Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Fortune: Housing not recovering

Fortune Magazine argues that housing isn't really recovering:
Americans purchased homes at a surprising clip in April, but don't let that fool you into thinking the housing market is back.

Although economists were expecting a month-over-month increase of 5.5%, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that sales of previously owned homes rose an unexpected 7.6%. That continued a yearlong rise in housing activity and marked the highest number of sales recorded since November of last year.

It also follows a drumbeat of similarly rosy economic news signaling the possibility that the United States may be on the economic mend. ...

But prospective home buyers, particularly those tempted to think of real estate as an investment again, should tread with caution. One critical obstacle to a housing recovery remains intact: supply. Until the number of empty homes starts to shrink, prices could still fall further.

Moreover, notes Joseph Foudy, a professor of economics and management at NYU's Stern School of Business, we're coming off of an artificial bump from the first time home buyer credit, which expired last month. ...

Many defaults have yet to be figured into the housing market because banks are sitting on them or they are being held back due to government programs like the federal Home Affordable Modification Program. ... At some point these homes will go on the market, further depressing prices.

66 comments:

  1. Hey, remember when the fed was buying mortgages, and everyone said, "just wait til April 1 when the fed stops purchasing MBS. There is no other market and rates will explode!"

    That was fun wasnt it?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mortgage-Rates-at-New-Lows-cnbc-442681525.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

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  2. Hey remember when Japan did what we are doing? We have a looooooooooooooooong time of stagnation awaiting us.

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  3. Hey, remember when everyone was saying that once the tax credit expires and all of the forward demand is exhausted prices would begin to decline?

    "Single-family home prices were unchanged in March from February, but fell in the first quarter under renewed pressure before federal aid for buyers faded away, Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller home price indexes showed Tuesday."

    Well, it is TRUE!!!!

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  4. And yet, despite all the wailing and teeth gnashing about whats going on nationally, Case Shiller DC is up +5.63% on a YOY basis...

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  5. So? That could be from many things...including a price shift to more expensive housing.

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  6. Hey Nozzie, long time no see! Hows your DC case shiller @ 135 working out?

    Hey, as an aside, I found an old quote of yours from 18 months ago...

    "Noz said...
    I actually have friends who think the price of homes is going to stop going down and go back up come middle of 2009.

    They think the bailout money and Obama's proposals are going to help.
    January 23, 2009 5:31 PM"

    Did you congratulate your friends on being right?

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  7. Tax credits and historically low mortgage rates have failed to lift home prices so far this year. Prices fell 0.5 percent in March from February, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday.

    That marks six straight months of declines -- a sign that the housing market is going in reverse.

    "It looks a little like a double-dip already," economist Robert Shiller said in an interview. "There is a very real possibility of some more decline."

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  8. Bilderbergers two months ago said they were going to prolong the recession another year, to help usher in the IMF as the world treasury dept. You'll deny it up and down and then when it finally happens you will forget all about this post. It happens every single time the Bilderbergers leak something. It's an ongoing, cyclical testament to human stupidity.

    And for sure, all conspiracies are false lies designed to mislead you down the path into Satan's waiting maw.

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  9. I dont know much about bilderburgers, but I do like burgers from checkers. Anyone else?

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  10. Hey PanziAss....so far so good...my prediction stands since your direction is going nowhere and frankly if this the best the market can muster after everything the government can throw at it, I'd say the decline curve is still heading the right direction.

    But I'm wondering...what are you doing wasting time on these forums Pansy? I thought you'd be one the idiots out there out bidding each other...aren't you?

    If not, don't waste time...prices are only going up!

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  11. I'll stick to my Case Shiller 100 or less prophesy

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  12. Ahh Noz. I should expect nothing less from you. Sticking with your original prediction no matter how outdated it looks. Its gonna be fun torturing you each and every month from now til 2013 when your prediction goes belly up.

    Of course, I also predict you will run away long before then.

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  13. Hey Nonpartisan. Perhaps you missed it, but we are up on the 1 year anniversary of this epic thread where I came into existence as "Partisan".

    http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/05/case-shiller-price-index-march-2009.html

    Best part was 1 year ago, when you said you would BOOKMARK THIS POST AND RELOOK IN 2010. Well guess what my friend, its now may 2010. Here is the salient discussion:


    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    NONPARTISAN - Nominal bottom will be back to baseline of 100, or even less with an overshoot....This is one bell-shaped curve that will be respected.

