Thursday, March 23, 2006

Most Bubblicious State

Which is the most bubblicious state of them all? Why?


  1. CA has got to be the worst. It's gotten to the point where probably very few people are buying homes that they can actually afford. I'm sure that income overstatement is rampant. Looking at prices in the Bay Area, OC, SD, and LA, you'd think that everyone who lives there makes $250K+ a year.

  2. I agree with john in va. CA gets this distinction.

  3. California, easily. It's one thing for prices to be inflated, it's another for them to be far beyond what the vast majority of people can afford, and for it to be that way statewide. The bubble has extended everywhere in California except for the most remote outposts, and that's unique.

  4. I think that the question is kind of like asking, "How pregnant is she?" lol

    That said, I would say that CA is giving birth.

    Eric in dc

  5. Top Ten Bubbilicious States:

    1. Only 18 percent of the California population can afford the current average real estate prices. Places like SF, LA, and SD are in the stratosphere of bubbles.

    2. New York. Take out the Five Boroughs and Long Island and what do you get? OHIO. You get the picture.

    3. Florida. Condo Bubble heaven from Naples to Miami Beach.

    4. New Jersey. Wedged between Philly and NYC and no more land left to develop. The state will have to drain the swamps and toxic waste sites for housing development.

    5. Connecticut. You wouldn't know it if you lived in Hartford though.

    6. Arizona. Californians are sick & tired of paying $1 million for shacks. They are bidding only $850,000 for shacks in the Phoenix metro area.

    7. District of Columbia. OUR HOME TOWN BABY!!!!!!!!!!

    8. Maryland. You will only find good real estate deals either in Hagerstown
    or Salisbury.

    9. Washington. I think the Seattle-Tacoma market alone makes the entire state look bubbly.

    10. Massachusetts. The land of Teddy K., high taxes, The Big Dig Disaster and that bubbicious Beantown real estate market.

    Honorable Mentions: Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado.

  6. Connecticut is not over valued- prices are within the median income-Fairfield county is expensive and allways will be- Metro Hartford is fair value for what you get- and eastern Connecticut is even less- attracting evacuees from California, DC area, and the Katrina exitees from L.a, Miss....... and those tired of hurricane ravaged Florida- if anything these newcomers are driving up prices- job growth/income growth cannot really sustain higher prices. Prices now are just about right-if they rise more- then CT will enter bubble land.

  7. CA is a money hungry whore when it comes of self worth of a house,I am so tired of seeing neighborhoods full of illegals or multi-families trying to live in a SFH to make the mortgage.It's time for housing to collapse.I hope for homes to lose value so these donkeys can owe more than the house is worth.

  8. Californicate most definitely. Houses are built like junk, ie., slab on grade floors, drywall,postage stamp lots, painted particle board doors and trim. All of this even on a house that sells for 800K. Insane!

  9. As much as I root for the home state It's gonna be a race for the bottom between AZ and FL. CA will lumber along behind and pick up steam to join them.

  10. California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Colorado is on the fringe.

  11. I'm with robert, I think AZ and FL are going to fall apart first, CA will follow somewhere down the road.

  12. AZ BABY!!!

    Home of Ben "housing is crashing" Jones who's been preaching doom for years.

    That is some some shit.

  13. Las Vegas: The local economy is built entirely on discretionary income and real estate is built on speculators from CA. Both are on falling.

  14. We sold in the bay area 18 months ago and started renting.We have zillowed our old home and are dancing a jig. Yes it has gone up 12% since then. But we tripled our investment after buying in 1995 and the buyer of our house bid over and had 100% financing on a 2-1 arm. He sold two weeks ago for 50k more than he payed. After financing taxes and insurance guess who is not dancing a jig. California all the way.

  15. Skytrekker, I agree just moved from Boston to New Haven and I agree, its amazing the differences in housing cos. When factoring in the average income it becomes even more un-balanced. Boston is going to have some dramatic reductions in prices.

