The Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index for DC. Note that it only measures homes with conforming mortgages. Also note that the index is not adjusted for inflation.
Washington, DC's homeownership rate. Notice it is below 50%.
Washington, DC's unemployment rate. It is higher than the national average, while the entire DC metro area's unemployment rate is lower than the national average. This suggests that people with better job prospects prefer to live in the suburbs.
Update: If you click on the graphs, they will now take you to the original source. Once there, you can click the "Customize with FRED Graph" link to customize them.
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Looks like this is one of the more immune areas in the US. It must upset the Arlington trolls that they arent even the most immune part of the metro area.
ReplyDeleteI hear the word immune a lot, but reality is that the curve is behind the rest of the nation, as is NY. When the rest of the nation bottoms out, NY and DC will continue to drop another 2 or 3 years.
ReplyDeleteThats not immune, thats getting the 3 day stomach flu, 2 days after everyone else and saying "I feel fine" before you feel the full effect.
Actually, DC proper has been falling since mid 2006 - about the same time as the rest of the nation. The difference is, its just not a very big fall.
ReplyDeleteI think DC is behind, but probably only 6 months to a year behind. Unfortunately, 1 year ago, when the worst areas were in the midst of their most intensive declines they were falling at -30% yoy rates. Right now, at the same point in its inventory cycle, DC is posting -5% YOY declines (contrary to my earlier call of -15% YOY).
DC certainly isnt immune, but it is innoculated.
"Actually, DC proper has been falling since mid 2006"
ReplyDeleteactually, it hasn't and the graph posted in this post shows that. DC proper hasnt tasted any fall yet, but it will, dont worry. You will know it when you see it.
Actually, no, as that chart clearly shows, DC proper started falling in 2006 - it just didnt fall that much.
ReplyDeleteSo 2006 is the 3/4th point between 2005 and 2010? You guys need to learn how to read a graph.
ReplyDeletePerhaps you guys just have bad eyesight or something...cause that graph clearly shows that prices didnt decline until about 4th quarter 08.
"This suggests that people with better job prospects prefer to live in the suburbs."
ReplyDeleteI think what you mean is that their are less unemployed per capita in the suburbs than there are in DC proper. The way your statement reads makes it seem more like a qualitative judgement.
As to help out people with graphs
ReplyDeletehttp://img210.imageshack.us/img210/3729/learntoread.gif
MRIS tells a different story. This is the DC Proper price trend for the entire year:
ReplyDelete2005 +20.57%
2006 - 2.84%
2007 - 0.24%
2008 - 2.20%
My guess as to this year is that it will be down 5 to 6%.
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/route.cfm
This suggests that people with better job prospects prefer to live in the suburbs.
ReplyDeleteA more accurate and succinct way of correcting the initial post is to just say, "This suggests that people with worse job prospects prefer to live in the District." Of course, as gentrification proceeds apace, they're having to make do with the suburbs.
Most of my immediate neighbors are pretty wealthy, and are in fairly recession-proof fields. There are pockets of high-density, subsidized housing (and great swaths across the river) where folks have no jobs whatsoever, or live on the margins.
The story of the last decade is how Evil Gentrification is eliminating low-income housing in the city, and being replaced by low-income housing in the 'burbs.
Here is a 5-year look at the DC HPI. DC house prices peaked in early-to-mid 2007 according to the graph.
ReplyDeleteSo what exactly is the FHA Housing Price Index? Is it like the Case-Schiller for smaller geographic areas? If it's similar to that in that it tries to control for the mix of houses sold, I wonder if that explains the discrepancy with the MRIS. Meaning that in late 2006 / early 2007 the change in median house prices had to do more with higher-end homes not selling, and a higher number of distressed sales. Just as an observer it certainly seemed that in 2007 or early 2008 housing in DC was not noticeably cheaper than 2005 or 2006, but that started to change around fall of 2008, and now it's not just that the median sold price is lower, but a house that sold for say $500k in 2006 will sell for $450k or so now.