    __________________________________
    PARTISAN - there is nothing, I repeat nothing in the data to suggest that we go below 140...

    Current futures market has us hit bottom at 160 - meaning David is being a bit generous saying we will hit 140-150 range, but not outrageous. Regardless... there is nothing that supports a nominal value of 100.

    __________________________________
    NONPARTISAN - How about I rephrase as follows: Prices will return to nominal 1997-98 levels.

    __________________________________
    PARTISAN - disagree again. If everyone is going to 1998 levels, places like DC need to go to an immediate, much more severe downturn, places like atlanta need to immediately turn to flat and places like detroit need to shoot upward... In the end, there will be some winners (DC which will never sniff 1998 again) and some losers (Detroit which will take years to recover to 1998 prices).

    __________________________________
    NONPARTISAN - Well, time will tell. However, if other markets are in fact already in the mid-1990's range, then I feel even more strongly about other areas following suit. The "It's different here" philosophy is a pile of crap....

    __________________________________
    PARTISAN - the fact that you are resorting to memes "its different here" is just sad...

    Bottom line is this, stop with all the god damn memes suggesting "its different here" isnt true. The fact of the matter is EVERY PLACE IS GOD DAMN DIFFERENT!

    _________________________________
    PARTISAN - Sorry but I cant help myself. I still cant believe you went back to the "its different here" meme. In the DC area median household income grew 30% in the last 7 years. Pretty fantastic growth - maybe the highest in the nation.

    By contrast, Detroit median household income went DOWN -1.3% over the last 7 years....

    That sure looks DIFFERENT to me. Doesnt it to you? If you agree that it is DIFFERENT, then why wouldnt we see DIFFERENT results in pricing? OR do you believe fundamentals dont matter?

    _________________________________
    NONPARTISAN - prices will of course stay much higher in DC compared to Topeka and Detroit. But they are still going back to 1990's prices, respectively. Bell shaped curve will be completed.

    __________________________________
    PARTISAN - Nonpartisan - with all due respect, you just dont get it. Simply repeating the same thing doesnt show much of an acumen for debate. Perhaps you want to advance an argument for why areas that had massive income gains are no better off than areas that had income declines. You will find we are willing to entertain outside the box theories so long as they are intellectually honest.

    That said, repeating bubble mantras wont cut it my friend!

    ________________________________
    NONPARTISAN - well, maybe because the FIRE economy is burning to the ground, and anyone with deep pockets (defined as >250K/year) is going to get them picked by Robama Hood. Bottom line is that these "massive income gains" carry as much weight as bubble mantra. The reset button has been pushed. There is no safe harbor, IMHO. Time will tell. I WILL BOOKMARK THIS POST AND RELOOK IN MAY 2010. Good luck!
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    So here we are 1 year later in May 2010 Nonpartisan. Tell me, tell us all, what have you learned?

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  14. But Pansy,

    I'm 100% correct in stating that you don't put your money where your mouth is....you should be out there bidding away with the rest of the idiots...

    So are you? Or are you wasting time here dillydabing with lowly people like the rest of us?

    I can't stress how stupid you look when you claim prices are going to go up yet you sit on the sidelines like a dolt and don't do anything about it....

    Come on! Go buy some stuff!! Make us proud!

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  15. Noz, you clearly dont remember. Earlier this year, I told you I was under contract. Well, after about a year of back and forth, that contract finally went through.

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  16. I remember very clearly....

    One I don't believe you. A year back and forth? In this "hot" market for you to take a year? Utter bullshit.

    Two, you strike me as a person who can't pass up a "good" opportunity so the fact that you're not out there selling your soul in bidding wars doesn't become you.

    So come on Pansy, show us what you're made of and start buying properties before you're priced out forever!

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  17. Noz, if if helps, it was a short sale. And 1 year was an exaggeration - it was actually closer to 7-8 months. You are entitled to believe what you want, but I will put that into the asked and answered column.

