Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Prospects for a housing recovery are declining

According to CNN/Money, the prospects for a housing recovery have slipped "out of sight":
Any glimmer of hope that the housing market will stage a recovery in the upcoming months has vanished, thanks to the recent spate of bad economic news that has been making headlines over the past several weeks.

According to the latest analysis of home price trends in 384 markets based on the Fiserv/Case-Shiller Indexes, it will be well into the first quarter of 2013 before median home prices across the nation will even be on par with prices from the first quarter of this year.

And that's not saying much. During the first quarter of 2011, prices fell in 302 of the 384 housing markets tracked by the Fiserv/Case-Shiller index, dropping by an average of 5.1% year-over-year.

As a result of continued weakness on the jobs front and the debt ceiling fiasco, Fiserv pushed back its projections of a housing market turnaround by three months. Now, it doesn't expect home prices to start gaining any ground until the second quarter of 2012.

Instead, Fiserv expects median home prices to continue to fall by an average of 3.1% between March 31 of this year and March 31, 2012. After that, it expects to see prices increase by 2.7% until the first quarter of 2013.
So, Fiserv expects the 5-year-old housing bust to continue for another year.

1 comment:

  1. What is supposed to happen in 2013 to make housing turn around?  I don't see any reasonable justification for rosy predictions about the economy in general and housing in particular in the next several years... we could easily be in for a "lost decade", economically speaking.  What is going to increase the US GDP?  What is going to bring jobs back?