ReplyDeleteRead this:
ReplyDeleteDC Foreclosures Jump Nearly 40 Percent From May to June
Unemployment is beginning to hit and hard.
Anon412 said...
ReplyDelete"So what exactly is the FHA Housing Price Index?"
A slight correction, it's the FHFA (not FHA) House Price Index. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is a newly-created government agency that replaces the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) and the Federal Housing Finance Board (FHFB).
The former OFHEO House Price Index is now the FHFA House Price Index. It is similar to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, except the S&P/Case-Shiller index is newer and believed to be more accurate.
Awesome! Prices have just started to drop in DC finally!!! I cant wait until this ripples through to montgomery county.
ReplyDeleteI will be ready to buy in about 3 years. I was thinking it was going to take 10 for prices to drop to normal.
Interesting link Kob provided. Foreclosures are up 40% MOM but that looks to be seasonal.
ReplyDeleteOn a YOY (monthly) basis, foreclosures are down 19.65% vs June 08
On a YOY (quarterly) basis, foreclosures are down 15.66% vs Q2 2008.
On a YOY (bi annual) basis, foreclosures are down a whopping 31.06 versus Jan to June 2008.
Looks like this thing is wrapping up much quicker than we thought!
"Looks like this thing is wrapping up much quicker than we thought!"
ReplyDeleteThis has been said so much over the past 3-4 years its tiring. 3 years aint quicker than we thought, and the next 3 years of drops wont be quicker either. Say nonsense like that to someone who cares buddy.
its interesting how you have to pull whole quarters in to prove your point of a YOY increase. YOY for this month is a flunk too. I dont care that this season YOY foreclosers are less, prices are still dropping. Looks like I will be buying a house for half of what you paid for yours during peak sooner than you thought huh?
"Looks like I will be buying a house for half of what you paid for yours during peak sooner than you thought huh?"
ReplyDeleteThe same thing has been threatened for 3 years, and despite all that flailing, prices in DC are down less than 10%.
And yet I sit here, laughing. The last 3 years have been so entertaining. Do stick around. I want to hear your explanations for why prices did not crater in the district.
"The same thing has been threatened for 3 years, and despite all that flailing, prices in DC are down less than 10%."
ReplyDeleteand yet they are down huh? Wonder what happens 3 years from now...down another 10%?
I've said this in other comments, but I feel it needs to be said again. If prices in the DC area are going to stay at these high levels, a good number of people are going to leave the area. There are simply too many houses out there (DC, Montgomery Cty) that are still way overpriced. Families bringing in decent income are being asked to spend way too much for homes. In Rockville, I see a number of townhomes selling or asking for above 500K, single family for above 700K. For families making sub $150K annum, that's way too much. I realize that all of you anonymice (anonymouses) are probably making way above that, but for the rest of us that's a price tag that can't be justified. Should prices stay at still unreasonable levels, you will see migration out of the area.
ReplyDelete"I realize that all of you anonymice (anonymouses) are probably making way above that, but for the rest of us that's a price tag that can't be justified."
ReplyDeleteProbably true, but there are other affordable places - just not first tier places like Mo Co. P.G. County Prince William, etc. Yes there are tradeoffs (crime, long commute) etc. but there are still affordable areas.
"Yes there are tradeoffs (crime, long commute)"
ReplyDeleteYou forgot "waiting 2 or 3 years", thats the trade off Im going for....I will probably end up buying in somewhere like potomac when it drops 40% or more.
I will probably end up buying in somewhere like potomac when it drops 40% or more.
ReplyDeleteI will probably fly my magical pony to work when I wake up and find it in my backyard. Thus, I won't have to worry about the impending traffic-apocalypse...
As the region's population soars, and it's suburban municipalities continue to bury their heads in the sand ("Just one more lane, and we'll have this traffic problem licked!"), you're going to have to wait a lot longer than 2-3 years.