    By the way, what is the good of telling me to "put my money where my mouth is & buy" when this is the internet for gods sakes. Actions are completely untrackable. For example, I could say, I just bought one place, and another 3 while I was writing, actually I just sold 2 right now - boom, boom, boom. Maybe I lied, maybe I told the truth, you will never know.

    The one thing that IS trackable are statements. Statements like the ones Nonpartisan courageously (if foolishly IMO) made when he said not only that we get to 100, but how we get there.

    Now those statements of his are failing one by one, and he has to sit here and eat crow as I torture him again and again on how foolish he was.

    You however are a different creature. Despite your bravado of (CS gets to 135 by 2013), you refuse to explain how we get there, not even in the slightest.

    The answer you wont do so is obvious. You dont want to make predictions between here and 135 and have me laugh at you while those fail one by one.

    Instead you hope that somehow I will forget to check up on you in 2013, or that this blog will be gone in 2013. Either way, you will do whatever you can, not to make a statement that can be held against you at a later date.

    This, my friend, is the epitome of a chicken shit panzy ass. You know as well as I do, the reason you wont make any near term predictions regarding CS is that they will be used against you. Well why dont you grow some balls and make some predictions?

    Specifically, you said DC Case Shiller will get to 135 by 2013. It is now mid 2010 and CS is now at 175 and change. Please exlpain to me, to all of us, how we get there by 2013?

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    Balls in your court nozzie. Either man up and answer or continue to be my puppet and dance (around the question)

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  18. Sorry, forgot to add my name...



    Noz, if if helps, it was a short sale. And 1 year was an exaggeration - it was actually closer to 7-8 months. You are entitled to believe what you want, but I will put that into the asked and answered column.

    By the way, what is the good of telling me to "put my money where my mouth is & buy" when this is the internet for gods sakes. Actions are completely untrackable. For example, I could say, I just bought one place, and another 3 while I was writing, actually I just sold 2 right now - boom, boom, boom. Maybe I lied, maybe I told the truth, you will never know.

    The one thing that IS trackable are statements. Statements like the ones Nonpartisan courageously (if foolishly IMO) made when he said not only that we get to 100, but how we get there.

    Now those statements of his are failing one by one, and he has to sit here and eat crow as I torture him again and again on how foolish he was.

    You however are a different creature. Despite your bravado of (CS gets to 135 by 2013), you refuse to explain how we get there, not even in the slightest.

    The answer you wont do so is obvious. You dont want to make predictions between here and 135 and have me laugh at you while those fail one by one.

    Instead you hope that somehow I will forget to check up on you in 2013, or that this blog will be gone in 2013. Either way, you will do whatever you can, not to make a statement that can be held against you at a later date.

    This, my friend, is the epitome of a chicken shit panzy ass. You know as well as I do, the reason you wont make any near term predictions regarding CS is that they will be used against you. Well why dont you grow some balls and make some predictions?

    Specifically, you said DC Case Shiller will get to 135 by 2013. It is now mid 2010 and CS is now at 175 and change. Please exlpain to me, to all of us, how we get there by 2013?

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    Balls in your court nozzie. Either man up and answer or continue to be my puppet and dance (around the question).

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  19. You can put it in any column you want...I still think you're bullshitting your way through this one...nice story though...must have heard it a million times from people pushed into a corner.

    Anyway, the question still stands...how come you're not out there rabidly buying up everything you can on credit if you must?

    Now's your time Pansy, don't wait any longer...DC housing is going to make you rich beyond your wildest dreams!

    I just can't wait any longer to hear about your next bidding war and purchase...the anticipation is killing me!

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  20. Just bought 3 more while we were talking. Or if you prefer, I never bought anything, ive been a long time owner since 1955. Oh and I just made 1 million dollars today. Again, believe whatever actions you like in this unverifyable world of the internet.

    So now my precious little puppet, lets see how long I can make you dance for me. This will be attempt #2 for those of you scoring at home.

    NOZ, you said DC Case Shiller will get to 135 by 2013. It is now mid 2010 and CS is now at 175 and change. Please exlpain to me, to all of us, how we get there by 2013?

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    Cmon noz, show us how tough you are. Show us you are so confident in your 135 prediction you will show us how we get there.

    Or just keep dancing (around the question) for us, my precious little puppet.

