Monday, April 04, 2011

Boston, Massachusetts real housing prices

Click on the graph to see the full-size version. The blue line shows nominal housing prices. The red line shows inflation-adjusted housing prices.

Posted by at 8:21 AM

11 comments:

  1. GuestApril 04, 2011 10:54 AM

    This reflects a new paradigm in housing prices!

    Or, the past is prologue.

    ReplyDelete
  2. PartisanApril 05, 2011 10:30 AM

    James, hopefully I wont skew the vote by asking this, but regarding your question:

    "When will inflation-adjusted DC area housing prices return to pre-bubble levels?"

    by asking about inflation adjusted numbers, isnt the answer by definition "never"? Seems to me, absent another bubble, we will never get back above inflation adjusted peak pricing. In fact the only reason I voted "Later" versus "Never" is that I think we could have another bubble some point in the (distant) future.

    Personally, I think a more interesting/ realistic question is when will nominal DC area housing prices return to pre-bubble levels? Either that, or I am reading the question wrong...

    ReplyDelete
  3. JamesApril 06, 2011 1:56 AM

    Partisan, it appears you may be reading the question wrong. I am not asking when they will get back to bubble levels, I am asking when they will get back to pre-bubble levels. That is, I am asking when they will get back to the levels that were normal during the late 20th century.

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  4. JamesApril 06, 2011 2:18 AM

    To clarify some more, you seem to be interpreting the question as asking when will inflation-adjusted prices get back to pre-bust levels, rather than pre-bubble levels. The bust is the period of decline. The bubble is the entire period of abnormally high housing prices, including both the rise and fall.

    Unfortunately, there is no exact definition of "bubble". I usually assume (perhaps incorrectly) that most people have a general agreement on what a bubble is, even if they disagree on the specifics.

    The poll is not DC-specific, although I could add a DC-specific poll later if you guys want one.

    Don't worry too much about these polls. None of them are scientifically accurate.

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  5. RossApril 06, 2011 6:39 AM

    Great info here, thank you for all the work you are doing
    http://seculartrends.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  6. PartisanApril 06, 2011 3:43 PM

    Youre right I was reading the question wrong. Ok, so yeah, we will get there as time goes by and the left side of that red line continues to rise. However, given the lack of strong inflation, and given the slight increases in DC prices, its gonna take a lot longer than 2015 IMO.

    Thanks for clearing that up.

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  7. Analogue MetersApril 07, 2011 3:13 AM

    Real estate prices cannot be pinned down to a few solitary factors. As brokers love to tell you, location is next to godliness.

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  8. FluteApril 07, 2011 3:36 PM

    "Unfortunately, there is no exact definition of "bubble". I usually assume (perhaps incorrectly) that most people have a general agreement on what a bubble is, even if they disagree on the specifics."

    Long time bear "Leroy" used to claim 2003 is when the bubble started because the 1999-2003 large increases were just making up for the 1991-1998 flat pricing.

    Not saying thats true, but if so, it appears that we hit 2003 inflation adjusted prices at the 2009 bottom.

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  9. LynnApril 07, 2011 4:58 PM

    Seems odd to agree with Leroy, but I too believe that 2003 was the start for the same reason.

    This is why I voted "never". We are past the the bottom.

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  10. JamesApril 10, 2011 4:53 AM

    Well, I'd say my housing graphs pretty much disprove that hypothesis. Also, if the housing bubble started in 2003, then apparently I can predict the future two years in advance because I knew there was a housing bubble in 2001.

    I'm guessing that Flute, Leroy, and Partisan are all the same people. I don't remember a guy named Leroy, but Partisan seems to remember all his aliases.

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  11. LynnApril 12, 2011 9:15 AM

    James states that we were in a bubble in 2001. So his poll asks when we will get back to 2000 inflation adjusted prices. Is this correct James? Is this national numbers?

    ReplyDelete

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