Wednesday, August 19, 2009

An interview with Karen Weaver

Here's an interview with Karen Weaver, one of the Deutsche Bank analysts who predicts that 48% of all mortgage borrowers will be underwater by 2011.

Here's an sampling:
The obvious takeaway of falling home prices and being underwater is what it does for defaults. But there's a bigger implication, which is that when we look at the economy over the past decade or two, it's been very much a consumer economy.

What has been driving the consumer hasn't been gains in incomes. What has been driving them is easy credit and rising home values. And the fact that their home price was rising and they could borrow against that through home equity lines or loans or refinancing, it augurs for a very different economy going forward if people don't have that option.

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