For those who have accounts and log in:
As far as I'm concerned, you have complete free speech on this blog, except when it comes to posting link spam. (Note, however, that David is less tolerant of foul language than I am.)
For those who choose a consistent username, but don't log in:
As far as I'm concerned, you will usually have free speech on this blog, but if you are nasty toward others, post link spam, or I suspect you are either trolling or engaging in sockpuppetry, I may delete your comment.
For those who insist on posting as "Anonymous":
If you want to hold other commenters accountable for their previous statements on this blog, then at least have the courage to choose a consistent and unique username for yourself (other than "Anonymous") so you can be held accountable as well. If you make snide remarks towards others, your comment may be deleted. If your comment is offensive or disagreeable in general, your comment may be deleted. If you attempt to hold others accountable for their previous statements while you cowardly hide behind the username "Anonymous", your comment will definitely be deleted. If you post link spam, I will delete your comment. If I suspect you are either trolling or engaging in sockpuppetry, I may delete your comment.
In short, the five seconds you save by not using a unique and consistent username will substantially increase the odds that your comment will be deleted.
All suspected link spam will be deleted.
Link spammers frequently post comments on this and other blogs. Since most blogs use nofollow tags in the comments section, link spammers are mostly wasting their time. However, their actions are still annoying for blog owners and blog readers.
Link spammers often try to make their comments look legitimate, which can make it difficult for me to distinguish between legitimate and illegitimate comments. Thus, I may sometimes unintentionally delete legitimate comments when they contain links to other websites.
Suspected trolls and sockpuppets may be deleted.
I find it extremely difficult to distinguish between trolls and regular commenters who just happen to be disagreeable. Sockpuppets are also hard to spot. I will try to err on the side of free speech, but I may occasionally delete a legitimate comment that appears to be from a troll or sockpuppet. The easiest way to avoid having a comment deleted is to be nice.
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First to comment!
ReplyDeleteWay to put a stand and a statement on commenting. One of my own posts had something like 20+ spam posts.
I don't understand how spam comments even promote the scam it is trying to sell.
Agree.
ReplyDeleteAnd now it is time to Watch-and-Learn again - beginning August 2010, you will see a RAPID decline in home prices resume - there will be no immunozone.
Bring it on.
Ahh Nonpartisan - still sticking with hamfisted predictions after all this time?
ReplyDeleteGlad you are here because we are coming up on the 1 year anniversary of when your inane comments about DC case shiller hitting "100 or less" inspired me (after this post) to become "partisan" and remind you of your foolisness.
Best part was 1 year ago, when you said you would BOOKMARK THIS POST AND RELOOK IN 2010. Well guess what my friend, its now may 2010. Here is the salient discussion:
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NONPARTISAN - Nominal bottom will be back to baseline of 100, or even less with an overshoot....This is one bell-shaped curve that will be respected.
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PARTISAN - there is nothing, I repeat nothing in the data to suggest that we go below 140...
Current futures market has us hit bottom at 160 - meaning David is being a bit generous saying we will hit 140-150 range, but not outrageous. Regardless... there is nothing that supports a nominal value of 100.
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NONPARTISAN - How about I rephrase as follows: Prices will return to nominal 1997-98 levels.
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PARTISAN - disagree again. If everyone is going to 1998 levels, places like DC need to go to an immediate, much more severe downturn, places like atlanta need to immediately turn to flat and places like detroit need to shoot upward... In the end, there will be some winners (DC which will never sniff 1998 again) and some losers (Detroit which will take years to recover to 1998 prices).
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NONPARTISAN - Well, time will tell. However, if other markets are in fact already in the mid-1990's range, then I feel even more strongly about other areas following suit. The "It's different here" philosophy is a pile of crap....
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PARTISAN - the fact that you are resorting to memes "its different here" is just sad...
Bottom line is this, stop with all the god damn memes suggesting "its different here" isnt true. The fact of the matter is EVERY PLACE IS GOD DAMN DIFFERENT!
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PARTISAN - Sorry but I cant help myself. I still cant believe you went back to the "its different here" meme. In the DC area median household income grew 30% in the last 7 years. Pretty fantastic growth - maybe the highest in the nation.
By contrast, Detroit median household income went DOWN -1.3% over the last 7 years....
That sure looks DIFFERENT to me. Doesnt it to you? If you agree that it is DIFFERENT, then why wouldnt we see DIFFERENT results in pricing? OR do you believe fundamentals dont matter?
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NONPARTISAN - prices will of course stay much higher in DC compared to Topeka and Detroit. But they are still going back to 1990's prices, respectively. Bell shaped curve will be completed.
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PARTISAN - Nonpartisan - with all due respect, you just dont get it. Simply repeating the same thing doesnt show much of an acumen for debate. Perhaps you want to advance an argument for why areas that had massive income gains are no better off than areas that had income declines. You will find we are willing to entertain outside the box theories so long as they are intellectually honest.
That said, repeating bubble mantras wont cut it my friend!
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NONPARTISAN - well, maybe because the FIRE economy is burning to the ground, and anyone with deep pockets (defined as >250K/year) is going to get them picked by Robama Hood. Bottom line is that these "massive income gains" carry as much weight as bubble mantra. The reset button has been pushed. There is no safe harbor, IMHO. Time will tell. I WILL BOOKMARK THIS POST AND RELOOK IN MAY 2010. Good luck!
