Housing decline likely causing lasting structural unemployment
Via Megan McArdle's blog:Many Americans are mired in a housing gridlock: They can't afford to sell their homes because property values have fallen, causing millions of people to owe more on their homes than they are worth. And, many can't move to take new jobs until they sell their homes. ...
Fewer Americans are moving now than in any year since 1962, when the population was 120 million smaller.
"The economy is playing havoc, since property values have dropped significantly in the last few years," Hicks said. "Many people simply cannot just pick up and move. They have a home they have to sell first.
Megan comments:
One of the justly celebrated strengths of the United States economy is its labor mobility. By this account, at least, our housing market has basically destroyed that critical asset. A recession like this is the worst time to lose your labor mobility.
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Lawrence Yun calls Arlington one of the strongest markets in the country:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.examiner.com/x-2342-Northern-Virginia-Real-Estate-Examiner~y2009m6d23-Existing-home-sales-up-year-over-year-in-DC-for-May
OH so many emotions swirling around David's head. The immune city of arlington, his hatred/love of Lawrence Yun. Stand back - david's head might explode!
In case you haven't heard, David bought a home.
ReplyDeleteAlso, nobody cares about Arlington. It's a minuscule part of the DC metro area.
Interested in hearing positive news on the housing market? Check out positive sentiment and the housing market at www.newssift.com: http://tinyurl.com/mwl82h
ReplyDelete"Interested in hearing positive news on the housing market? "
ReplyDeleteNot really. I didn't buy during the peak.
"Also, nobody cares about Arlington. It's a minuscule part of the DC metro area."
ReplyDeleteOut here on the west coast, we've been closely watching the market in Arlington for signs on where the global economy might be steering. As the saying goes, "as goes Arlington, so goes the nation."
"As the saying goes, 'as goes Arlington, so goes the nation.'"
ReplyDeleteYeah and it was Benedict Arnold who said it! LOL
You could drive through arlington in less than 10 minutes its so small. Its all you hear about when people here talk about prices in DC....its like the entire STATE of MD much less the rest of VA dont exist to those idiots.
Really you have two main markets in the DC metro area, those that fell 50% (Loco, PG, PW counties) and those that fell 20% (DC west of Rock Creek park, Arlington and Bethesda). Those areas are now even more valuable because if they can go through this and "only" fall 20% they can go through anything.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't cry too much over labor mobility.
ReplyDeleteWorkers are more mobile today than at any point in history thanks to this little thing called the Internet.
And if you need to move for job, you'll move.
"Really you have two main markets in the DC metro area, those that fell 50% (Loco, PG, PW counties) and those that fell 20% (DC west of Rock Creek park, Arlington and Bethesda)."
ReplyDeleteWhat about those areas that actually INCREASED since the bubble...aka montgomery county.
Being short sighted to only Arlington makes you miss the bigger picture called the "DC metro area."
"Its all you hear about when people here talk about prices in DC....its like the entire STATE of MD much less the rest of VA dont exist to those idiots."
ReplyDeleteAnd yet, James tells us NO ONE cares about Arlington. Why oh why do we always talk about what we dont care about???
"Its all you hear about when people here talk about prices in DC....its like the entire STATE of MD much less the rest of VA dont exist to those idiots."
ReplyDeleteWell, right. But most folks who bought in DC could see the writing on the wall. Of course PWC fell 50%. How could anyone think prices out in the exurbs would be sustainable? Don't get me started on the exurbs of Las Vegas. You would've had to have been an idiot to buy into that pipe-dream.
Most of the folks who talk up prices in DC do so simply to point out that things *are* different in the city.
When fuel prices rise again--this time for good--and the region's population increases because of economic opportunity--making the already intolerable roads even worse--the price premium of city over 'burbs is just going to grow.
I don't think you'll get any argument from a city dweller that, on the whole, regional prices will fall.
Just not in places like, oh, Silver Spring (Hi James), Bethesda, Arlington, and the city proper.
I think a lot of folks are living in the past, and are missing some of the big demographic and attitudinal changes that have taken place in the last couple of decades. The mastadon never knows he's stepped in the tar pits til it's too late.
I don't live in Silver Spring. I don't even live in Maryland.
ReplyDeleteThanks for pulling 808housing.
ReplyDeleteI think it's David's buying in Silver Spring, not James.
Wow labor mobility! California State Parks to lay off 2,000 plus employees....New Mexico State Parks might hire 14 of them....so much for the internet angle..I guess the rest can work as corrections officers after all like parks, jails have gates too!
ReplyDelete