Tuesday, September 29, 2009

July Case-Shiller numbers

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is up again:
“The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two composites and all metro areas are showing an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, the 10-City and 20-City Composites and 18 of the 20 metros areas increased in July. In addition, both Composites and 13 of the MSA have had at least three consecutive months of positive prints. These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.” ...

As of July 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the autumn of 2003, From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.5% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6%.

In terms of annual declines, despite the overall improvement, all metro areas and the two composites remain in negative territory, with 14 of the 20 metro areas and both composites in double digits. On the positive side, Cleveland, Dallas and Denver are nearing in on positive territory with July readings of -1.3%, -1.6% and -2.9%, respectively. Las Vegas posted its lowest index level in July since its peak in August of 2006, resulting in a 54.8% peak to trough decline.

In the monthly data, only Seattle and Las Vegas showed monthly declines. Thirteen of the 20 metro areas had three or more consecutive positive returns; and 16 MSAs and the two composites reported monthly returns greater than +1.0%.
The Washington, D.C. area is up 1.6% month-over-month (seasonally-adjusted), and down 9.8% year-over-year.

This table shows the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers for all twenty cities:

Click to enlarge the image.


  1. Non partisan - CAW CAW CAW!!!!

    All kidding aside, this is likely the last month of upswing this year, maybe a small one next month, but then you should get several months of down.

    In the last 5 months, case shiller DC has gone as follows

    Mar - 165.92
    Apr - 167.30
    May - 169.48
    Jun - 173.20
    Jul - 176.32

    With a little luck, and a lot of hard work, we may get back down to the 165.92 bottom, and then we can start working down to Noz's 135 (although he seems to be backing off that now), on the way to your 115 bottom.

    So dont give up all hope just yet on your "bell curves complete" theory - still, scouting out telephone poles around the groveton area for some good fat crows to cook up :)

  2. Sorry, that was me, Partisan - must keep to james strict no anon policy

  3. I still expect prices to fall in the fall and winter months. For those who want to buy a housing unit in the DC area or other areas winter 2010 might be a solid time.

  4. I agree David. I think the seasonal aspect of CS will come back pretty strong, so I am sticking with my call of High 150s - Low 160s to be hit this winter.

  5. Who cares what your call for the bottom is? It is irrelevant. Anyone's prediction given years ago does not account for actions taken as conditions change. Do walk around giving your Super Bowl prediction for 2012 too? WHO CARES!

  6. WHO CARES? Obvioulsy you do. It seems to make you bit angry.

  7. How dare you hold folks to their predictions about the future? Don't you know those predictions are irrelevant in the face of easily foreseable events? After all, as non-partisan so astutely observed:

    If government intervenes, then the natural order of things will be all screwed up. If the free market is allowed to rule, then partisan will eat a flock of crows...

    Also, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry christmas... heh.

  8. I care. I like to know what others think - listen to those that seem to be on to something, and call out those that are foolish in their predictions.

    I will be honest, there is no way I saw this bounce being this strong this year. Obviously there are some (partisan and especially David) who did. Ill take the word over those who have a good track record thus far over those who simply repeat "its going down" each and every month like a broken record. Its not what I want to see, but it is what it is.

  9. The only people that I read that say "its going down" every month are about 2 or 3 commenters on this blog. To be honest, I have read "this is the end" for over 2 years from every single major media source that Im pretty burned out.

    A nice uptick in the past 3 months doesnt phase me, cause I know that if prices dont drop anymore, it doesnt matter anyway cause prices will certainly not go back up.

    Realestate as a flipper investment is pretty much dead. So whats the rush to go out and buy?

  10. The DC market will bottom at 154, bounce back up to 395 by 2015 then fall to around 185-314 where it will bounce around between a 50-point range for at least 3 decades. If I'm wrong you can all call me out, I won't bother me one bit.