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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The Bubble Meter Philosophy
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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Housing Prices Since 1970
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Again, convergence of the two lines is the new norm. It is a "new paradigm"! They will stay together and climb skyward, throughout eternity. Yep, the worst is finally behind us.
ReplyDelete{}
NVAR stats are out
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rbintel.com/statistics/northern-virginia
Once again, prices are up on a YOY basis, especially so in the immunozone & places like FFX & MoCo.
Its so funny that we still have permabears here who think this is "just a blip". Newsflash permabears, that "blip" is now entering its THIRD YEAR! Many of them refused to buy because they were fearful of continually falling prices. I cant imagine the panic they feel from prices that continue to slowly rise.
So sad...
Just wait...it'll happen. Of course we will all be dead and gone OR own our homes outright. Even a broken clock...
ReplyDeleteOoops, I forgot that James doesn't care about the DC area anymore. Probably thinks it best to concentrate on Detroit (or Vegas).
ReplyDeleteDebt is the new form of wealth Lynn. How much debt are you in?
ReplyDeleteI have no debt. No car loans, no student loans, no mortgage, no credit card debt. I rent month to month. No, I'm not indepedently wealthly. My net worth is only a smidge north of $500K. Do you think I should plunk down a big chunk of money to get in on the home debtorship bandwagon?
ReplyDelete— U.S. housing prices will continue to fall well into next year, continuing to put pressure on an American economy that is struggling to sustain its recovery.
ReplyDeleteThat is the view from Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist with Capital Economics.
“Most analysts expect prices to stop falling by the second half of this year — we believe they’re wrong,” Mr. Dales said Monday at the Capital Economic’s annual conference in Toronto.
Mr. Dales said further downside could stem from a vicious circle that has the potential to develop in the U.S. housing market this year. Such a scenario would involve falling prices coinciding with rising defaults, ongoing foreclosed sales and subsequently, even further price drops.
If that happens, said Mr. Dales, housing prices could fall by up to 20% from current levels. Dales said four obstacles still prevent prices from increasing in the short-term. Those include high unemployment, low credit scores and tighter credit conditions, widespread negative equity and a diminishing desire to own homes in wake of the housing collapse.
I could not care less whether you plunk down a big chunk of money or not. And while your debt situation may seem admirable, your net worth is chump change.
ReplyDeleteI'm not stupid Guest and the "debt is wealth" statement is stupid in my mind. Proper debt can get you alot of wealth, but you probably haven't figured out how that works. Average thinking brings average results. No risk, no reward. No guts, no glory.
ReplyDeleteThe only debt I have is mortgage debt and I assure you that it is being paid off at a fast clip by renters like you.
Own your home outright after paying thousands of dollars in interest and the grand total outlays exceed the purchase price; if, and only if, you do not sell before then and have to pay a snake oil salesman or saleswoman known as a real estate agent a hefty commission. It's obvious that your understanding of finance is at the elementary level.
ReplyDeleteI think the term you are looking for is "leverage". So you're a multi-millionaire who spends his spare time defending the housing market in the metro DC area? Is that an accurate statement?
ReplyDeleteHmm, this cannot be good news in the midst of the Spring "selling season":
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MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application activity decreases
by CalculatedRisk on 4/13/2011 07:20:00 AM
The MBA reports: Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
The Refinance Index decreased 7.7 percent to its lowest level since February 11, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased for the fourth consecutive week to 4.98 percent from 4.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.93 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the highest average contract rate reported since February 18, 2011.
Yep, it is all under my mattress. I'm not taking any risk in equities. You sure figured out my portfolio quickly! Now maybe you could turn your attention to that nuclear power plan in Japan. Can you fix that for all humanity now, please?
ReplyDeleteYep - its far better to just rent for the rest of your life. I plan to spend about $1,750,000 renting for the next 50 years or so. That will really show those who own their homes outright...
ReplyDeleteTake THAT homeowners!!!
Anymore? I never cared much about the DC area. David did.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the U.S. Federal Reserve, median household net worth in 2009 was $96,000. The mean was $481,000, but the mean gets distorted by a few very rich people at the top.
ReplyDeleteLol - sure thing James. You dont "care much about the DC area" is just about as true as me saying "I dont sockpuppet".
ReplyDeleteFact of the matter is, if prices in your Centreville hood were cratering, I suspect you would be shouting from the rooftops.
I live in a van...down by the river! Me and my 500,000 friends that I cuddle with every night - I am not a man of limited wealth!
ReplyDeletePartisan, you are a man of limited wealth.
ReplyDeleteOK, let me clarify. I'm not interested in BLOGGING specifically about the DC area.
ReplyDeleteBut an unlimited waistline!!!
