Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bits bucket

While I'm on vacation, consider the comments section of this post an open discussion forum. Feel free to post any housing news, thoughts, or links you'd like.

37 comments:

  1. Anyone want to discuss Case Shiller results today?

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  2. @Anon - I just saw 'em...and yep, yet again (though by less than previously), DCs October CS numbers are bucking the national trend. It really looks like they will keep going up, or at worst, plateau where they are.

    I'll be interested to see how the change in control of the house affects things - particularly given the WaPo's report today that the FedGov pay freezes are now a two year freeze. I don't think there's any doubt that DeeCee is "different" only because it's home to the recession-proof FedGov, so gov workers (contractors and employees) have been insulated.

    I personally think the Republicans are full of s*** and are nothing more than "concern trolls" about the deficit (as revealed by their willingness to make the tax deal), but if they do get in any way serious about curtailing spending, it may really start to affect the area.

    I'm not holding my breath - in particular, defense (and security theater) is a sacred cow for the GOP and that's the gov't spending that has the most direct impact on the local economy, so I think the cash will continue to flow. If anything, it will increase as they insist on "privatizing" for "efficiency" (ie, more efficient taxpayer fleecing).

    Still, while this is good news for a couple of people I know who bought in the city in the early/mid bubble, I wouldn't get too cocky as I believe the DC market is not as solid as it looks.

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  3. Regarding Shiller, the Post reported that rents were rising:

    >In local apartment buildings, rents jumped 8.2 percent -- about twice the long-term average -- to $1,643 this year as vacancies disappeared, according to a study to be released next week by Delta Associates, a Alexandria-based research firm. The area's vacancy rates are the second-lowest in the nation, after New York City.<

    High rents and low vacancies, must have a lot renters thinking about buying, but the latest Shiller report will likely keep them from entering the market, so the waiting game continues.

    But the bottom must be close.

    If rents are really taking off, then the cost of renting is going to begin to cancel out the diminishing risk of buying, at least in this area.

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  4. If rents "take off," then that means there is less demand for housing. It's part of the herd shift from the failed ownership society George W promoted to renting. Owning a home is a headache.

    Signed, former homewoner.

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  5. Re: Case Shiller - for the record, its now at 186.67.

    Kinda pressed for time, but I do want to tell NOZ ( predicted CS hits 130 by 2013) and NONPARTISAN (predicted CS hits 100 by 2013) one very important message....

    CAW! CAW! CAW! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

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  6. Is it 2013 yet?

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  7. See those little bumps at the end of the curve, that stopped the precipitous drop from the peak, and messed up the bell shape? I call them "can kickers". Delusionists see them as a nice stable plateau.

    HA!

    As Anon above so astutely pointed out - it ain't 2013 yet, suckers....

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  8. WOOOOOOOOO WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

    Here comes that shadow inventory!!!!

    U.S. home foreclosures jumped in the third quarter and banks' efforts to keep borrowers in their homes dropped as the housing market continues to struggle, U.S. bank regulators said on Wednesday.

    The regulators said one reason for the increase in foreclosures is that banks have "exhausted" options for keeping many delinquent borrowers in their homes through programs such as loan modifications.

    Newly initiated foreclosures increased to 382,000 in the third quarter, a 31.2 percent jump over the previous quarter and a 3.7 percent rise from a year ago, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in their quarterly mortgage report.

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  9. And yet, foreclosures in the DC area are down vs last year.

    OH HOW SAD FOR YOU!!!

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  10. I don't live in the DC area you fool!

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  11. Good for you then. For the rest of those who come to this blog where we pay "some special attention to the Washington DC area housing bubble"

    OH HOW SAD FOR YOU!!! BWAHAHAHAHAH!!!

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  12. Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA.

    Blow me gay boy!

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  13. Here I'll ask again to Partisan...

    Is it 2013 yet?

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  14. "Anon said...Here I'll ask again to Partisan...Is it 2013 yet?"

    You know, its funny - if I make a stupid decision, I will make amends as quickly as possible so as to not look like an idiot for an extended period of time.

    Contrast that with our friend, NONPARTISAN, who continues to dig in his heels further and further. Evidence continues to mount that DC will never, I repeat NEVER hit 100 again, yet he continues to prolong his agony by following the #1 rule of internet bubble blogging - never, ever, EVER admit you were wrong.

    Thankfully for me who relishes schadenfreude, this gives me a platform to continue to serve as a painful reminder, month after month, after month, how truly and utterly wrong he was.

