Home values in 20 large metropolitan areas across the country dropped at a record pace in October as the fallout from the financial collapse reverberated through the housing market, according to data released Tuesday.
The price of single-family homes fell 18 percent in October from a year earlier, according to the closely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller Housing Index. All 20 cities reported annual price declines in October; prices in 14 of the 20 metropolitan areas surveyed fell at a record rate as the financial crisis reached a critical point.
Washington, DC: Housing Boom & Bust. Source (NYTimes Graph).
Of course, during the past year, the percentage price declines have not been uniform across the Washington, DC metro area. Overall, in the Washington, DC metro area we are back to May 2004 prices (nominally). Inflation adjusted, prices are back even further to early 2003.
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My neighbor is totally in the whole. She overpaid in the Summer of '05.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at an Arlington Condo in 2000. Went for just under $300K. It is currently still over $500K. Still have a long way to drop in Arlington.
ReplyDeleteYep - one of my co workers passed on an Arlington SFH in 2002 at 340K because of "the bubble". At the time, I wasnt really interested and thought he was a bit nuts.
ReplyDeleteIn 2005 when it burst, he felt vindicated, citing case shiller, etc, and predicting the price would crash down to 300K. I started to notice too. I no longer thought he was nuts.
A funny thing happened though - prices far out crashed, but prices in spots like arlington just let a little air out. He kept saying "oh it will happen" but so far it hasnt.
A few months ago, that place sold for 644K, a "crash" compared to its peak of around 700K, but still far far above the price he refused to pay in 2002.
So to think, he could have bought the place, lived there for 6 years, sold it, and STILL pocketed at least 300K. Yet he refused and has paid at least 150K in rent during that time...OUCH!!!
Works as long as there is some one to lend by closing their eyes.
ReplyDeleteYep, a lot of neighborhoods still do have a ways to fall, but others are doing ok.
ReplyDeleteIf the people who bought in 2002 and before would offer 2004 prices, even in Arlington, then this mess would be over and buying would resume. But those greedy holdouts MUST double thier prices so that they can retire early and hold thier heads high at the country/golf club.
ReplyDeleteIm not faulting the Arlingtonians - they are holding out for 2005 prices and GETTING them. Hence, sales in Arlington are faster here than anywhere else in the DC area.
ReplyDeleteThe ones really at fault are the exurban sellers offering 2004 prices when the market supports 2002 prices. If these exurban types (the ones who really are more likely to belong to a country club) would lower their prices, this would all be over much much sooner.
"Im not faulting the Arlingtonians - they are holding out for 2005 prices and GETTING them. Hence, sales in Arlington are faster here than anywhere else in the DC area."
ReplyDeleteYou're the dolt I'm talking to in the other thread, aren't you?
Well, if you own in Arlington, that's fine as long as it isn't a condo.
Being "close-in" is almost as good as being "in".
The Commonwealth of VA is generally ridiculous, however. Good luck if the VA government declares bankruptcy. (and it very well could).
Here is a recipe for success:
ReplyDeleteTake the property that you are looking at go back to the value in 2000. Add 3% per year for the past eight years, and that is a realistic price. We are and will continue to revert to the mean
We've suddenly experienced a similar decline in Canada. I wish there was a site that compared major metro areas in both us and canada - it was amazing how far behind the us we lagged the fall.
ReplyDeleteI expected a large decline, we are seeing people dumping properties left and right in my area. There are some great deals to be had, if you have the cash
ReplyDeleteThis story is a complete fabrication! everyone knows home prices only go up.
ReplyDelete"Take the property that you are looking at go back to the value in 2000. Add 3% per year for the past eight years, and that is a realistic price. We are and will continue to revert to the mean"
ReplyDelete-------------------
I hope so, that would make the average home in Bethesda go down to about $350K! I make $100K a year and that would put me right in a level that I could afford!
Right now, Im looking at run down houses that look like crack homes in rockville.