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  21. Sure you did Pansyass...

    When you decide to tell the truth about your situation and how you really view the whole RE market, we'll talk.

    Until then, I'll stick to my projections that prices are coming down.

    Let me know when you want to stop lying....

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  22. "When you decide to tell the truth about your situation and how you really view the whole RE market, we'll talk."

    OH REALLY? If I tell you the truth of my situation, then you will answer my questions about CS???

    OK, heres the whole truth, and if I am lying, may my children die a horrible sudden death.

    Regarding my situation, I entered into a contract last fall for a 4/2 built in the mid 1980s in Fairfax county. Its a colonial in a neighborhood full of ramblers outside of Annandale. The owner bought it in 2003 for 500(something) K, and got a heloc such that he owed about 715K. He basically bent over backwards just to get out of this place, so it really was between us & his lender from day 1.

    House went on the market for 621K as a short sale. I thought it was a tad overpriced, so I made an offer for 550K. Surprisingly, the lender responded right away, but they said the offer was far too low and didnt counter. I withdrew and thought nothing more of it.

    2 months later, I saw the same house now had lis pendens on it. At this point, I called the bank and said, look, you can spend 10K in attorneys/trustees fees and commissions and get this as an REO, or you can sell it to me now and take my cash, and just to show I am serious, I am willing to resubmit my offer and even up it by 5K.

    Lender again was quick to respond, and this time countered. However, we simply couldnt get within striking distance of one another so I again withdrew the offer.

    A few weeks later, lender called me. Suddenly, they were in a frenzy to get something done now. I reiterated that I would not go above 555K but as a first timer, I promised I could buy quickly (and take advantage of the buyers bribe while at it).

    Lender agreed to 560K and we set to close within 20 days. Incredibly tight schedule but we got it done. I got a 30 year fixed at 5.125%. I was gonna put 20% down, but realized I would get an additional quarter point if I went with a traditional conforming so I ended up putting 24% down to get under the $417K cap.

    So thats the truth on my house situation. As for my view of the market, that will be the next post as I went over the 4,096 character limit.

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  23. OK for part 2, my view of the market.

    Honestly, I think I bought too early. I used to think this market would rise a bit and then just stay flat, but once it started to rise a bit, I will admit, I got a little panicky.

    Now, I am beginning to feel like this last year was nothing more than a big headfake, and we will retest the lows made last year (i.e CS gets down to 165). If this comes true, that would mean I will have overpaid by 5-7%. This should make you happy to no end.

    Note too, this is why I exaggerated when I said it took close to a year. My thinking was, this way, I could tell you I bought close to the bottom so that if we do retest, you couldnt give me shit about overpaying. Now the cats out of the bag so you have that over me too.

    I will say however, I remain resolute in my view that we will not see a CS value below 160. If we do, I will be quite bitter that I fell for the big headfake. So thats another carrot for you. If we go below 160, feel free to launch into me about how stupid I was for catching the falling knife.

    So again thats my story. All I can do to swear to you that its the truth is to again say, if I am lying about even the smallest little bit of this, may some horrible disease strike down my 2 young kids.

    You might think to yourself, how can this nutjob say that about his kids, what kind of monster is he? Thats the point. I am so serious about this, I am willing to risk some sort of "cosmic justice" if I am telling anything other than the whole truth.

    So thats the story Noz. Now, can we get to the thing that you have continued to tap dance around for the better part of 1 year now.

    You said DC Case Shiller will get to 135 by 2013. It is now mid 2010 and CS is now at 175 and change. Please exlpain to me, to all of us, how we get there by 2013?

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    Will you now answer? I suspect not, but I hold out hope so I have refrained from calling you names. Lets see if you can hold true to your word and "talk" now that I have told you my situation and view of the market.

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  24. I already answered it Pansyass...I don't know why you keep asking the same question over and over?

    Other than to deflect the topic away from your own fallacies, I don't see the reason.

    I told my prediction. That's the end of that.

    But we'll wait for your lying to subside...then continue.

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  25. Noz, don't waste your time with that idiot. He's obviously leading a very boring life. Partisan, go get yourself a popsicle....

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  26. ANON:

    You're right...he asked me the same questions months ago and has nothing else to say.

