The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
- Median Price: $438K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.4%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 13%
- Active Listings YoY: 22%
- Median Price: $260k
- Median Sales Price YoY: -1.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 37%
- Active Listings YoY: 23%
- Median Price: $400k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 3%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 8.8%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -21%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 16%
- Active Listings YoY: 4%
- Median Price: $303K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -8.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -3.1%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -56%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 79%
- Active Listings YoY: 72%
Montgomery County, MD
- Median Price: $426K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -2.3%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.2%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -40%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 36%
- Active Listings YoY: 32%
Loudoun County, VA
- Median Price: $410K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -6.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -8.0%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -31%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 3%
- Active Listings YoY: 11%
- Median Price: $486K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -2.9&
- Average Sales Price YoY: 4.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 2%
- Active Listings YoY: 4%
- Median Price: $283K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -6%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -5.7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: - 26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 54%
- Active Listings YoY: 22%
- Median Price: $430K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -4.5%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -.4%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -31%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 15%
- Active Listings YoY: 28%
These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed, the number of housing sales fell in December compared to December 2006 by at least 20% . In most places the median sales price fell.
The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Prices continue to fall. Far out suburbs and condos are experiencing larger price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality. For real estate, this spring's real estate season will not be a recovery time in the DC - Baltimore area. Housing busts usually last many, many years. It is far from over.
Posts
The District's median price 6 months ago, as reported by CNN Money, was $434k yet you say YoY sales prices are up 3% while reporting that the median price in DC is currently $400k (I know because I blogged on it). A bit confused here. While I maintain that DC (other than NYC) has one of the strongest real estate markets in the country, I'm not sure that the price could have depreciated $34k in 6 months. Please explain....
ReplyDeleteThese numbers are year over year comparisons. All of the percentages etc are in comparison to the same month last year.
ReplyDeleteAlso, on the subject of NYC... it has suffered several major RE busts...
~~Breaking News~~
ReplyDeleteLance's neighbor's house has gone under contract!!
Check out www.dcbrownstone.com for information on this fully restored Victorian that has been sitting on the market for months a mere few hundred feet from Lance's much humbler home.
The website claims the house is now under contract with an asking price of $1.07 million. It remains to be seen what its final sales price is recorded at.
It is quite clear from this sale that lance is now well underwater on his far smaller and less desirable rowhouse that he paid $900k for near the height of the bubble in 2005.
Check out:
http://www.dcbrownstone.com/comps.htm
for a frank discussion of the declining real estate market in Dupont circle.
Even the would be sellers of this home admit that prices in the once hot dupont market are collapsing and are attempting to undercut the falling market!
From the seller's webpage:
"The following sales occurred after the significant downward adjustment to pricing and sales volume that escalated in August 2007. Source data is given, and effective price/sq.ft. is computed. ... This property is currently listed at 10-15% below today's already reduced pricing when adjusted for size, and provides a great "margin of safety" for today's buyer."
What do these sellers know that lance doesn't? What does virtually everyone now know that lance still doesn't?
The bust has reached Dupont.
Will 10-15% below the already falling market be sufficient cushion to keep the new buyer from joining lance in being underwater on their purchase? It seems unlikely...
"It is quite clear from this sale that lance is now well underwater on his far smaller and less desirable rowhouse that he paid $900k for near the height of the bubble in 2005."
ReplyDeleteThat is almost certainly the case. However as david noted in this post "Far out suburbs and condos are experiencing larger price declines". Thus all things being equal, Lance's losses are smaller than others living in the DC metro area. Accordingly, if Lance was committed to buying in 2005 in the DC metro area, he made the best choice possible.
Too bad for the prior poster Lance hadnt bought in PWC. The suckers out there are really getting creamed.
Anon 12:59 said:
ReplyDelete"It is quite clear from this sale that lance is now well underwater on his far smaller and less desirable rowhouse that he paid $900k for near the height of the bubble in 2005."
Yeah ... Typical bubblehead ... doesn't do his research ... Just relies on what the Realtors tell him ... That house (per the tax records) sits on a lot 1/2 the size of mine and has some 400 square feet less of livable space. It also doesn't appear to have a garage/carriage house ... and sits on busy 16th Street where traffic noise is a real issue. I'm glad to hear they got over a $1 million (though it appears to have been a distress sale since the tax records indicate it is bank owned)considering I have twice the land and 400 more square feet of living area PLUS the garage/carriage house ... Yeah, by bubblehead standards I am "under water" ... as you continually find reason for justifying never having bought your own home.
LOL...
ReplyDeletePoor lance!
It is hilarious seeing you try to compare your house to this one.
