Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back — in some cases, as soon as six months from now.
Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won't bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don't see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Americans expect housing prices to bounce back soon
Some people never learn:
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Before we see a bottom, we would first need to see the credit markets working again. And secondly we would need to see unemployment coming down.
ReplyDeleteAs for when I think the bottom will be, ask me again in a year :-).
Dont fear all the haters children - recall another one of my earlier predictions:
ReplyDelete"wannabuy said...
" most of my data suggests that the market here (in DC) has stabilized and the market is projected to grow."
With the way the bond market has died? You do realize that the mortgage market will only regain life 60 to 90 days after the bond market returns to normal. Since not even the commercial paper market is healthy... You might want to rethink that statement.
We're *almost* back to the times where a down payment matters and they verify the loan will be repaid. *Almost* It will take another year to fully get there, but we will.
All equities, including housing, lose value as credit tightens. This is the "mother of all credit tightenings." Home prices have a long way to correct.
Got popcorn?
Neil
September 04, 2007 7:24 PM"
You may ask, "but Sizzle-Lien, its been well over a year, but Arlington prices are down only 3% from last year - how can this be?"
The answer is simple, I meant one year in Sizzlington time. Sizzlington time to earth time is 1.23 years so it will not be until December 2008 (earth time) that Sizzlington really crashes.
Got Bacon?
Sizzle-Lien
To all my believiers and followers - Arlington Meltdown is coming soon. I use this blog for communication as our enemies do not monitor it - this is a safe line of communication.
ReplyDeleteIt is thus that I can tell you, the meltdown is here!!! My armies shall strike on Dec 25, 2008. Watch for my signal, a spotlight piercing the night sky - like batman!
Now, my enemies will expect my spotlight to have strips of crispy bacon as a symbol. To throw them off, I have chosen another tasty breakfast food - flapjacks - yes you heard me right flapjacks!
Warning, the area is heavily fortified so I need to disguise my method of attack. Again, look for flapjacks in the sky and count (1 if by land, 2 if by sea [the potomac]).
The fight will be long and hard, however we shall vanquish every buyer out there who buy at 3% off, and once the perimeter is secure demand every home be purchased at my predicted price of 40% off!
For each of you that join me, I shall reward you with one house - I CALL UPON YOU ALL, LIEN BODY MASS, LIEN ARMSTRONG, LIEN SEDAKA, NEILIST, ALL OF YOU - JOIN ME NOW AND SIZZLINGTON SHALL BE MINE!
Oh how I love me some Sizzle Lein!!!
ReplyDeleteTo Sizzlington!
ReplyDeleteOnward and forever upward! (or downward, if we're discussing Arlington values)
Lien Armstrong
We've been telling most clients that they shouldn't buy unless they are willing to hold onto their property for at least five years.
ReplyDeleteThe real answer to the housing market is unknown and unknowable. The inventory of new houses and condos alone is enormous and will take time to work through. As just one example of the snow ball effect, developers are not building and in time, the shutdown of the building and related industry activity and consequent increases in the unemployed will further impact housing.
ReplyDeleteBrandon,
ReplyDeleteYou may want to put a 1 in front of that advice.
Try 15 years.
The demographics don't look good.
Chuck Ponzi
Every year I rent is another $20-$30k in my pocket for not buying a house that will be worth less next year. So, when price declines stop, that's when I'll buy. See you in 2011?
ReplyDeleteThe bounce back is the return to lower prices.
ReplyDelete