    He's obviously lying out his ass because everything about his story is bogus.

    Sorry Pansy....you'll have to stick with my prediction for now.

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  27. "I already answered it Pansyass"

    Where? I recall once you said some bullshit answer where you said the value would go to 1 then 1000 then 400 then 135.

    If you have given me a serious answer to this question on this blog ANYTIME, ANYWHERE, I will eat shit and die.

    Prove it to me Noz. Show me ONE TIME where you answered that question truthfully.

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  28. Roubini is predicting a double dip! kids put your seats belts on!

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  29. Well, our politic-ho-icians meddling in the housing markets, and the broader economy, have kicked the can down the road and delayed inevitibility. Thus, my timing is off - and I am not the first to mistime a market. Nevertheless, I have no problem putting in my can-kicking best estimates again - while firmly maintaining the CS-100 target when the deflationary forces overwhelm the forces of the welfare state, and complete the bell curve.

    So, read it and weep:

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?-170
    Where will we be in May 2011?-155
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?-140
    Where will we be in May 2012?-125
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?-99

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  30. Pansyass...you asked me this question months ago...whining like the usual bitch that you are about details on what I predict on a yearly basis. I gave you some stupid numbers just to shut your pie-hole...now you're at it again deflecting the real issue?

    Come on you moron...just admit it...you don't have the balls to follow through with your own beliefs..you've been caught lying about buying a place and are backed into a corner and don't know what to do other than scream like a 14 year old dumbass.

    PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS PANSY..BUY UP ALL THE PROPERTIES YOU CAN NOW.....DON'T MAKE EXCUSES, DON'T LIE ABOUT YOUR PURCHASES...just do it man...don't be such a chicken...bwak bwak.

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  31. My home is my dungeon. I constantly have work to do around the house. Renters, I envy you!

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  32. "Partisan said:

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?-170
    Where will we be in May 2011?-155
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?-140
    Where will we be in May 2012?-125
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?-99"

    Thank you very much Nonpartisan. While I still think these predictions are pretty stupid, I admire your COURAGE. Seriously, I do.

    Too bad I cant say the same thing about my precious little toy, Noz. To think he only says we get to 135 and yet he cant prove to be half the man NP is and provide his predictions. Perhaps his ovaries hurt too much to think that far ahead.

    So come back again my precious little toy as I want to play with you some more. Give me a response, ANY response (other than an actual answer which would shut me up), to this question.

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    Now dance puppet, DANCE!!!

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  33. I love Partisan's post, above: "Honestly, I think I bought too early. I used to think this market would rise a bit and then just stay flat, but once it started to rise a bit, I will admit, I got a little panicky."

    If you trust media figures who offer only self-serving information, how did you expect to survive in the real world? What will you use to make sound, future decisions -- if you can't trust anything that's available to you now?

    At what point do you reach for something new?

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  34. ANON;

    That's because he's lying...he never bought anything...he doesn't have the balls to.

    Partisan, you're known as what many call people like you....a loser.

    Thanks for playing...now go find my post that answered your questions and shut your pie-hole already.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Bwahahaha - dance beeatch, dance!

    Once again for the masses Noz:

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    Spin baby spin!

    ReplyDelete
  36. Dear god, its a battle to the death to the most annoying people of all time!

    Partisan, its obvious Noz wont answer the question, now STFU!

    Noz, either answer the question or STFU!

    ReplyDelete
  37. I like how everyone argues semantics and past figures....and yet prices have dropped and will continue to drop for probably the next 20-25 years.

    ReplyDelete
  38. ANON:May 27, 2010 11:40 AM

    I did answer his question months ago....he's just being a fucking idiot as usual. Back then I gave him bogus numbers just to shut his stupid parroting mouth shut.

    ANON: Keep in mind...Pansyass does this every time he's backed into a corner...when he's caught in a lie or doesn't know how to answer someone else's question, he begins this form of question deflection...it's effective because everyone gets tired of him and then the thread dies away. He's done this many many many times because he can never answer anyone's question.

