Yun is at it again, shilling irrational optimism to the media who seem only to happy to quote this discredited shill.
“‘The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain,’ Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. ‘A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.’” (AP News)
Really? You have lost your credibility. Don't listen to this paid spinner as he has been wrong many times before. He is paid to spin optimistic mesages on behalf of the real estate industial complex (REIC).
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David,
ReplyDeletethis was too good to pass up.
It features everyone's favorite NAR truth teller (sarcasm off) David Lie-era
Go to this link and have a laugh.
http://tinyurl.com/yp7xek
Full link
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/04/already-gone/
Scroll down until you reach this sentence and enjoy the editions of Lie-rea's book-
especially the latest edition.
"I would like to finish this week with a laugh (Warning four letter word ahead.) Does everyone remember David Lereah, the former economist for the National Association of Realtors? He wrote a book at the height of the bubble claiming there wasn’t one."
Even if you choose not to post this on your blog, at least have a look at the site listed, you will have the laugh of the decade.
"Wow, this is interesting since the news reported that this was the most successful holiday season to date saleswise ... And I noted that everywhere I went it was jam packed. It starting to look like the re-alignment I predicted in conjunction with the changes in the global economy is happening. I.e., the gap between rich and less-rich areas is widening." lance dec 26...
ReplyDelete===========================
Retailers Report Weak Results for December As Gas Prices, Slumping Housing Market Take Toll
NEW YORK (AP) -- An already weak holiday shopping season turned out to be even worse than expected for many of the nation's retailers, who reported Thursday they had disappointing sales results for December. The poor performance raised more concerns about consumer spending, and in turn, the health of the economy.
The weak results came from across all retail categories, and prompted many stores to lower their fourth-quarter earnings forecasts. Particularly hard hit were apparel sellers including Limited Brands Inc. and AnnTaylor Stores Corp., as well as department stores including Macy's Inc. Among the few bright spots was Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which posted results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, as it benefited from shoppers trading down to cheaper stores amid higher gas prices and a slumping housing market.
=========================
Reality, Jan 10
Has lance ever said something that proved accurate?
Has Lance ever admitted he didn't know what he was talking about?
ReplyDelete"Spending between Thanksgiving and Christmas rose just 3.6 percent over last year, the weakest performance in at least four years, according to MasterCard Advisors, a division of the credit card company. By comparison, sales grew 6.6 percent in 2006, and 8 percent in 2005."
ReplyDeletewww.nytimes.com/2007/12/26/business/26shop-web.html
Christmas sales ROSE by 3.6 percent as compared to 2006. While the year on year increase this year was not as high as the year on year increase experienced during the boom years of real estate, the 3.6 percent increase this year makes this year "the most successful holiday season to date" ... as I said. But of course, this is an inconvenient truth for those betting on a recession to be able to buy a home.
Lance will be broke, homeless, and destitute before he admits that he is/was wrong about real estate.
ReplyDeleteIt's really quite sad.
I'm curious...
ReplyDeleteIf the proposed 90 day moratorium on foreclosures goes through, how many banks will fail?
Retail isn't so hot. We're in a recession. I was shocked how empty the shops were this year. The earnings look to verify that.
The old advice is only buy a home when getting a loan is difficult. We're far from that *still*. We're returning to normal loan practices. After lending has ceased tightening and instead is loosening... I'll buy about six months later.
I'm just amazed at what inventory is doing. Its kicking back up. Let's see how the trend goes.
Got popcorn?
Neil
David,
ReplyDeleteYou should read this article over at Northern Virginia Housing Bubble Fallout. It appears the District, NoVa, and nearby counties in Maryland have all be officially defined as 'declining markets.'
So much for a quick recovery. For those that don't know, a 'declining market' definition boosts the minimum down payment by an automatic 5%. It usually also triggers a 2nd appraisal by the loan originator. This will slow the market. Effectively, it just added another 5% price cut.
