to higher home values *and* a reduction in crime. And improvements in schools. At the expense of the suburban jurisdictions.