In the second quarter (Q2) of 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was down 5.9% since Q2 2010, but up 3.6% since Q1 2011:
Data through June 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index increased by 3.6% in the second quarter of 2011, after having fallen 4.1% in the first quarter of 2011. With the second quarter’s data, the National Index recovered from its first quarter low, but still posted an annual decline of 5.9% versus the second quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to their early 2003 levels.Keep in mind that Q2 is the traditional spring buying season, when home prices typically rise. The seasonally adjusted numbers from Q1 to Q2 were basically flat (up 0.08%).
As of June 2011, 19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up versus May – Portland was flat. However, they were all down compared to June 2010. Twelve of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have now increased for three consecutive months, a sign of the seasonal strength in the housing market. None of the markets posted new lows with June’s report. Minneapolis posted a double-digit 10.8% annual decline; Portland is not far behind at -9.6%. Thirteen of the cities and both composites saw improvements in their annual rates; however; they all are in negative territory and have been so for three consecutive months. ...
The chart [above] depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. ...
S&P Indices has introduced a new blog called HousingViews.com. This interactive blog delivers realtime commentary and analysis from across the Standard & Poor’s organization on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.housingviews.com, where feedback and commentary is certainly welcomed and encouraged.
Posts
More revisions from Case Shiller. JAC, for the record, our bet now (subject to any further revisions) is as follows.
ReplyDelete2011.....Partisan.....JAC.......Average...Actual...WinnerFeb......183.5........182.5.....183.0......180.24...JACMar......183.0........181.0.....182.0......177.58...JACApr......183.0........179.0.....181.0......178.44...JACMay.....183.5.........180.0.....181.75....179.53...JACJun......184.5........177.0.....180.75.....183.61...Partisan
Jun......184.5........177.0.....180.75Jul.......186.0........177.0.....181.5Aug......187.0........170.5.....178.75Sep......186.5........169.5.....178.0Oct......186.5........169.0......177.5Nov......186.0........168.5......177.25Dec......185.5........168.0......176.752012Jan......185.5........168.0.......176.75Feb......185.0........167.5.......176.25Mar......185.0........167.5.......176.25Apr.......185.5.......166.5.......176.0May......186.5........166.5.......176.5Jun.......188.0.......166.5.......177.25Jul........189.0.......166.5.......177.75Aug.......190.0.......166.0.......178.0Sep.......189.5.......166.5.......178.0Oct.......189.0.......166.0.......177.5Nov.......188.5.......165.5.......177.0Dec........188.5......165.5........177.0
Right now, you lead 4-1 with 19 more months to go. Its amusing how for 2 or 3 months now, I have gotten my first win, only to have it subsequently revised down such that my win is ripped away. I wouldnt be surprised if Jun is revised too such that you are up 5-0. Nevertheless, I remain confident that I will start picking up more and more wins as we get into August and beyond, when you had a jarring drop from 177 down to 170. I also feel pretty good (but not as good as I once did) about the end result, Dec 2012 coming in closer to my prediction than yours. That said, as of this moment, its a 4-1 trouncing in your favor, so savor the moment my friend...
Dammit - my old chart didnt format properly. James, quit messing with the blog formatting!!! :)
ReplyDeleteOh well, ignore that jumble of numbers, I will try to revise it repost it next month in a clear format.
Thanks for posting! I note the series was revised back to August 2010 and about 1000 sales pairs were added to the May numbers. Perhaps foreclosure or short sale transactions come in later...? Indeed, my forecast does dip into August (props to you for offering me a "re-do" when you first saw that)...maybe an earthquake or hurricane will come through the area to discourage offers and help me out. Or perhaps a bill doing away with the mortgage interest tax deduction...that one might sew it up for me...
ReplyDeleteAn interesting observation: your final prediction of 188.5 is about equal to the pre-bubble price index value in June 2004; my final prediction of 165.5 is about equal to the pre-bubble price index value in December 2003, just six months before. Sales pairs during that time were in the 7000-9000 range, as compared to 3000-4000 during this recent Dec-Jun period.
Partisan, I didn't change the blog formatting.
ReplyDelete2011.....Partisan.....JAC.......Average...Actual...Winner
ReplyDeleteFeb......183.5........182.5.....183.0......180.24...JAC
Mar......183.0........181.0.....182.0......177.58...JAC
Apr......183.0........179.0.....181.0......178.44...JAC
May.....183.5.........180.0.....181.75....179.53...JAC
Jun......184.5........177.0.....180.75.....183.61...Partisan
Jun......184.5........177.0.....180.75Jul.......186.0........177.0.....181.5Aug......187.0........170.5.....178.75Sep......186.5........169.5.....178.0Oct......186.5........169.0......177.5Nov......186.0........168.5......177.25Dec......185.5........168.0......176.752012Jan......185.5........168.0.......176.75Feb......185.0........167.5.......176.25Mar......185.0........167.5.......176.25Apr.......185.5.......166.5.......176.0May......186.5........166.5.......176.5Jun.......188.0.......166.5.......177.25Jul........189.0.......166.5.......177.75Aug.......190.0.......166.0.......178.0Sep.......189.5.......166.5.......178.0Oct.......189.0.......166.0.......177.5Nov.......188.5.......165.5.......177.0Dec........188.5......165.5........177.0
By the way, Partisan, if you had logged in you would have been able to go back and fix your edits. Just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteThanks a ton James. I didnt log in because I dont remember the account # and am too lazy to look it up. Again, thanks for posting this in its proper form.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome. I just had to go through and hit the return key in the right spot. Did you switch text editors or operating systems?
ReplyDeleteSometimes you have to toggle the "word wrap" option in notepad or it screws up...that's what I suspect here...
ReplyDelete