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So here we are 1 year later in May 2010 Nonpartisan. Tell me, tell us all, what have you learned?
Sorry - heres the full thread in case you want to review it. I encourage others to read it as well - its a real laugher.
ReplyDeletehttp://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/05/case-shiller-price-index-march-2009.html
And to think, at the time case shiller had hit what is looking more and more likely to be its nominal bottom of 165. Today its up at 176 (up 5% YOY).
I still think its POSSIBLE (unlikely, but possible) that we hit 160, but as time marches on, last years bottom looks more and more permanent all the time.
Realtors will tell you that the house is charming and interest rates are going to go up so you better buy now. I have heard that nonsense back in. 2005. Really what they are saying is buy so I can make some money off you. Realtors cannot give you unbiased representation. The relationship between a realtor and a buyer has an inherent conflict of interest. If the buyer does not buy, the realtor does not make any money. Actually, realtors ultimately represent sellers. Be very careful when buying a home. Hire a lawyer!
ReplyDelete"NONPARTISAN - Nominal bottom will be back to baseline of 100, or even less with an overshoot"
ReplyDeleteWow. No offense dude, but you are seriously delusional if you think DC will get to 100 or less.
God, I wish they'd stop calling the regional RE market the "Washington DC Market". I can never tell if folks are referring to DC proper, or that aggregate mess that includes Manassas and Dumfries.
ReplyDeleteReally, those markets have less to do with DC's RE market than the five boroughs and San Fransisco.
It's like we're stuck in the same argument over and over again:
Bear: "The DC market is going to tank."
Bull: "No it's not. Most of the neighborhoods in DC actually going to do quite well."
Bear: "No, when I say 'DC market', I don't mean the real estate market *in* DC. I mean the greater Dale City / Dumfries / Manassass triangle."
Bull: "Oh, yeah. Well, sure, that's going down the shitter."
Why not call everything *except* the close-in gentrifying neighborhoods the "Delmarva Market", and we'll call the Immunozone the "DC Market"?
Why not call everything *except* the close-in gentrifying neighborhoods the "Delmarva Market", and we'll call the Immunozone the "DC Market"?
ReplyDeleteBears dont think that way. Bear rule #1 is that no place is "different". Hence, bears were destined to believe the immunozone was not different and would suffer huge declines. Time did prove them wrong and now they have all run away.
This was a good blog post. Too bad these anonymous cowards are still hiding despite it.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Anonymous comment:
"realtors ultimately represent sellers"
They don't represent sellers either, since their goal is to sell the property at any price no matter the loss to the seller.
In fact, realtors only want a sale, regardless of cost or benefit to buyer or seller.
There needs to be a lawsuit letting non-realtors post properties to the multiple listing service. That is the only reason we need them, and it is NOT enough of a reason to pay 6 percent to them.
By the way, there is a way in the blog profile settings to disallow anonymous comments.
ReplyDeleteOne click and they are gone.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteI have been doing Black Hat SEO for a number of years. In regards to you blog and information you are seeking to remedy. You can make it where you must log into an account in order to post a comment this will completely eliminate all spammers. Second I don't believe you understand NO-Follow and how it works. Spammers know that No-follow only takes itself into consideration if you have no backlinks yourself(from another site to this one). also if you have any anchor tags outbound your nofollow again doesn't work. Which means your site will still be creating "Link Juice". My suggestion is to place meta info such as NO INDEX tags (this will hurt your site as well) it will stop spammers tho.
ReplyDeleteI am a Realtor with a conscience. I care about my buyers and sellers. I have encouraged buyers NOT TO BUY, when I suspect they are getting a bad deal. I encourage sellers to sell on their own, if I know they can and it will be in their best interest. I focus most of my energy on helping distressed homeowners nowadays. Not all "Realtors" are the same.
ReplyDeleteAll real estate is local and so it is with the housing bubble. People at my real estate investment association thought I was crazy when I was preaching that run up was unsustainable.
ReplyDeleteI believe here in Orlando, that we are in for another 10% drop at least. The lowest priced homes only 5%, but the higher priced homes will drop even more.
If interest rates zoom up all bets are off.
Regarding your new comment policy...
ReplyDeleteNot sure what kind of spam comments you've been getting but you refer to having a hard time distinguishing whether or not they are in fact spam (and mention that you may sometimes delete legit comments). Which leads me to believe there are people leaving comments that pertain and add some value to your posts. Search engines like to see activity, comments on your posts are activity - it can help your own rankings. My suggestion is not to worry about whether or not someone is looking for a link, but to determine if the comment is relevant or not.
Here's an example...how do you know whether or not I'm just posting this to get a link? Even if that were the reason, my comment is on topic, adds value and activity. Something to think about.
Anyway, onto real estate...Todd Hutcheson brings up a good point. "If interest rates zoom up all bets are off."
Rates are around 4.5% and the market is STILL in the hole. Imagine what will happen when rates start to inch up. I remember when they hit 5.25%, give or take, when the boom was on and everyone was nuts over how low they were.
Problem solved, Justin. I just re-posted your comment without the spam link.
ReplyDeleteMost spammers' comments are barely relevant to the post they are commenting on.