    It's clear that he never ever bought a house...he's been lying for months about it. Every time I'm posed the question about why he's not out there buying up all properties, he brings on this form of attack. He's never bought and never will. He can't put his money where his mouth is and he's pushed in a corner right now with his thumb up his ass and doesn't know what else to do. He's used to this fetal position because he's been there many times.

    I'm done with this clown. It's irrelevant what monthly values are...I gave him a predicted value for the future and that's what matters...the rest on his part is fluff.

    BUT LET ME HIGHLIGHT....he's a liar...so don't take this troll seriously.

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  39. Noz - serious question, what answer, if any, could I ever give you that would cause you to answer my timeline predictions question?

    I tell you I was scared and you dont answer

    I tell you I bought, and you call me a liar and dont answer.

    Again, what answer, if any, will satisfy you?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Your whole story doesn't make sense Partisan. It's a big lie...do you know why? Because it differs so much from legitimate examples from legitimate people. Your whole story is a lie.

    I told you already...and I'm serious...and we've been over this so many times....the details are not important to me. It's the direction and final outcome that counts. Your persistent question about month to month (first it was year to year...now you're just nitpicking because you're back in a corner and can't get out) are pointless because it's irrelevant.

    The financial system, unemployment, etc don't work that quickly...so for you to ask this question is just plain stupid.

    You already know where I stand...so just stop with the stupid smoke and mirrors routine and stop lying about your activities...no part of your story makes an iota of sense.

    You got caught with your pants down and don't know what else to do...sorry mate...better luck next time.

    ReplyDelete
  41. "I told you already...and I'm serious...and we've been over this so many times....the details are not important to me."

    Then take a flyer god damn it! This is an anonymous blog for christ sake! Post some "guesstimates", and if you are wrong you are wrong. Life will go on!

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Sorry mate...suck on it. I gave you an answer already...deal with it.

    AND STOP LYING.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Can't figure out how to reach you guys about REBarCamp in Raleigh on 9.10.10 - would like for you to come. @isellmoney

    ReplyDelete
  44. Well, I for one have the stones to make some predictions.

    Nov 2010 = 164
    May 2011 = 160
    Nov 2011 = 152
    May 2012 = 150 (bottom)
    Nov 2012 = 150
    May 2013 = 155

    Thats my story and im stickin to it!

    ReplyDelete
  45. Oh, and Partisan, maybe youve done this before, but I dont see where you put down your predictions.

    Where do YOU think we will be in May & Nov in each of those years? You cant call others "gutless" unless you can answer the question yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Here's something to think about. I find it foolish to spend 40% of your monthly income on a house built more than 50 years ago with bedrooms so small you can only fit a bed and nightstand. As my cash reserves overflow with surplus funds, I say to all of you potential home buyers "be very careful what you wish for" because I know of many unhappy homeowners stuck with the "home of their dreams."

    ReplyDelete
  47. Personally, I think its a bit foolhardy to come up with a specific prediction as its so easy to be off by a point or two. Thats why I have come up with a range, so I dont need to account for seasonality & temporary factors that accelerate or supress home prices.

    For the timeperiod in question, (present -- 2013) I see DC at 180 +/- 10 points, and most (if not all) of the price swings are seasonal and not real. Put another way, prices may have hit bottom, but we wont see appreciation for quite some time.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Noz, 12:23 here. I agree with you that Partisan is probably a liar. To be honest, he seems borderline sociopathic to me. On this point, we have no argument here.

    But lets not kid ourselves here either. He has you by the short hairs on this issue and he knows it. Therefore, respectully, I reiterate what I said before. Either answer his question or STFU!

    Also, James, new post please. Maybe this will get these guys to shut up!

    ReplyDelete
  49. Oops, I just say James has a new post up. Now everybody STFU!

    ReplyDelete
  50. May 27, 2010 4:03 PM ANON:

    That's what I'm trying to tell you dude...I did answer his questions.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Well then just repost it for goodness sakes!

    Sociopartisan, would that satisfy you? Would that make you STFU if Noz reposted his answer to your question(s)?

    Honestly, the two of you are no better than my 5 year olds!!!

    Anon @ 12:23/4:05

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  52. "Would that make you STFU if Noz reposted his answer to your question(s)?"

    Yes. Yes it would.

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  53. You've got bigger problems than my answers Partisan.

    I already gave em to you so go dig and find it.

