Sunday, September 06, 2009

Recession perhaps not over

Last month, as the unemployment rate took a reprieve from its upward spike, I speculated that the recession might be over. Friday's release of the August unemployment rate showed a resumption of the upward spike, suggesting that the end of the recession may be yet to come.

Here's a graph of the official unemployment rate over the past ten years. Gray bars indicate recessions:


Here's a graph of the official monthly job loss numbers during this recession:


For conspiracy theorists who don't trust the government, here are the job loss numbers from the private ADP Employment Report. Notice that ADP measures job losses in August as being roughly 50% higher than the BLS numbers:

Posted by at 5:21 PM
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2 comments:

  1. "DoctoRx"September 07, 2009 11:38 AM

    And of course the household survey (un)employment #s for August were dismal-much worse than the establishment data you present.

    The technicalities of "recession" are IMO less important than jobs/profits/national income--which collectively stink.

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  2. JamesSeptember 07, 2009 12:16 PM

    "DoctoRx" said...
    "And of course the household survey (un)employment #s for August were dismal-much worse than the establishment data you present."

    The very first graph I posted was from the household survey.

    The unemployment rate is always measured by the household survey. Payroll numbers are always measured by the establishment survey.

    Many economists consider the payroll (i.e. establishment survey) numbers to be more reliable because they aren't distorted by people entering and leaving the labor force.

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