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2008/01/red-flags.html
The originating Post article (hat tip NVHBF):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/12/AR2008011200269.html
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil said:
ReplyDelete"For those that don't know, a 'declining market' definition boosts the minimum down payment by an automatic 5%. It usually also triggers a 2nd appraisal by the loan originator. This will slow the market. Effectively, it just added another 5% price cut."
Let's see ... 5% on a middle of the road condo ($500K?) is about $25,000. That is NOT good news for your average 1st time purchaser/bubblehead buyer. While the established bubbleheads on here will have no problem coming up with that $25,000 (or more on the move-up properties they're looking to buy), 1st time homebuyers such as David may have a hard time of it. Consider that closing costs on a home add another 5% or so to the "cash to the table requirement" and lots of 1st time homebuyers/bubbleheads have just been priced out of the market by the very forces they were counting on helping them. It's sad. Really.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“That is NOT good news for your average 1st time purchaser/bubblehead buyer. While the established bubbleheads on here will have no problem coming up with that $25,000 (or more on the move-up properties they're looking to buy), 1st time homebuyers such as David may have a hard time of it. Consider that closing costs on a home add another 5% or so to the "cash to the table requirement" and lots of 1st time homebuyers/bubbleheads have just been priced out of the market by the very forces they were counting on helping them.”
So Lance, what you’re describing are fewer potential buyers in a market already at high inventory levels. Perfect. Could not have said it better myself.
"Let's see ... 5% on a middle of the road condo ($500K?) is about $25,000. That is NOT good news for your average 1st time purchaser/bubblehead buyer. While the established bubbleheads on here will have no problem coming up with that $25,000 (or more on the move-up properties they're looking to buy), 1st time homebuyers such as David may have a hard time of it. Consider that closing costs on a home add another 5% or so to the "cash to the table requirement" and lots of 1st time homebuyers/bubbleheads have just been priced out of the market by the very forces they were counting on helping them. It's sad. Really.
ReplyDeleteJanuary 14, 2008 12:51 AM"
pooor lance
You just can't put two and two together can you? On the one hand you say how much harder it will be to buy... but on the other hand you don't think that means prices will fall. Which is it lance?
The truth is that it WILL become harder to buy, 5% down is just the start. This will contribute to the continuing RE bust. Eventually prices will return to historical norms and an average middle class buyer will be able to buy an average middle class home on an average middle class income.
I think we are all cheering the tightening lending standards. The sooner the monopoly money disappears from the market the sooner prices will return to normal.
If you can't come up with 5% down, what business do you have trying to buy a $500k house?
There will be a lot of people whining that they can't buy without the help of crazy financing. These are the exact people who shouldn't be buying. If you think you can afford an expensive house then you can certainly afford to save up a small fraction of its price.
Consider that closing costs on a home add another 5% or so to the "cash to the table requirement" and lots of 1st time homebuyers/bubbleheads have just been priced out of the market by the very forces they were counting on helping them. It's sad. Really.
ReplyDeleteLance, Lance. Once again you demonstrate that you have not lived long enough to have experienced a real housing downturn.
Ways to finance the down payment on a house in a down market? Let me count them:
1. Owner-financing (my parents nearly lost their shirts on that one-- fortunately the guy refinanced the large second mortgage they gave him before he defaulted),
2. Take over the payments (this used to be quite common, and I don't see banks raising a stink with a well-qualified buyer if it means not having to add a house to their foreclosure portfolio),
3. Rent-to-own or option-to-buy plans where you pay a few hundred over the going rental rate which is later applied to the downpayment if you buy.
4. First time buyer plans by state and local government. (That's how we bought our townhouse in 2000-- showed them all our pay stubs, bills, got a statement from the landlord saying we paid our rent on time, took a short course on financial responsibility and voila-- guaranteed loan with 3% down.)
And, of course, there's that old fashioned thing only us fuddy-duddies still remember called SAVING part of your income and spending less than you earn... Yeah, I know, that's just crazy talk.
Sarah in DC
Guys. Take it easy on Lance. After all, it's a new year and all those GS-14's are advancing to become...GS-14 Step 2's!
ReplyDeleteJerkstore