    For example, lets take his old predictions that is now very near term:

    ***************************
    "NONPARTISAN said...Ill give you my predictions:

    Nov '09 - 165
    Nov 2010 - 145
    Nov 2011 - 125
    Nov 2012 - 112 (and new president)
    Nov 2013 - 100

    THEN we can start talking about the bottom.

    W.A.L (watch and learn)

    August 18, 2009 9:11 PM"

    http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/08/dow-jones-home-prices-have-not-bottomed.html
    ****************************

    Putting aside the arrogance of him telling us to W.A.L., lets see how he has done. For the record, case shiller values for the timeperiods noted in that post of his were as follows:

    Feb 09 - 168
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179 (vs his predicted 165)
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ??? (vs his predicted 145)

    Now looking at that trend, what are the odds we drop 42 points next month and prove he was right all along? Do we have to "wait til Nov 2010" or does even he admit that Nov 2010 will come in far far above his expected value of 145???

    Dont get me wrong - its not good to change your predictions the moment they dont look good - they could always turn around a few months later and then you look like a flip floping idiot. Still, when is it safe to conclude on a long term prediction "it aint gonna happen" and admit as much?

    Which brings us back to our old buddy NONARTISAN. I am assuming even he knows we wont hit 100 by 2013, and he is simply following blogging rule #1 and stubbornly refusing to admit he was wrong. However, there is another possibility...it could be that he is simply so stupid that he does not yet see that hitting 100 by 2013 (a rate of decline as or more severe than what we saw from 2006-2009) is a near impossibility?

    The real irony of this is had he simply admitted he was wrong 18 months ago, I would have long since lost interest in him. Instead, we are still here, pondering is he just being stubborn as so many bloggers are, or is he actually so stupid as to believe he can still be right?

    I dont know, but thankfully it isnt 2013 yet so we have plenty of time to find out!!!

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  15. Oh and as a personal message to NONPARTISAN...I have no delusions as to think (even if this website is still here) that you will be here in 2013. Most likely, you will be like NOZ who apparently has seen the light and has run away for good before he has to face his predictions going belly up.

    I will admit that not having him around and rubbing this in his face is frustrating. Fortunately I found him on another blog and was able to give him the message I will give to you below.

    So again before you run away as 2013 draws closer, just let it be known, as it was on that fateful day back in May 2009 when you arrogantly told us to WAL Watch and Learn...I was right and you were wrong.

    If and when you do leave, I hope you think of me each and every month as case shiller comes out and you see how utterly and terribly wrong you were. I most certainly will, thinking of what you said and laughing...oh god how I will laugh.

    Also, when that day comes in 2013 and there is no longer any doubt, even if there is no more Bubble Meter site on which to post, I will utter those 4 simple words...the sweetest words in the world for someone who loves schadenfreude as much as I do...

    I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!

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  16. Partisan, is this your biggest achievement? What a small and pathetic human being you are.

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  17. Oh boy! Guess what is climbing? You guessed it! Mortgage rates.

    The average 30-year mortgage rate rose this week to 4.86% Still low by historical standards but for home values that have been based on low interest rates, a troubling sign for homeowners. As risk appetite increases and the demand for long-term bonds decreases, mortgage rates will rise putting further downward pressure on home values. Enjoy the show!

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  18. Anonypussy - funny thing is, I actually have a rich and full life outside of this my online persona. I may even be a personal friend of yours in real life.

    BTW, I love how you say "enjoy the show" as if something "big" is going to happen. Is that really what you believe anonypussy?

    If so, why dont you care to quantify it with the end all be all that we all care about the most - price.

    Specifically, what is "the show" you describe going to do to DC area case shiller? Fill in the blanks so we can all watch "the show" at home:

    Feb 09 - 168
    Mar 09 - 166 (this was bottom pussy)
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ???
    Feb 11 - ???
    May 11 - ???
    Aug 11 - ???
    Nov 11 - ???
    Feb 12 - ???
    May 12 - ???
    Aug 12 - ???
    Nov 12 - ???
    Feb 13 - ???
    May 13 - ???
    Aug 13 - ???
    Nov 13 - ???

    So tell us more about "the show" anonypussy. Are we going to break below the March 2009 level, proving that you were smart to be here lecturing us on the eve of 2011? Show us anonypussy, show us.

    If I may, I will make a prediction here and you will not fill in the blanks above. Instead you will thrash and flail about, call me an asshole, go off on tangents, etc. refusing to give any serious number whatsoever.

    So maybe that was "the show" that you were talking about..."the show" is as you tapdance around the question, tippity tap, tippity tap, tap tap tap!!! Or perhaps the show is you running away as fast as your little legs can carry you.

    So come now anonypussy, come put on a show and entertain us!!!