ReplyDeleteHey "Frenchie" do you really plan on renting for the next 50 years?
ReplyDeleteNew realtytrac numbers are out. Normally at this time every month one of our angry bitter doomers pipes up with the national numbers (which up YOY), at which time I respond, giving them the beatdown by posting the DC area numbers (which are once again, down YOY).
ReplyDeleteIn lieu of that charade, I will go ahead and issue the preemptive beatdown now. Here are realtytrac numbers for our area, proving once again, its different here:
Foreclosure numbers by area
Arlington -47% YOY
Alexandria -41% YOY
Fairfax -33% YOY
Loudoun -49% YOY
PWC -6% YOY
DC -85% YOY (such a huge drop is likely due in part to a change in how they count in DC - I will check that out)
Montgomery -58% YOY
Prince Georges -36% YOY
Oh, and for the record, yes I am obese and have limited wealth. So noted. Anything to say about the stats doomers? No? OK, next...
Hey James, whats with the change in sign in methods? If the angry bitter anonydoomer/sockpuppeteer cannot post, the comments here will slow to a trickle. Plus now that Noz and Nonpartisan seem to have run away for good, who will I play with???
ReplyDeleteWahhhh, give me back my playtoys!!!
But you've just proven that you can post.
ReplyDeleteThere's only one other regular sockpuppet besides you, and that's Lemmy/Saxon/Frenchie/Anonymous.
ReplyDeleteYeah - its obvious its the same guy due to his obsession about (a) calling people obese (particularly exburbanites like yourself) and, more recently (b) pointing out how I and others are suffering from "limited wealth".
ReplyDeleteOther defining characteristics are (c) him denigrating the Del-Ray/ Beverly Hills neighborhoods in Alexandria (where he clearly wants to buy - but apparently cannot afford) and (d) whenever anyone points out prices are rising, his standard retort is along the lines of "oh yeah, how come this house (almost always linked via redfin) has fallen in value"?
Still, I let the sockpuppeting go because (1) I do it too and (2) he clearly doesnt want to be held accountable on anything, and I still can make each iteration of him foolish in the here and now by pointing to the facts (local trends, local prices, etc.)
Personally, I think this change may drive him away for good, and frankly that would be a shame because I really enjoy studying him. I think it would make a fascinating treatise on cognitive dissonance, and the depths one will go to delude themselves from believing what the do not want to believe - namely, that prices have bottomed. Thus, I for one hope this change does not make him go away for good. I guess we'll see.
Yes, but thats only because I got a full blown screenname. You may not believe this but there is at least one other bullish person (not me) who posts anonymous. This new policy will exclude other bulls such as the recently arrived "Lynn" and the very occasional post from "oboe".
ReplyDeleteOn the bearish side, you will lose the excellent contributions of Montpelier, JAC - both of which are quite reasonable in their thoughts. You will also lose the occasional post from "James Doakes" and a few other bearish types that are clearly in the mainstream.
Then again, you will also loose the angry anonytrolls - such as the retard that once thought montgomery county only had 4 cities (this may be the same person who posts as Lemmy/Saxon/Frenchie/Anon - not sure here). So I guess that is not all bad.
Still, Im skeptical this will work for you. I know you tried it once before, and your comments dried up to a trickle. Then again, considering that 50% of it is me & my sockpuppets laughing at angry Lemmy/Saxon/Frenchie/anon, perhaps you want it that way.
People can log in with their Facebook account, Twitter account, Yahoo account, Google (Gmail, Blogger, etc.) account, or Open ID account. Virtually everyone on the internet has an account with at least one of these companies.
ReplyDeleteIf someone has an AOL email address or AIM username, they can use OpenID.
The last time I tried it, people had to have a Blogger account. That is no longer the case.
Pretty much all my time is "spare". I'm not here to defend anything. I call it as I see it. I really don't care whether you buy or not. It's best for me if people rent.
ReplyDeleteoops, that was meant for "guesty". James how do I return to "Lynn"?
ReplyDeleteGuesty (Guest) - I thought the term "leverage" might be over your head.
ReplyDeleteHi Lynn. To change your login settings, you may need to log out first.
ReplyDeleteThen, if you're using OpenID, enter "Lynn" in the Display Name field.
If you're using Google or Twitter, you need to go to your Google or Twitter account and change what gets displayed as your name. Yahoo probably works the same way.
In the future, the Disqus comment system should remember you when you use the same computer. It should then remember you on any blog that uses Disqus for comments, not just Bubble Meter. This makes logging in easy after the first time.
Thanks James.
ReplyDeleteThe Bubble Meter is a blog dedicated to tracking the decline of the U.S. housing market. It is simple yet insightful and informative.
ReplyDelete