WaPo reports home prices falling in Arlington! Link
ReplyDeleteHome values are down just 2 percent, and commercial assessments have actually ticked up by 1 percent.
This is it.
Dear dolt, hey, did you know that gold is pushing $1000 per ounce now? how will you afford it when currency is completely devalued?
ReplyDeleteUnrest caused by bad economy may require military action, report says
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 12/29/2008 12:00:00 AM MST
EL PASO -- A U.S. Army War College report warns an economic crisis in the United States could lead to massive civil unrest and the need to call on the military to restore order.
http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_11326744
Anon said...
ReplyDelete"WaPo reports home prices falling in Arlington! Link
Home values are down just 2 percent, and commercial assessments have actually ticked up by 1 percent.
This is it."
LOL - it sure is. My favorite part of the story:
"The picture offered yesterday by Arlington officials demonstrated a central tenet of this, and any, recession: Some get hit harder than others. In the Washington region, areas farther from the District and the region's core are taking the brunt."
Wow, its as if they are saying SOME AREAS ARE DIFFERENT!!!
"WaPo reports home prices falling in Arlington! ... This is it." "
ReplyDeleteand
"LOL - it sure is. My favorite part of the story:"
Were written by the same anxiety-stricken Arlington homeowner.
So there really was a bubble?
ReplyDeleteOf course there was a bubble, no one would deny that. The difference was how much of the price increase was due to "THE BUBBLE" and how much was due to the fact that close in places have gentrified?
ReplyDeleteAs it turns out, MOST of the gains in close were due to gentrification, and these have stuck around.
Also, MOST of the gains out past the beltway were due to the bubble and thus have evaporated.
"So there really was a bubble?"
ReplyDeleteand
"Of course there was a bubble,"
Were written by the same person.
"So there really was a bubble?"
ReplyDeleteand
"Of course there was a bubble,"
and
"Were written by the same person"
Were written by the same person.
Were there really people out there who thought they deserved 30% a year because they felt they were so smart to buy and painted such tastful colors.
ReplyDeleteYes its true, and one of them lurks here and tries to scare anyone into buying. His idea is to get the ball rolling and keep it rolling on upward prices because he has lost his lordship dream.
ReplyDelete"Yes its true, and one of them lurks here and tries to scare anyone into buying. His idea is to get the ball rolling and keep it rolling on upward prices because he has lost his lordship dream."
ReplyDeleteNot trying to scare anyone into buying. I see no chance that prices are going up anytime soon, and a decent chance they will keep declining. Time is clearly on the buyer's side.
What I am pointing out is how unbelievably wrong some people were when it came to the price declines these areas would suffer. A year ago, this board was a frenzy of people eagerly anticipating imminent huge declines close in. Now, they are all gone, retreated back to their suburban abodes trying to figure out "how did I get it so wrong???"
"Now, they are all gone, retreated back to their suburban abodes trying to figure out "how did I get it so wrong???" "
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness: Seek professional help.
"Wow, its as if they are saying SOME AREAS ARE DIFFERENT!!!"
ReplyDeleteYou think?
You mean Manassas isn't the same as Arlington?
"You mean Manassas isn't the same as Arlington?"
ReplyDeleteGot Prozac?
"Got Prozac?"
ReplyDeleteMove on, junkie. Get your drugs someplace else!!!
"As it turns out, MOST of the gains in close were due to gentrification, and these have stuck around."
ReplyDeletePlease explain how you measured and quantified the portion of the gains attributable to gentrification. In addition, please explain, in detail, how close-in areas such as Ballston and Rosslyn gentrified since the early 2000's. Thanks.
"John Fountain said...
ReplyDeleteIn addition, please explain, in detail, how close-in areas such as Ballston and Rosslyn gentrified since the early 2000's."
In Clarendon & Ballston, many of the low income apartments are gone, replaced with hi rise condos. Old time institions like whiteys with its "eat" sign are gone, replaced with upscale digs like Harry's tap room. What does this do to property values?
