Friday, May 27, 2005

The Public Perception of the Bubble

Recently, the media has been giving significant attention to the housing bubble. The coverage of this important issue should have started many months ago. As usual the mainstream media are behind the curve.

In a slightly dated poll released May 5th, Experian and Gallup Organization found that the less then half on the population had heard about the "housing bubble."

From an article in on the Direct Marketing Association website:
"In addition to rising interest rates, there has been a lot of talk about a housing bubble," said Jacobe in the release. "Our latest survey showed that few consumers are aware of a possible housing bubble. This is troubling because if there is a housing bubble some consumers with mortgages could end up upside down, meaning they will owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth."

Only about a quarter of all consumers have heard of a potential "housing bubble," with 65 percent saying they have heard nothing about it, and another 12 percent saying "only a little." However, when told that a housing bubble is when the prices of houses have increased so quickly and gone so high that it's like a bubble that could burst and suddenly there could be a big drop in the price of houses, about four in 10 consumers say it is very or somewhat likely that such a situation could occur in their area in the next three years.

Lower income consumers (under $40,000 annual household income) are most likely to say a housing bubble could occur in their area - 46 percent express that view, compared with about 30 to 33 percent among consumers with higher incomes.

So what does this all mean? The public as of May 5th is under informed about the housing bubble. Since then there has been a rash of articles in the mainstream media. In the next few months, Joe and Jane public will be hearing much more about the bubble. The demand curve for housing will shift downwards.