This house is fully restored, in an excellent location(certainly much better than yours) and is across the board a far more desirable property for a well off buyer. Now I suppose if they were looking to subdivide their home into little apartments like you did... then your house might have a slight edge.
You have got to be NUTs to think your house can compare directly to this one. You are simply looking at a house in a different league and your rose colored glasses don't change a thing.
Why is it that seemingly every owner believes their house is just "special" and could compete with a far nicer house on even terms?
Lance - I disagree with you on a lot of things, and I think your view of the importance of D.C. on the worlds stage is pretty myopic. However there is one thing I will give you credit for - living in the best place in this area to ride out the bubble.
ReplyDeleteHere we are over 2 years into this thing and the BHs are still waiting for the prices in DC proper to plummet. They keep saying it will happen any day now, and I used to agree with them. However after 2+ years I cant agree with them any more.
Now, lets say prices do in fact drop, maybe on the magnitude of 10-15 percent. If this happens, the bubble heads will readily dish you up an "in your face", call you stupid, etc. etc. At the same time however, alot of the same BHs will be the prowd owners of some god awful place way out there and fail to realize that their drops in value are 2-3times as bad as what you experienced! Pathetic...
according to the tax assessor's website your house is only 2732 sq ft.
ReplyDelete2bd 3.5 baths ...
no airconditioner...
1 fireplace...
you have got to be kidding lance!
You are comparing your house to the one from the webpage?
nuts!
It is kind of sad watching you try to explain this away lance.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think the DC assessor disagrees on the relative values of the two houses?
Yours: 845k
1837 16th st: 897k
Puzzling isn't it? It is so obvious to you that your house is better and yet, nobody else agrees.
Lol @ the idiot anonymous.
ReplyDeleteThe best place to "ride out the bubble" is in a hugely overpriced house bought at the very peak?
Yeah, that makes perfect sense....
Why do I suspect this is just lance posting anonymously to pat himself on the back again?
Anon at 6:29 pm. I am not on Lances side, I think he is kind of an idiot. My point was very simple - if you bought a hugely overpriced house at the peak of the bubble and where would you prefer to be DC or PWC? And dont say "neither", or "rent" or some other non-answer. This is a hypothetical where you bought and plan to stay - again where would you want to be DC or PWC?
ReplyDeleteThe idiot anonymous.
"Anon at 6:29 pm. I am not on Lances side, I think he is kind of an idiot. My point was very simple - if you bought a hugely overpriced house at the peak of the bubble and where would you prefer to be DC or PWC?"
ReplyDeleteWhich would you prefer to get shot with? A pistol or a rifle?
The correct answer here is to avoid getting shot, or for that matter buying overpriced real estate at the top of a gigantic bubble.
"Which would you prefer to get shot with? A pistol or a rifle?"
ReplyDeleteAhh the non answer. I am not going to insult your intelligence and say you cant see the flaw with your analogy. My guess is you clearly can see the flaw and that is why you did not come straight out and answer my question.
I will try this one more time - in my hypo assume you already bought - nothing you can do about it now. The question then is where would you prefer it to be (in terms of downside) DC or PWC?
The Idiot Anonymous.
Ok, then here is my response...
ReplyDeleteAssume you had already been shot, which would you rather you had been shot by, a pistol or a rifle?
You are calling this a non-answer but it really isn't. The correct answer here is to avoid the problem in the first place.
Have you ever heard the phrase "you make your money when you buy?"
This is a perfect illustration. If you bought at the top of the bubble you screwed up financially. Some areas are worse than others but you have screwed up either way.
The correct answer would have been to simply exercise a little restraint and not buy an overpriced rowhouse for 900k at the top of a bubble.
Hello. I just stumbled upon your website and there's some good information here. TheLandlordTimes.com is an interactive website delivering news and information to the rental housing industry. If it's alright with you, I'd like to stop in from time to time and I'll link to information here that our readers might find valuable. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWill Johnson
www.TheLandlordTimes.com News and Tips for landlords, property managers and real estate investors.
You guys are all juvenile. Or gay. Or both.
ReplyDelete"Ok, then here is my response...
ReplyDeleteAssume you had already been shot, which would you rather you had been shot by, a pistol or a rifle?"
Another non-answer. How many more times will Anon 1:41 come back and give an answer that does NOT include a reference to either DC or PWC? Anyone want to take a guess?
The Idiot Anonymous.
Hey Dummy "Shooter" anonymous - youre saying you are dead either way huh. OK - so the drop in DC and in Manassas will be the SAME??? How retarded are you???
ReplyDeleteDude is making you dance like a puppet - quit taking !!!