Friday, April 22, 2011

Los Angeles housing prices

Click on the graph to see the full-size version. The blue line shows nominal housing prices. The red line shows inflation-adjusted housing prices.

Posted by at 7:27 AM

5 comments:

  1. JACApril 26, 2011 10:14 AM

    Case Schiller out today...Partisan, it appears round one of 23(?) is mine if I'm not mistaken. Your prediction, 183.5; my prediction, 182.5; actual, 181.3.

    A couple other points to note: 1) Not since February and March of 1997 have sales pairs numbers been as low as February 2011; 2) The January (previous month) price index for DC was revised down more than one percent from 183.75 to 181.59; 3) February was the 15th month in a row that DC's price index showed a YOY increase.

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  2. Partisan *April 26, 2011 3:16 PM

    "JAC said...Case Schiller out today...Partisan, it appears round one of 23(?) is mine if I'm not mistaken. Your prediction, 183.5; my prediction, 182.5; actual, 181.3."

    Right you are JAC. As of todays date, let there be no doubt, our tally is JAC 1, Partisan 0. Well done!

    In my defense, I made my predictions based on a Jan 11 starting point of 184.0, when as you noted, it has been downwardly revised to 181.59. Clearly, if I had known that was the true starting point, I would have gotten a better 1st prediction, but thats the way the cookie crumbles!

    In point of fact, its worth noting that this months 181.59 is subject to later revision, so the jury is still not totally out yet. Its a shame that CS puts out a preliminary number in an effort to be timely, that is often subject to later revision. Still I appreciate their efforts for accuracy.

    In addition to the final results, its going to be interesting to track our individual monthly records. Assuming this Feb # is not revised higher, I think you are going to win 5-6 months in a row before I have a chance at taking a single month. I still think you will run into trouble this summer given your call of a drop from 177 to 170, but that remains to be seen.

    In any event let the record again show, that based on what we know right now, the score is 1-0 in your favor.

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  3. JACApril 26, 2011 3:27 PM

    Hehe, you're right, the chapter is not yet closed on the first round as there will be revisions--despite the big January revision staring me in the face, I hadn't thought of that....

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  4. Partisan *April 27, 2011 10:02 AM

    No worries. Unless the Feb revision is huge, I think you are looking good. Besides, they can just as likely revise it down as they can up.

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  5. thejtrainApril 27, 2011 10:24 PM

    Case Schiller numbers out and no new post...?

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