  16. I'm wondering if it's Florida?

    there seem to be some situatons that make us more vulnerable.

    Many coastal residents are about to lose their insurance. Newcomers are now having trouble getting policies at all. The hurricane season is two months (?) away.

    Over the last two years when a hurricane would strike, I would overhear these frantic women talking about how "they just moved to Florida two months ago from Jersey, Long Island or wherever, and they had to evacuate" and "this is so scary..."

    I think that possibly a lot of people's tropically destined mindsets were altered around August 2005 last year, when they saw what REALLY happens, especially when you're now risking a bubbly $500,000 instead of $100,000.

    I have two questions:

    1. What happens to a person who owes 1 million on a house that has been blown away?

    2. They always say aging boomers will buy here. How can anyone elderly ever want to retire to this storm prone peninsula after watching for months how badly the old folks fared through Katrina?

    I'm wondering if anyone else has had thoughts on this.

  17. Anon

    yes most of Connecticut is much cheaper then metro Boston, and Providence as well- except for Fairfield county- but that has always been the land of movie stars, wall street moguls and old money. The rest of Connecticut is amazingly low for the northeast corridor.
    I know the 'quiet corner' of eastern Connecticut has commutees from Boston, and in my locale east of Hartford I have met two people who after 15-20 years in Florida, have returned here to CT- reasons? Hurricanes- one guy had his home destroyed totally.
    I know a former Californian over in the Farmington Valley- but I agree the costs here are low- considering the states geographic postion and what it offers in the way of ammentities and culture, proximity to the sea, beach, mountains and NYC and Boston. Also there is privacy, little traffic and solidtude in the hills of eastern and western Connecticut- however the state is attracting newcomers for these reasons- driving up housing costs- the econony in Connecticut is lackluster- many of these newcomers cash out in pricy areas and move here for that cheap housing and the 'vaunted Connecticut life style'.

  18. callie,

    The hurricane issue in Florida is downright a disaster in the making. All those old people many of whom cannot evacuate on their own accord. The population in the Miami metro area is much greater the N. Orleans. A cat 4 or 5 hurrican that hit the Miami would be an absolute nightmare. Remember people trying to evacuate Houston; Miami has less evacuations routes.

    Then there is the insurance issue. The insuranse costs are prohibitave.

  19. Forget insurance costs. Pay off your home, then try to get reimbursed by the "Insurance Comapny" if it is lost to a hurricane. Paying off your home is NOT a secure investment, because the Insurance Companies DO NOT pay.

    I have owned real estate in Florida since the early 80's. I sold in October 05, and am now a renter by choice. Oh yea, the home I sold was my second starter home. The first home, a 3br/2ba that was paid for and a total loss (free and clear means nothing) has been tied up in litigation for years, with, guess who.

    Let the storms begin......

  20. Mid forties, little debt! Currently renting. I purchased a (new) home in san diego county in 93 for 180k, sold in late 02 for 375k......nice! That same home is currently selling @ almost 600k! I do quite well, as does my wife! We owe nothing to anyone.....except the phone company (wife has sisters in other states!) And i'll be damned if we can't afford a thing out here!! I have seen places i wouldn't buy if it was the only one left! BAD neighborhoods or should i say "hoods", tract type construction with upgraded cabinetry and appliances....etc! With ABSOLUTELY NO PROPERTY! NO YARD to speak of! Common walls with noisy neighbors, for 600+k......this is living the dream? Give me a break! We're being feed a line of S_ _ _ with a BIG shovel! Who wants to live like that? I remember $125 a sqft., now i've seen WAY over $250..........So now you tell me there Ain't No Bubble! I'm not even going to get into "creative" financing, interest only......poor suckers! I can barely afford gas (currently 3.60 seen over $4) So i will ignore the local real estate narcisists ( have you seen their ad's? Larger photo's of themselves than the listings!) that say, " You better jump in before it's too late", "Now's never been a better time", and rent away as the cool breezes of the deflating housing bubble opens up a whole bunch of new choices here or ?