    Good luck...you're on your own.

    Oh..and stop lying and changing the subject.

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  54. OK you two idiots, I looked it up. Here is what Noz said last year...



    "For the record, I told you my result prediction. It's 135 as I've always said. What happens between then and now I DON'T CARE....so why are you making such a big issue of it?????? Probably because you have no argument left.

    But to the clown, here you go:

    2010 - 155
    2011 - 135
    2012 - 115
    2013 - 110
    2014 - 100
    2015 - 50
    2016 - 1"


    Clearly there is a bit of dickin around here especially the numbers after 2014. However, he said "its 135 as ive always said" and he clearly indicated 135 by 2011.

    So thats it boys problem solved. Noz, personally, if I were you I find 135 by 2011 a bit agressive and you may want to amend it, but if you want to stand by it, so be it.

    So are we done here? Are we ready to STFU. I sure as hell hope so.

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  55. If you also notice from my post earlier, I said I gave him bogus numbers just to shut his pie hole.

    But yes...I'm done....if DC falls off the map I couldn't give a rat's ass.

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  56. Noz, bogus as to the whole thing? If so, I hate to say it, but I can see why he keeps bringing this up. If thats the case, I still think he has you by the short hairs bud.

    Look, I dont mean to give you a hard time. Im anon I dont have a feeling strong enough to make a prediction I would stand behind. But still, this issue comes up over and over and over again, and I think I speak for many of us when I say we are SICK OF IT.

    So to the extent any of it is legit, please do us all a favor and say so.

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  57. Nice try...I wouldn't be surprised if ANON is Partisan....

    Game Over.

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  58. Actually, I was beginning to think the same thing of you. You know there are these trolls who have nothing but time on their hands and who whip up fake controverseys only to see if they can draw other people into the fray. Is that what you and "Partisan" are doing here?

    Is that why Partisan has no registered name so you can quickly toggle back and forth between him and your alter ego personality "Noz"?

    In fact, what about some of the other "anonymous" posters here? Now that I look at it, I see three back and forth posts (Noz-anon-Noz) timestamped May 26 at 6:41, 6:42 and 6:43PM... Why, thats AWFUL coincidental timing!!! In fact, given that it takes at least 15 to 30 seconds to type a post, much less finding a response and posting a response so quickly is nothing short of a miracle!!!

    So is that your game here Noztisan? Are you so bored that you spent the last 2 days creating sockpuppets and alter-egos just to see if you could dupe someone into believing it was a real exchange?

    It wouldnt be the first time. Chuck Ponzi used to post here till the trolls punked him one to many times and he left for good. So is that it? Is it you again troll? Am I now your latest victim?

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  59. Now I know for sure you're Partisan...

    Thanks for playing.

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  60. Ha Ha - you got punked.

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  61. Ummmm...yeah ok....whatever floats your boat you dolt.

    By the way, look up the definition..you didn't get past first base.

    Better luck next time Pansy...now stop lying.

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  62. I think its funny that housing is not recovering after all the effort. Eventually I will be able to buy a home! I cant wait!

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  63. Wow - some real tinfoilhat mentality going on here anon.

    No, Noz is not me, and I am not a sockpuppet of Noz. Perhaps you are just confused. I am afterall, his puppet master. It really is the funniest thing. All I have to do to conjure him up is say:

    "Hey Noz:

    Where will we be in Nov 2010?
    Where will we be in May 2011?
    Where will we be in Nov 2011?
    Where will we be in May 2012?
    Where will we be in Nov 2012?"

    Soon enough, my puppet Noz, currently slumped over & lifeless in the corner will SPRING into action! Soon enough he will return to entertain us, by dancing around the question, hopefully calling me a liar, a panzy etc.

    Watch. Its almost like clockwork. Within 24-48 hrs, my puppet will return to entertain us by not answering the question.

    Cmon Noz...dont fail me now!!!

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  64. Tax credit expiration = lower demand = lower prices

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  65. Partisan,

    Prices keep falling though huh? Must suck to own a home that you bought in 2006....Im sure those who bought feel better about it because you are trolling another poster on this blog though.

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  66. Sorry to say, there wont be any housing recovery.

    Lets wake up.

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