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  19. Partisan, stop tickling me because my neighbors may think that I am this online persona who vents his frustrations in a hosuing blog.

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  20. Nope - sorry. Im not gonna let you off that easy. I want to tickle you some more...

    Cmon anonypussy tell me more about "the show" as it relates to home values. Or if it hurts your ovaries too much to do so, please continue to tippity tap tippity tap around the question.

    So whats it gonna be? Gonna dance some more for us.

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  21. Meow Partisan, meow

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  22. OK Partisan,

    Since you're not answering the question I asked about is it 2013 yet....I'll pretend I'm you and then I'll give you my answer.

    ME: Hey PARTISAN...is it 2013 yet?

    PARTISAN: No it's not...

    ME: OK...then revisit your stupid prediction in 2013.

    Lest we remember what happened in two years from 2006 and 2008 to home prices.

    Until then....just STFU.

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  23. Partisan must be a frustrated real estate agent who is making a fraction of what he made during the bubble years. Home prices in the DC area are overvalued and rising interest rates will expose that. Enjoy the show!

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  24. Anonnypussy - to answer your question is it 2013 yet, the answer is NO. I fully admit, its only halftime. Still, the reason why I am crowing??? The score at halftime is 63-7.

    Do you want to make that bet that Nonpartisan is going to come from behind to win (CS @ 100 by 2013)? I think not. The correct play would be to concede it isnt going to happen, and then hope I lose interest in you.

    So we'll put your question into the "asked and answered" column. Still, I will not shut up. I was crowing at 31-7. Im still crowing at 63-7. If you want me to STFU, you can do so. Show me, anonypussy... Show me how prescient you are... fill in the following:

    Feb 09 - 168
    Mar 09 - 166 (this was bottom annonypussy)
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ???
    Feb 11 - ???
    May 11 - ???
    Aug 11 - ???
    Nov 11 - ???
    Feb 12 - ???
    May 12 - ???
    Aug 12 - ???
    Nov 12 - ???
    Feb 13 - ???
    May 13 - ???
    Aug 13 - ???
    Nov 13 - ???

    Thats all it takes to shut me up Anonnypussy. Fill in the answers above.

    Absent that, just keep spinnin and flailin around, refusing to answer the question at all costs. Ive got all day...

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  25. "Anonymous said...
    Partisan must be a frustrated real estate agent who is making a fraction of what he made during the bubble years."

    Maybe so. If you want, I will concede that. I am destitute.


    "Home prices in the DC area are overvalued and rising interest rates will expose that"

    They will huh? Show me. Show me how they will be exposed:

    Feb 09 - 168
    Mar 09 - 166 (this was bottom annonypussy)
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ???
    Feb 11 - ???
    May 11 - ???
    Aug 11 - ???
    Nov 11 - ???
    Feb 12 - ???
    May 12 - ???
    Aug 12 - ???
    Nov 12 - ???
    Feb 13 - ???
    May 13 - ???
    Aug 13 - ???
    Nov 13 - ???

    Keep dancin (around the question) bitch!!!

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  26. I went from annonypussy to bitch. Your intellectual level and lack of class is evident from you trashy mouth. Where were you raised Partisan? On a farm? You are probably one of those relocates who came from a small town and got a job in real estate because you are really good at lying to people. Your existence is very sad.

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  27. I've followed this conversation on and off for a while (i.e. I mean the blog) and a while back, Partisan claimed he/she bought a place.

    By his/her tone, it's very evident that A) it's a lie...he/she never bought anything and is extremely frustrated OR B) he/she did buy something and is very bitter about paying too much for a property that is clearly in a bubble market.

    Any idiot/child can figure out that there's no foundation for price hikes and in a market where credit is very limited, prices far outstrip incomes, tax credits are done, and unemployment is on the rise nationwide...yes in DC too, it's imbecilic to think prices of homes will be sustained.

    As another anon said, Partisan doesn't seem to remember how quickly things can change.

    Yes...keep dancin indeed Partisan. Within two years people went from acting like arrogant douchebags to hostile dumbasses being evicted and filing for bankruptcy.

    Your stupid repetitive postings have no bearing on anything other than creating a strawman.

    It only makes you look extremely stupid because you have as little knowledge of the future as anyone else. But given what happened in the past, it's more likely things will head south before they head up north.

    So as the other anon suggested, since it's not 2013 yet, for your own sake Partisan...keep your clap trap shut until 2013. I predict by then, you'll have disappeared somewhere in disgrace.

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  28. Anonypussies - I bought, about 5% above the bottom. So why am I still here?

