Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Foreclosure Rate by County




Posted by David at 5:02 PM

6 comments:

  1. wannabuyJanuary 15, 2008 11:26 PM

    David,

    Excellent find! Who is the source?

    Anyone expecting a quick recovery should look at those foreclosure rates in California, Florida, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and look... a cluster around DC...

    Jumbo loans aren't going to be returning quickly. Credit will continue to tighten. If Freddie and Fannie do offer Jumbos, expect credit checks, DTI verification, and *large* required down payments (say 25%).

    Which county holds the record? It seems to be around the huge bubble in SLC?

    So much for the line that the 'rust belt' is where all the pain is. This is global. Oh, the map only proves its a national bubble... but we already know this is was a global 'housing gold rush.'

    The 'housing gold rush' is over. Time to for the 'great squish down.'

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  2. DavidJanuary 16, 2008 9:31 AM

    http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/01/foreclosure-pat.html

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  3. AnonymousJanuary 16, 2008 11:48 AM

    Atlanta and Denver surprise me a little.

    anyone know how to overlay this w/ immigration trends?

    ReplyDelete
  4. LanceJanuary 17, 2008 1:20 AM

    www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/01/16/ST2008011604292.html?hpid=topnews

    It is a divided economy, in which major Wall Street banks are recording multibillion-dollar write-downs even as most regional banks have endured little damage. While unemployment is rising and consumers are falling behind on their bills in such highly populated states as Florida, California and Michigan, most other states appear to be doing fine. Construction workers are on unemployment lines, but engineering and consulting firms are in bidding wars for staff members.

    Interesting ... The consequences of a pan-global economy taking shape are starting to play out. I was right ... But, I'd suspect that most BHs won't understand what I meant by the changes occurring because of the formation of a pan-global economy ... nor recognize why the article above is evidence of the beginnings of such changes.

    Let me give you a hint. BHs are fixated on economic models. Economic models lag. That is, they are people's attempts at simplifying the complex interaction of many factors so that future predictions can be made. The weakness of economic models is that they are based on "what was". When the very basis of the forces causing economies to stir change, the economic models modelling such interactions need to change too. But they don't ... At least not until the resultant changes are well established. We are in the opening stages of such a change. The current economic models should only be used with a grain of salt imbedded in their resulting indications of future economic trends. BHs can't see this. They think economic models must stay the say for all time. They also don't really understand the models to begin with ... but THAT is a whole other story ...

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  5. AnonymousJanuary 17, 2008 12:02 PM

    Lance,

    When you're done with whatever you're smoking, pass it over. That must be some good $h!t because you're the only one who believes what you're saying.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousJanuary 17, 2008 7:49 PM

    Let us disect this carefully

    www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/01/16/ST2008011604292.html?hpid=topnews

    It is a divided economy, in which major Wall Street banks are recording multibillion-dollar write-downs even as most regional banks have endured little damage.
    (Regional banks have endured little damage-for now! Wait until the Alt-A and Prime borrowers start walking from their under water house. Count the foreclosures increase over time and see if regional banks remain little effected.)

    While unemployment is rising and consumers are falling behind on their bills in such highly populated states as Florida, California and Michigan, most other states appear to be doing fine. (For now! As spending decreases in the hardest hit areas watch as big retail sotres have to cut back on staff and stores. Remeber Christmas, or as some have called it Grinchmas? Sales were off nation wide, not just the hard hit areas.)

    Construction workers are on unemployment lines, but engineering and consulting firms are in bidding wars for staff members. (Only those construction workers who were reported as workers are eligible for unemployment benefits, not the 1099 "independent" contractors who worked for construction companies. Bidding wars for engeneering workers? Isn't this a global economy now? (Think cheap engineers from Asia, India, Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, South America, etc. etc. etc. ))

    Quote:
    "Economic models lag. That is, they are people's attempts at simplifying the complex interaction of many factors so that future predictions can be made. The weakness of economic models is that they are based on "what was". When the very basis of the forces causing economies to stir change, the economic models modelling such interactions need to change too. But they don't ... At least not until the resultant changes are well established.
    (Sounds exactly what happened to the black box formulas used by the hedge funds when they bought CDOs...)
    We are in the opening stages of such a change. The current economic models should only be used with a grain of salt imbedded in their resulting indications of future economic trends. BHs can't see this.
    (Neither can the NAR or the housing cheerleaders with their models of a housing pick up in 08-09.)
    They think economic models must stay the say for all time."
    ("Must stay the say (same?) for all time", and when exactly did the NAR say there would ever, ever, EVER be a housing slowdown???)

    Sorry Lance, you arguement can be used against your views even more effectively than it can be used for your views.

    ReplyDelete

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