In Del Ray, there was not a single business of any consequence on Mt Vernon ave in 1996. Today, there is an upscale butcher, a cheese monger, top 100 washingtonian restaurants, wholistic healers, etc. etc. What does this do to property values?
In Old Town Alexandria, there used to be block upon block of projects (the "Berg"). About 1/3 of these are now gone, replaced with mixed income properties, rec centers, condos, etc. What does this do to property values?
In my hood, police stats indicate we used to have at least 50 shootings a year. Shootings diminished rapidly 1996-2000. Since 2000, we now have less than 10 a year. What do you think this does to property values?
There used to be about 25 abandoned residences within 3-4 blocks of me. Today there are only 3 left. What do you think this does to property values?
There used to be 3 homeless shelters within one mile of my house. Today, all are gone. What do you think this does to property values?
When I first moved here, there were ZERO upscale businesses. Most of what we had was check cashing stores and barbershops to get your cornrows done. Today, about 90% of these are gone. We now have a upscale cheese market, a fishmonger, a wholistic healer, a dentist, etc. Tell me, what does this do to property values?
As late as 2003, a good friend of mine said he would never consider my hood for fear he would "suffer multiple stab wounds". Now, he is considering it because his wife thinks it is "cute". What does this do to property values?
anon 9:37am - Whitey's was not in Ballston or Rosslyn. Harry's Tap Room is not in Ballston or Rosslyn (and was there when prices were half of today's levels). Del Ray is not in Ballston or Rosslyn. Niether is DC. And besides, the closing of Whitey's hardly fits the definition of gentrification given the demographics of Whitey's customers.
ReplyDeletei appreciate the effort you made in your eight paragraph response, but you still didn't answer either of my questions.
here they are again:
"Please explain how you measured and quantified the portion of the gains attributable to gentrification. In addition, please explain, in detail, how close-in areas such as Ballston and Rosslyn gentrified since the early 2000's. Thanks."
"what does this do to property values?"
ReplyDeleteAll that work and all you did was feed the troll.
Never feed a troll.
I don't know about values in DC, but Omaha has been doing nicely... in fact the midwest as a whole has done ok. Parts of Omaha have actually been doing great...check this site out for a breakdown of the past 4 years in Omaha neighborhoods... it's really interesting...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mikeknowsomaha.com/services/midtown-project.html
My two predictions for 2009:
ReplyDeleteSan Francisco Bay area will see a 30% drop in the median real estate price.
Arlington will see a 15% drop.
It has been my guess that we will see prices her ein Jackson Hole return to 2004 levels. Our decrease just started recently last six months) We do have the advantage of low inventory and reasonably high demand. I like to look at Schillers housing index as a worst case scenerio if we hit the real bottom we would only be one third of the way there - scary.
ReplyDeleteJohn Fountain - you asked how "close-in areas SUCH AS Ballston and Rosslyn gentrified since the early 2000's."
ReplyDeleteI answered citing to other close in areas, you just dont like the answer. What more can be said?
Anon 6:41am - I figured your claims were unsubstantiated and based on your lack of willingness to support them, I was right. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteJohn Fountain - seriously, I dont get you. You ask to substantiate them, I cite examples, you dont like them and say I dont support them. What else can I do.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, give me a hypothetical answer that in your mind would be evidence of gentrification. I really dont understand.
anon 8:04am - I had two very specific requests and you responded directly to neither of them (and didn't attempt to respond at all to the first). Truth be told, I wasn't really looking for an answer, just posing the questions so that you yourself would show that your own claims were unsubstantiated.
ReplyDeleteJohn Fountain said...
ReplyDelete"truth be told, I wasn't really looking for an answer"
Obviously. However, I am still curious, what would constitute evidence of gentrification in your book. As I see it nothing could convince you that any gentrification has taken place.
"Truth be told, I wasn't really looking for an answer, "
ReplyDeleteThe very definition of a troll.
Im not a troll!
ReplyDelete