    It started out kinda benevolent. When NONPARTISAN said we were going back to CS 100, I knew that was absurd - I figured I would stick around to contradict that sentiment.

    That said, all the reasonable people have left. The only people who still post here regularly are permabears. This is where the troll in me kicks in.

    At this point, I dont care about doing any good for anyone, largely because you permabears have unreasonable expectations to begin with. I know because I was a bear at one time (yet not a permabear).

    Thus the main reason I am here is just to torque you. Just to twist the knife in a little deeper...

    Also, to expose you as nothing but a paper tiger. You use lots of bravado, using words like "stampede" and "crash", yet when I ask you to put that into a numerical value that we can all understand, you run away as fast as your little legs can carry you.

    Also, as I like to fight and NONPARTISAN is at least smart enough to not go after me. You are not, so its still fun for me to be here.

    Call me a bitch, call me an asshole, call me a realtard, call me an anguished homeover, call me whatever you want - I really, really, really dont care.

    What I do care about is poking you with a stick and watch you not answer and flail about in anger. For example, watch this.


    Feb 09 - 168
    Mar 09 - 166 (this was bottom annonypussy)
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ???
    Feb 11 - ???
    May 11 - ???
    Aug 11 - ???
    Nov 11 - ???
    Feb 12 - ???
    May 12 - ???
    Aug 12 - ???
    Nov 12 - ???
    Feb 13 - ???
    May 13 - ???
    Aug 13 - ???
    Nov 13 - ???

    Dance for me boy...dance!!!

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  29. Not even the former Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., was able to escape the housing mess unscathed. The former chief of Goldman Sachs —who was tasked with righting the economy during the depths of the credit crisis —sold his Washington home at a $1 million loss last week.

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  30. But how did Paulson lose 1 million? I thought DC was different from all other places? HOW ABOUT ANSWERING THAT ONE PARTISAN PUSSY?

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  31. "But how did Paulson lose 1 million?"

    Are we playing simple to answer questions? OK. How about:

    1. DC was a huge bubble.
    2. It popped.
    3. He bought near the top, and sold near the bottom.

    Pretty simple huh? OK now YOUR turn to answer a simple question. What do you think is going to happen? Fill in the blanks for DC case shiller:

    Feb 09 - 168
    Mar 09 - 166 (this was bottom annonypussy)
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ???
    Feb 11 - ???
    May 11 - ???
    Aug 11 - ???
    Nov 11 - ???
    Feb 12 - ???
    May 12 - ???
    Aug 12 - ???
    Nov 12 - ???
    Feb 13 - ???
    May 13 - ???
    Aug 13 - ???
    Nov 13 - ???

    That or keep dancing around the question to our amusement.

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  32. Partisan,

    No need to lie...you don't own any property...it's OK...really it is.

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  33. Partisan, you said you bought a place 5% from the bottom. What kind of property did you buy and and where did you buy? Don't be a pussy and provide your address.

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  34. OK, im a renter then. Anyway, back to the question.

    What do you think is going to happen? Fill in the blanks for DC case shiller:

    Feb 09 - 168
    Mar 09 - 166 (this was bottom annonypussy)
    Aug 09 - 180
    Nov 09 - 179
    Feb 10 - 177
    May 10 - 183
    Aug 10 - 188
    Oct 10 - 187
    Nov 10 - ???
    Feb 11 - ???
    May 11 - ???
    Aug 11 - ???
    Nov 11 - ???
    Feb 12 - ???
    May 12 - ???
    Aug 12 - ???
    Nov 12 - ???
    Feb 13 - ???
    May 13 - ???
    Aug 13 - ???
    Nov 13 - ???

    Just keep dancing your heart out. Go Billy Elliott, Go!!!

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  35. Partisan, I used to enjoy the back and forth between you and Nonpartisan. Am I right that the tone is much more vitriolic now? It is coming off as unpleasant, perhaps I can politely request you tone it down a couple notches?

    On a related topic, I found this pretty disturbing on its own:
    "But if the federal government cuts back on private defense contractors, as Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates proposed in August, that's a "much bigger deal," because defense contracting jobs are more than double the size of the federal payroll, Fuller said."

    From:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/30/AR2010123002103.html?sid=ST2010123002242

    But also I wonder what effect Federal austerity measures could have on house prices...the sharp needle floating around the NoVA real estate bubble (if there is one)?

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  36. Ok partisan, how many dead birds are there in Arkansas? Don't be a pussy. Answer the question!

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  37. Following up on my previous comment, the GOP-led House may be cutting federal work force...that would certainly put a damper on area home prices...

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/federal-eye/2011/01/gop_lawmaker_wants_feds_to_tak.html

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