Google's description of the data being measured:
The Google Real Estate Index tracks queries related to "real estate, mortgage, rent, apartments". ... The index is set to 1.0 on January 1, 2004 and is calculated and displayed below as a 7-day moving average.
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I wonder if they normalize it based on overall changes in google search traffic. Since 2004 I imagine google traffic has increased pretty dramatically, so comparing absolute nubers over queries for real estate over the last 5 years would be misleading. I looked under the link for "Read the description" but didn't see that addressed. But google folks are smart so I kinda assume they accounted for this.
ReplyDeletebipolar nation
ReplyDeleteSince 2004 I imagine google traffic has increased pretty dramatically, so comparing absolute nubers over queries for real estate over the last 5 years would be misleading.
ReplyDeleteYou bring up a good point. I was thinking the reverse in that if 2004 was the peg date (assigned a value of 1.0) you would always be below that because 2004 was peak flipping period.
So maybe they balance each other out.
meh, googles boom of teen boys looking for free torrents, video games and porn probably doesnt play much of a role in the change of real estate searches.
ReplyDeleteGoogle doesn't normalize anything, I saw their presentation yesterday at the GOV 2.0 conference. This is clearly is not seasonally adjusted (therefore you see the seasonal downtrend each autumn). I can't help but appreciate the reality that most of the real estate professionals now must locate meaningful employment. Society will now return towards its original purposes and endeavors. I just wish the junk commercials will end soon for all the goofy seminars for RE investment. These are all very poorly timed, and will prove to be as popular as Madoff's ponzi scheme.
ReplyDeleteI just wish the junk commercials will end soon for all the goofy seminars for RE investment. These are all very poorly timed, and will prove to be as popular as Madoff's ponzi scheme.
ReplyDeleteActually, the poorly timed ones were those in 2005-2006 you really cant say the same for those in 2009-2010.
Long term though, I agree. There will be some deals out there as we clean up the mess but after that, lets hope it just goes back to the slow & steady up with inflation we saw for most of the last century.
Anon 1:18 obviously thinks the junk real estate commercials/scams offer advice worth listening to. (John T. Reed disagrees.)
ReplyDeleteThe reason today's RE scams are poorly timed is that it was 2003-2006 when gullible people thought they could get rich by just buying and selling real estate. The scams just take advantage of people's gullibility.
Fools rush in right now. The Foreclosures are just begining. Yes the metro Washington area will do better than most of the bubble markets but the bottom is a long way off. This is a 40 quarter market at least from peak to peak and from trough to trough. I am waiting for Dec 2011 before I buy anything and I will need to hold it for many years before I see a return.
ReplyDeleteI love the "just beginning" arguments.
ReplyDelete2006 - "the foreclosures are just beginning"
2007 - "the foreclosures are just beginning"
2008 - "the foreclosures are just beginning"
2009 - "the foreclosures are just beginning"
Is there ever a time when some element of this thing wont be "just beginning"???
"Is there ever a time when some element of this thing wont be "just beginning"???"
ReplyDeleteWell call it what you want...the end wont happen for about 3-4 more years from now. After those 3-4 years we will get a beautiful 5-10 more years of flat prices.
MRIS prices are out after years and years of prices going down month after month, median prices in Arlington Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun & PWC are UP
ReplyDeletehttp://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/09/northern-virginia-august-housing-sales.html
Thats 2 months in a row for NOVA - 4 months in a row for Immunington. Calls into question that whole 3-4 years til the end, much less the 5-10 years of flat prices.
"Thats 2 months in a row for NOVA....Calls into question that whole 3-4 years"
ReplyDeleteNah, a 2 month uptick in a 48 month slope down wont even be visible in a graph.
The bright side is that there will probably be at least 4 or 5 more minor upticks for you to brag about along the 4 year downward slope to realistic prices.
The only question that this tiny uptick brings up to me is how much longer can they keep your hopes up on your poor investment.
"Nah, a 2 month uptick in a 48 month slope down wont even be visible in a graph."
ReplyDeleteUhh you sure about that? Seems to me even the most blind fool in the world can see the blip on this second graph as its clearly unmistakable.
http://www.recharts.com/mris/mris_9.html
Its true though, the blip cannot be seen in Immunington and Immundria - since they never really fell, their "recovery" looks like more blips in a long flat near peak line weve seen since 2005.
But dont worry, Montgomery County Anon - Mo Co, PG, & DC are at their peak part of the downturn, and no sign they are abating...
"Seems to me even the most blind fool in the world can see the blip on this second graph as its clearly unmistakable."
ReplyDeleteAgreed - and the funny thing is they havent even updated it to show the up YOY results in August.
James - didnt you post this chart once before - kind of a "canary in the coal mine" as this may be the bottom? If you can stomach it, you might want to post that chart again.
http://www.recharts.com/mris/mris_9.html
James the anon at 9:21 was me, Partisan - I know you dont respond to anons.
ReplyDelete"Uhh you sure about that? Seems to me even the most blind fool in the world can see the blip on this second graph as its clearly unmistakable."
ReplyDeleteYeah its unmistakable right now. It wont even be visible after 4 years of steady declines though.
I cant wait for you guys to shut the hell up until the next blip that comes next year for a month or two.
I cant wait for you guys to shut the hell up until the next blip that comes next year for a month or two.
ReplyDeleteIrrational petulance is almost as entertaining as irrational exuberance.
Irrational petulance or not, there wont be another uptick until next summer sometime and you will most likely pipe down for the entire year. Thats what I find entertaining.
ReplyDelete